Questions tagged [prediction]

Prediction of unknown random quantities, using a statistical model.

Prediction is contrasted with the more specific term in Cressie & Wikle Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data, p. 17:

Uncertainty in data, processes or parameters means that there will be uncertainty in conclusions. Statisticians call this drawing of conclusions in the presence of uncertainty, statistical inference (or just inference); in this book, inferences will be either estimation of fixed but unknown parameters, or prediction of unknown random quantities. (Notice that "forecasting," namely concluding something about the future, is a special case of "prediction.")

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How to rate successive predictions of the outcome of an event which are made while it is taking place?

Consider the scenario of making successive predictions about the outcome of a sporting event while it is taking place. I will use tennis as a concrete example because it has clearly defined moments at which it is sensible to make a new prediction…
M. Berk
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When to admit that your target cannot be predicted?

Assume you have a dataset, say churn. You sit down, do the data cleaning, the data engineering etc. etc. Since you want to predict if a customer churns, you decide on a logistic regression as a benchmark and get around 0.5 accuracy (it's a balanced…
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Predicting weekly nearly periodic events

The context I was asked not to give the full context here, but I hope, the following will suffice: There are human caused events usually occurring about weekly. The event as seen by us has no data, just the timestamp. Imagine a user entering some…
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Choosing a null hypothesis to answer the question "Are my model's predictions better than random?"

I'm currently trying to evaluate a model of metabolism which aims to predict whether deleting individual genes will cause a growth defect (there are ~850 genes in total). I know from experimental data which genes show slow growth, so I'm mainly…
razacaz
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Prediction interval

I calculated an 80% prediction interval of the outcome of interest (proportion of patients, average temperature etc.) based on my previous study. Is it true that in the future study I will receive the outcome within the calculated prediction…
Oleg
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Prediction algorithm in ctree() function in R party package

I have a model that predicts categorical response using the conditional trees, ctree() function in R package "party". I am able to get predicted responses on the new data set after training the model on the training set. My question is about…
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Measuring prediction quality given discrete predictions of a continuous dependent variable

Say we have a variable that can assume all values between 0 and 1 and we have a system that predicts measurements of this variable providing estimates in terms of 6 discrete levels (let's say 0, 0.2., 0.4, 0.6, 0.8 and 1.0). Now we are getting the…
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Prediction close to a "pole". What can I do?

I have x and y related in the way $x = a + \frac{1}{b+y}$. x is measured. I am interested in y. a and b are known. y must be $>=0$ from physics, x is also always $>0$. Solving for y: $y = \frac{1}{x-a}-b$. Measurements of x are about normal…
bdecaf
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Predicting relationships between variables from independent measures

I have a series of experiments where a certain set of parameters (let's call them P1, P2, ...) have been quantified in single cells. For technical reasons it is not possible to quantify all of these parameters at the same time, so I have different…
nico
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Predicting next item from sequence of items

I am trying to create a score writing application and will like to implement an algorithm that predicts the next chord (item) a user is likely to write from the previous sequence of chords (items) that he/she has already written. Some background:…
Poh Zi How
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What statistical method would I need to employ to predict a school's attendance if I know previous five years' attendances?

I have attendances month by month (September-June) for a given school X for the following school years:2011-2012, 2012-2013, 2013-2014, 2014-2015. I also have the attendance for students at school X for the current year 2015-2016 up to the current…
Dleightful
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Analyzing previous records to predict expected outcomes

I'm one of the directors of a language school. We teach students in different levels (CEFR A1 A2 B1 B2, if you are familiar). In each level students are evaluated in 10 different exams. At the end of each level, they are either successful and move…
Ugur
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What techniques can be used determine the degree of which one set of data can be predicted from another?

Specifically I have to determine to what extend the prices of some houses in one year can be predicted from the prices of some houses in a previous year. The data set is split up into houses of various types. I have made numerical summaries of each…
Flose
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Prediction of a bounded variable

I have some data on retail stores (it's about 4000x100 entries). I would like to predict sales volumes potential which is hidden from me. I observe some sales volumes which is bounded by sizes of stores (number of salesmans in store, area of a…
amisev
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Predicting answer to question based on answers to other questions

My data is many thousands of responses to ~2000 multiple-choice (2 to 4 options) questions. Most of the questions have not been answered by most people. ie. a typical question will have <5% response rate. I'm interested in finding out which…
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