Questions tagged [extreme-value]

Extreme values are the largest or the smallest observations in a sample; e.g., the sample minimum (the first order statistic) and the sample maximum (the n-th order statistic). Associated with extreme values are asymptotic extreme value distributions.

Extreme values are the largest or the smallest observations in the sample, e.g., sample minimum (the first order statistics), sample maximum (the n-th order statistic), the second smallest/largest values (the 2nd and the (n-1)st order statistic, respectively), etc. Extreme values are often associated with outliers or catastrophic events, and have application in modeling floods in climatology, value-at-risk in finance, etc.

With a simple negation, the problems concerning the minima and the smallest values can be converted into problems concerning the maxima and the largest values. Hence, the extreme value theory results are typically formulated in terms of the right tail and maxima.

The central result in the extreme value theory concerns the asymptotic distribution of the maximum (the Fisher–Tippett–Gnedenko theorem). In large samples, an appropriately scaled sample maximum follows one of three possible distributional families: Gumbel, Frechet or Weibull distributions. The common functional form for the three is sometimes referred to as the generalized extreme value distribution. Another theorem in extreme value theory is the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem. It concerns the asymptotic distribution of values above a certain threshold. These peak over threshold values can be well approximated by the generalized pareto distribution. Other results of extreme value distribution theory concern the spacings; i.e., the distance from the largest to the second largest value, the second largest to the third largest value, etc.

Related tags: maximum, minimum

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Frechet and subexponentiality

In the context of extreme samples from distributions, I note that some subexponential distributions (such as the lognormal) are in the "domain of attraction" of the Gumbel/exponential class of distributions. But are all distributions in the "domain…
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Thin tails and the Generalized Pareto

Rewriting my question: On this Mathworks page: https://www.mathworks.com/help/stats/generalized-pareto-distribution.html it is said (as many textbooks say) that "Distributions whose tails decrease exponentially, such as the normal, lead to a…
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Extreme Value Theory - Normalizing constants for Generalized Extreme Value distribution

I'm working on Extreme Values Theory, and I found the following sufficient condition to find the domain of attraction of a distribution and the corresponding normalizing constants: For sufficiently smooth distribution $F$ with density $f$, define…
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How to find the $(a_n,b_n)$ for extreme value theory

In the solution to this question (Extreme Value Theory - Show: Normal to Gumbel), the OP asked for the sequence $(a_n, b_n)$ such that $\Phi(a_nx+b_n)$ converges to the Gumbel CDF. Not only did I not able to understand the derivation in the accepted…
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Given the location and scale parameters of a Gumbel distribution for variable X, how does one calculate the mean and variance of X^2?

I am working with predictive models for wind speeds, which have been given as Gumbel distributions. I need to convert the wind speeds to wind pressures using the formula: $Pressure = Density * Velocity^2$ So my question is how do I determine the…
user45928
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Conceptual or mathematical motivation for the three extreme value distribution types?

What motivates, justifies, gives rise to the differences between the Gumbel, Fréchet, and Weibull distributions? Glen_b's comment indicates that they are distributions for extreme values generated by different kinds of distributions in IID…
Mars
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How to estimate the maximum value from a set of data with errors?

Say I have a set of n measurements. The measurement process has a known error. I can't assume that the true values being measured follow a normal distribution. How can I estimate the actual maximum or minimum value of the set given this information…
Charlie
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Behavior of mean excess plot

Disclaimer I know that diagnostics with mean residual life plots are extremely liable to subjective interpretation. I was just curious about a consistent behavior I saw running several POT analyses and wanted to know what the community had to say…
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Why my fitted genextreme distribution have no mean/variance?

I have the following code for estimating a generalized extreme value distribution from scipy. from scipy.stats import genextreme ys = [22.058823529411764, 22.058823529411764, 22.058823529411764, 22.058823529411764, 22.058823529411764,…
SmallChess
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Return level plots for GEV-distribution

I was reading An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values by Stuart Coles, and I ran into a problem whilst trying to replicate a basic return level graph in R. For context, I first present the definition of a return level plot (p.49 of…
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Estimating the number of bottles in a set

Say a distillery released a limited edition set of whiskey bottles but do not say how many have been released... If the bottles are individually uniquely numbered (bottle No.55, for example), is it possible to estimate the total number of bottles…
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If the density functions $f_1, f_2$ each are in domains of attraction $MDA(\xi_1)$ and $MDA(\xi_2)$, what can we say about $0.5f_1+0.5f_2$?

My question is about the maximum domains of attraction $MDA(\xi)$ from extreme value theory. I would like to be able to say statements such as "since $f$ and $g$ both are in $MDA(\xi)$, $f+g$ is also in $MDA(\xi)$", or "since $f\in MDA(\xi_1)$ and…
Har
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Minimum of Unit-Exponentials Plus Constants

Define $e_i$ to be iid random variables drawn from an exponential distribution with parameter $\lambda=1$. $a_i$ are numerical constants. I am interested in the probability that $a_1 + e_1 < a_2 + e_2$ ie, that $a_1 +e_1$ is the min. The solution…
ivo Welch
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Having trouble explaining the failure in probability logic involved in extrapolating short term sports trend to a full game

I am watching basketball with a friend and the Pistons lead the Hawks 42-18 after the first quarter. My friend then says this is just as likely as the Pistons winning the game 168-72. This seems wrong, but I don't know how to explain it. I know it…
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Find significantly high values compared to others in a 1D array

I have a number array and i want to pick only significantly big numbers from that array using some statistical method. I tried calculating the average of the array and then subtracting each numbers from that avg and picked only values which are less…
HarshaXsoad
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