Questions tagged [granger-causality]

Granger causality exists when past values of a variable $X$ contains information about another variable $Y$ beyond the information in past values of $Y$.

The Granger causality test seeks to establish the directional relation between two time-series $\lbrace X_t\rbrace^{T}_{t=1}$ and $\lbrace Y_t\rbrace^{T}_{t=1}$ by testing whether one of the two is useful in predicting the other. Consider the two regressions: $$\begin{align} Y_t &= \sum^m_{k=1}\alpha_k Y_{t-k} + \sum^m_{k=1}\beta_k X_{t-k} + \varepsilon_{1,t} \\[5pt] X_t &= \sum^m_{k=1}\gamma_k X_{t-k} + \sum^m_{k=1}\delta_k Y_{t-k} + \varepsilon_{2,t} \end{align}$$ where the errors $\varepsilon_{1,t}$ and $\varepsilon_{2,t}$ are uncorrelated. If $\beta_k$ are jointly significant in the first regression but $\delta_k$ are jointly insignificant in the second, we say that $X$ Granger-causes $Y$. This is referred to as unidirectional causality. Equally $Y$ may Granger-cause $X$ if $\beta_k = 0$ jointly and $\delta_k \neq 0$ jointly.

Bilateral causality refers to the case when both $\beta_k \neq 0$ and $\delta_k \neq 0$, whilst $\beta_k = 0$ and $\delta_k = 0$ is called independence.

Note that Granger causality does not necessarily prove a true causal relationship between the two variables. It just tests whether one event frequently occurs before the other and thus is a reliable predictor of it. The post hoc ergo propter hoc ("after this, therefore because of this") principle is generally not regarded as "true" causality.

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Difference between Granger causality and Instantaneous causality?

What is the difference in terms of inference? Does Instantaneous captures the short term cause and effects?
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Did I interpret this Granger causality analysis correctly?

I ran my data set in EViews and I got this: My book says "[Clive] Granger suggested that to see if A granger-caused Y we would run (the equation) and test the 0 hypothesis that the coefficient of the lagged A jointly equal to zero. If we can…
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Working out Granger causality of time series where the series are described mathematically

Previously when doing coursework I would be given say two time series $x,y$ which are sampled for $t=1,\ldots,1000$ (or some other length) and I would be asked to calculate Granger causality from them. What I would do is fit two models for each, so…
HBeel
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granger causality - using a different lag than the one selected by ACF/PACF

I'm testing for causality between two series. PACF and ACF select lags that, when used, do not yield significance in the causality tests. Playing around with the lag I find that I get causality significance for other lags...What are the problems…
Rebecca
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Can Granger causality be two ways?

If $X$ causes $Y$,$X \rightarrow Y$, as defined in Granger causality, is it possible that $Y \rightarrow X $? How can we prove if it is not possible? That is the relationship is one-directional.
rando
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Granger-Causality and Physics

Considering the conversation in "Does y = f(x) imply x granger-causes y", I have a deeper question about Granger-Causality. Suppose I have a leaf flying in the wind and it can only fly back and forth in one direction. I know that this leaf is flying…
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Does $y=f(x)$ implies $X$ Granger-causes $Y$?

Factor in the information from the question "Does causation imply correlation?", "Mathematical Definition of Causality", and "How to formally tell is one time series affects another". Let $y = f(x)$, where $f$ is continuous and differentiable. Does…
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Each time point is from a different sample

I have a question about Granger causality with a specific dataset. Let's say I give 50 mice some treatment and I am interested in seeing how gene expression in the heart changes over 5 days. Since I have to harvest the heart in order to test gene…
Vitaly
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Granger /Wald test interpretation

I have the following results from a Granger test. Can someone tell me how to interpret them? I understand that p.val(ue) < 0.05 is significant for rejecting the null hypothesis. BUT do ftest or r2(squared) add any additional information? A g-cause…
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Building a model for Granger-causality (presence or absence of it) over time

I am currently trying to formulate an empirical design that works as follows. In a first step I regress a variable $y_t$ on another variable $x_{t-1}$ and controls $Z_t$: $$ y_t=\beta_1 x_{t-1}+Z_t\gamma+\varepsilon_t. $$ Then I test for Granger…
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significan​t lags in causality test?

significan​t lags in causality test? [Cross-posted to R-Sig-Finance] Hi all, I have a question regarding Granger causality test. I have searched on Internet intensively and extensively and have used both the "grangertest" function in lmtest package…
Luna
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What is the minimum number of time periods for Granger causality test?

What is the minimum number of time periods required to reliably conduct a Granger causality test? I have a time series with only six data points, and I would like to know if it is possible to conduct Granger causality tests on it. Specifically, I…
Tripartio
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Granger Causality coefficient comparison

I am working with a time series data and found that $a_t$ Granger causes $b_{t+1}$ and $b_t$ granger causes $a_{t+1}$. The results were obtained through Stata. With the coefficients obtained, is it possible to determine which Granger causal…
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VAR model and Granger causality issues

Is it necessary to create a stable vector autoregressive (VAR) model satisfying all the necessary checks to create it and then and only can we say that Granger causality holds true?
Moshay
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X does not Granger cause Y and Y does not Granger cause X

Is it possible to have no causal relationship between two variable? Example: X does not granger cause Y and Y does not granger cause X. Are these results okay or there are might be an error in the regression?
Luo
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