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In my world, a second space race pushes humanity farther than it has ever gone before. Humanity has carved up to moon between superpowers (the U.S. and China) and second rate space powers (E.U., Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, etc.) with a combined population of 2.5 million, and has established on Mars, Ceres, Ganymede, and a blimp base on Venus.

The space race has also brought a storm of scientific advancement, including (albeit accidentally) the cure for old age, discovered while trying to find a cure for cancer, 75$ per kilo orbital launch using space hooks, "cheap" interplanetary travel using the moon, etc.

Eventually, Mars comes into the spotlight for exploitable deuterium deposits and natural resources, and tens of thousands of colonists follow suit. At the height of Mars' habitation, the perfect storm strikes the Earth, literally. A storm of solar flares knocks out 57% of the world's power grid. Hundreds of millions starve within a month, the world economy collapses overnight, anarchy ensues. Even worse, six months after the solar storm, a fungal epidemic breaks out like highly infective Botulism. It tears through the human population, turing cities and buildings into uninhabitable wastelands. Nobody can stop it.

At the end of this ordeal, 38% of the world's population is dead. Due to the nature of the disease, fungal spores linger in buildings where the diseased were, turning cities into disease vectors for decades. Technologically, humanity on Earth is in the gunpowder age. Politically, they are is in the dark ages. It will take centuries for man to recover.

Mars, now cut off from earth, still has an advanced industrial base, all of mankind's complete automation, a population of ~10,000, and all of mankind's technologically advancements - including biological immortality.

tl;dr Space age Earth got rekt, Mars got good, and now the Martians are stranded

My Question is

  • Given a birth rate of 44.2 per thousand people yearly, biological immortality, and a death rate of 5 per thousand people yearly, what will these martians population be after the 317 years it take for humanity to come back from the Apocalypse?

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  • I'd just like to point out that I definitely, for certain didn't make an entire world just to solve a math problem on my homework. –  Aug 30 '17 at 18:47
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    This is a lot of fluff wrapped around a math problem. It isn't a question about building a world. – sphennings Aug 30 '17 at 19:04
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    @sphennings It's called a joke, jeez. –  Aug 30 '17 at 19:05
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    38% die still leaves a population of several billion. The gunpowder dark ages couldn't come close to feeding this many people. Max is probably less than a billion. – Josh King Aug 30 '17 at 19:16
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    Net increase per year 0.0442 - 0.005 = 0.0392. In 317 years the population will increase by a factor of 1.0392³¹⁷ = 196619.6. Times 10000 that makes 1,966,195,811. Almost 2 billion people. You are welcome. -1. – AlexP Aug 30 '17 at 20:17
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    I do not think that your Earth scenario would work. A solar flare would trigger EMP, true. However, military and government equipment is hardened against it, so if you still have 40% of power grid working and militaries functioning Earth should not be facing social breakdown and anarchy. Military research facilities will stay functioning as well. So, considering that they discovered immortality, they should be able to take control of the fungal epidemic. Once a fungicide is developed disinfection of cities and buildings will be a matter of short time. – Olga Aug 30 '17 at 21:46
  • @Olga It would. A third of the developed worlds population is liable to starve to death within the first month , military or no military. Mass starvation is how you get mobs and riots. Also , who will feed the military? Who will pay the military after the economy collapses? How will they stop secondary epidemic? How will they function properly without satilites, helicopters, vehicles, ships? How can they stop a black death level epidemic while dealing with all that? Fungicidal resistance can evolve , and the ability to lengthen telomeres doesn't directly correlate with epidemiology. –  Aug 30 '17 at 22:54
  • Historically, societal collapses are very rare. In times of need, people tend to band together and help each other. Strength is in numbers and humans know it really well. Looting and rioting are quite rare. Most of the looting is done to get survival supplies. However, police brutality and lack of faith in a state increase rioting and looting for personal profit. Still, the majority of the population stays concerned with helping each other to survive. – Olga Sep 01 '17 at 21:58
  • Your military equipment will stay intact (it is protected from EMP). Your police should be functioning, too (same reason). You have power grid operating at 40% capacity. It will take time, but you can restore communications and transportation in a reasonable time (developed countries). Military, National Guard, and police will be deployed to maintain order and to rebuild supply chains. The history of the WWII shows that people will join the military even if they know that they are going to die because it is the only way to protect their loved ones. You will have deserters, but most stay. – Olga Sep 01 '17 at 22:04
  • The level of genetic science required to successfully lengthen telomeres in humans is very high. A civilisation that can do that can study and understand a much simpler organism. Perhaps we are talking bioterrorism. But then you have to explain how terrorists managed to create and deliver deadly fungi to many locations while transportation and communications do not function properly. Makes for an interesting story... – Olga Sep 01 '17 at 22:14
  • @Olga You misunderstand, 40% of the World's power grids are out, ie most of the countries on the sunlit side of earth have *no* power. Assuming this is winter may to august, almost none of the countries in the northern hemisphere have power *at all. It is the European countries, the U.S. that have zero* power, nation's like Mexico, Brazil, Arabia, and India have some power, and nation's like South Africa and Argentina are mostly unaffected. –  Sep 01 '17 at 22:37
  • @Olga And Excerpt from The Week " Peter Pry, executive director of the federal EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security, told Congress this year that a major EMP could cause widespread "starvation, disease, and societal collapse" that could lead to the deaths of tens of millions of people. " –  Sep 01 '17 at 22:40
  • Even better. You have unaffected countries that can organise a relief operation... at a cost. That would be really exciting to read. Also, China is apparently unaffected. Today they are one of the world leaders in genetical research. – Olga Sep 01 '17 at 22:41
  • @Olga You are overly optimistic. See, if the most developed countries in the world have power wiped out, what do you think will happen to the world economy? –  Sep 01 '17 at 22:44
  • Let us continue this discussion in chat. – Olga Sep 01 '17 at 22:45

1 Answers1

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Population x (Birth rate - Death rate)^years

(44.2 - 5) /1000 + 1 = 1.0392

1.0392^317 = 196619.6

196619.6 * 10000 = 1.97 Billion People

Josh King
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