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Let $z_{t}$ be ARMA(1,1) process. $$ z_{t+1} = \phi z_{t} + \theta\varepsilon_{t} + \varepsilon_{t+1} $$

In order to have a stationary process we must have $|\phi| < 1$. This is clear. The auto-correlation function is for $\theta : = \theta$ and $\theta : = \frac{1}{\theta}$ is unchangeable, as discussed here ARMA model with MA coefficient greater than 1

Though, the auto-covariance function (and, consequently, the variance) does depend on $\theta$, i.e., for example for $\tau =0, 1$: $$ \gamma(0) = \sigma^2 \frac{1 + 2\phi\theta + \theta^2}{1 - \phi^2} $$ and $$ \gamma(1) = \sigma^2 \frac{(\phi + \theta)(1 + \phi\theta)}{1 - \phi^2} $$

The question: why do we use then condition $|\theta| < 1$? Do we need it in some computational algorithms which use the auto-correlation function?

ABK
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  • Hi. Read example 3 on page 8 of this. https://www.asc.ohio-state.edu/de-jong.8/note2.pdf. – mlofton Nov 06 '19 at 15:11
  • Dear @mlofton, I see... therefore, is there any way to estimate the variance of noise to non-invertible process? – ABK Nov 06 '19 at 15:18
  • Like I said in the other thread, you'd have to understand the python code (assuming it's correct ) and then tweak it to implement the opposite constraint. Not easy but , as far as I know, the only way. Or, convert arima to state space, run the KF algorithm ( first use prediction error decomp to get variances ) and hope that the $\theta$ and $\phi$ estimates satisfy the constraints. – mlofton Nov 07 '19 at 16:08

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