Questions tagged [odds]

The odds of an event is the ratio of the probability that the event will happen (p) to the probability that it will not happen (1-p).

The odds of an event is the quotient of the probability of the event divided by the probability the event will not occur: $$ \text{odds}=\frac{\text{probability}}{1-\text{probability}} $$ The odds of a fair coin are $1=\frac{.50}{.50}$. If a probability is $<50\%$, the odds will be $<1$, and if $>50\%$, then $>1$. Odds can range from $(0,~\infty)$.

In some ways, it can be more useful to work with odds than probabilities, even though people often feel the latter are more intuitive. Specifically, odds and odds ratios are very helpful in logistic regression.

Outside of a statistical context, people are familiar with odds being presented in a manner such as $3:2$. This format is called 'Las Vegas' odds (actually, the 'odds' presented in a casino are not the actual odds of winning / losing, but rather the payouts associated with winning or losing). In a statistical context, however, we divide through and present a single number (e.g., $1.5$).

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Calculating odds for a cricket match

I'm writing a program to help me gamble on cricket, but have run into a wee problem. I've got loads of data from previous games already and have compiled various stats from it. I have calculated that after 1 over of a 20 over match, the average…
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Can individual odds ratios be added to get one pooled odds ratio to compare to a reference group?

I have the admission for 4 different hospitals (coded as binary) which are regressed on a list of independent variables. The multinomial logistic provides the odds ratio (O.R.) for independent variable for each hospital and then compare this to a…
Owen
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What are the odds of predicting a series of coin tosses to a certain percentage?

So I'm stuck on a problem. It's related for some work I'm doing but I'll keep it simple here. Here's the scenario: I flip a coin 11 times and I record the results without telling you what the results are. Now you have to try and predict what I…
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How to calculate probability of rain today given today percentage

Given this: If the probability of rain in a given day is 0.65, what are the odds that it will rain today ? Would I setup as P(A) = it rains 65% But with the missing today forecast, what and how would I setup P() for the conditional? Is not this…
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Odds of impostor?

Assume I left a hotel room key at the concierge to be picked up by my friend John Doe. The key is put in an envelop, "John Doe" is written on the outside of the envelop, and the people at the concierge will give the envelop containing the key to…
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If I have the implied probability of something how do I convert that into decimal odds?

I'm really struggling to find examples of converting implied probability back into European decimal odds. Say I have the implied probability of a horse to win at 66% of the book (no overrounds for now) , and there are 4 horses racing in total. How…
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Is there a possibility to calculate the odds of the following scenario?

The following is a true situation that I faced and I was wondering if it is possible to roughly estimate the odds of it happening (like you sometime see rough estimations of "The odds of you winning the lottery are one to ....."). About 2 years ago,…
riorio
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Calculation of odds accuracy - what am I measuring here?

Disclaimer: I am an amateur at statistics and I’m trying to learn by my own. Please bear with me if the question below sounds like utter nonsense to you guys. In an experiment where you have Team A playing a game of any sports against Team B, both…
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The reason for saying "5 out of 10" instead of "1 of 2"?

I'm just being curious, i have seen on some places, statistical results where they give them in form of "10 of 100.000" or "5 of every 10". I don't have any statistical knowledge over my personal experience/reading around. But basic maths tell me…
Noman_1
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Do odds increase over time based on brute force?

Attempting to understanding a statistical concept which I'm positive is basic stats, but that I currently don't understand. Say that there's a one in ten million likelihood of an outcome happening during an event, that happens a given count of…
blunders
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Interpreting odds in a logistic regression

I am having some problems interpreting the odds. I run a logistic regression for an out come 'Yes' or 'no'. My reference category is 'No'. I have 2 variables and this are the log(odds) and the odds: Variable A -> It is a integer with values 2 to 80.…
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Color sequence odds on roulette

Consider a fair roulette game with 18 red numbers, 18 black numbers and 1 green zero. At each round, the probability of winning by betting on red or black is 18/37, which is 48.6%. If we play a lot of rounds and count how many sequences of N…
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What are the selection odds

If 30 ice-cream sticks are numbered 1-30 and placed in a bowl, what are the odds that when picking two at a time, and then returning them to the bowl, any random pair will never be picked?
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How to calculate CI for Odds ratio, Given Cohens d and ci for Cohens d( data is given as mean)

I have means(x) and Std deviations of 2(intervention and control) groups. I wanted to find Odds ratio with CI. I calculated the cohends d and CI first using,https://campbellcollaboration.org/escalc/html/EffectSizeCalculator-SMD1.php then…
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What is a simple intuitive definition of Odd?

From what i read "The probability that an event will occur is the fraction of times you expect to see that event in many trials. The odds are defined as the probability that the event will occur divided by the probability that the event will not…
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