Questions tagged [uncertainty]

A broad concept concerning lack of knowledge, especially the absence or imprecision of quantitative information about a process or population of interest.

Uncertainty is a broad concept referring to lack of knowledge and ways to model that lack (such as with probability distributions of model parameters), as well as quantitative evidence thereof, such as measures of variation or dispersion in data.


In one specialized field, uncertainty is defined by the BIPM Guide to the Expression of Uncertainties in Measurement as:

parameter, associated with the result of a measurement, that characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand

Uncertainty should not be confused with error. The error is the actual difference between the measured value and the true value. The error is usually not known; if it were known, it could be corrected. The uncertainty is rather an estimate of the statistical distribution of errors around the true value. For example, one might repeat a measurement 100 times and the 100 measurements will have mean a certain mean and standard deviation. The mean could be the reported measurement, and the standard deviation the reported measurement uncertainty.

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Laymen Statistics Talk

What does statistics has to say about this layman back and forth: Layman A: The fact that John spilled his glass of wine on the table at that exact moment is peculiar. Never have I seen a man so masterful of his glass. Layman B: Well, then,…
blackened
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Estimating error from repeated measurements

Say we use a ruler to make a measurement of the width of a block of wood. We get some value like 4.2 +/- 0.1 cm, where the error is our estimated error of our ruler's precision. Now we have four new individuals measure the same block of wood, and…
C. Reed
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Two measurement devices vs 1 device multiple measurements

If I have two temperature probes measuring the same substance will the average of the two increase the uncertainty? Propagation of uncertainty says yes but I'm trying to justify it in my head. Treating each probe as another…
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source of statistical uncertainties

What's the source of statistical uncertainties in measurements? I understand that random noise can be a source of the uncertainty. Also sometimes the signal itself is randomly determined. In that case, the random nature of the true value is the…
Nownuri
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Uncertainty of extrapolation (curve fitting)

I have estimated (MC simulated) some probability values y, that each depends on a value of x between 0 and 1. Say, for instance, that the vector x contains $x_{1} = 0.1,\ \ x_2 = 0.2,\ \ x_3 = 0.3,\ \ x_4=0.4,\ \ x_5 = 0.5,\ \ x_6 = 0.6,\ \ x_7 =…
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To use or not to use a variable that contains information w.r.t. uncertainty

The data I'm looking at is concerned with percentages of people who would recommend a hospital. E.g. NOT PROBABLY DEFINITELY FREQ hospital_1 10.0 80.0 10.0 100 hospital_2 20.0 …
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Uncertainty formula if measured "best" value is zero

If the uncertainty of a function $f(x,y)$ is given by: $$\delta f = |f_{best}|\sqrt{ \left( \frac{\delta x}{x_{best}} \right)^2 + \left( \frac{\delta y}{y_{best}} \right)^2}$$ what do we do if $x_{best}$ or $y_{best}$ are zero? Presumably, $\delta…
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Uncertainty on standard deviation and rms

Say I have a time-series of a parameter $y(t)$. Each value of $y(t)$ has an uncertainty of $\epsilon_y$ due to how it was measured. What is the uncertainty on the calculated rms or standard deviation? As an example, say I was measuring a voltage…
James
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Estimate confidence in multiple choice test

There is multiple-choice test and for every possible answer option my algorithm gives some score of how much it is likely to be the right one and picks the one with the maximal value as the answer. If there are 4 options A B C and D and the…
Sasha
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Uncertainty so small it rounds to 0.0?

So I was refreshing my physics knowledge and someone gave me a question about uncertainty. I figured it would be easy, right? So I calculated the uncertainty from the error bars of raw data, and got roughly ±0.03. However, the units were only…
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How does the unit affect the propagation of uncertainty?

Say I'm measuring two lengths, $L_1$ and $L_2$, with a measuring stick in cm. For concreteness, let's say that $L_1 = 10 \pm 1$cm and $L_2 = 20 \pm 1$cm. I now want to compute the ratio of those two lengths, $R = \frac{L_1}{L_2}$, and the absolute…
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Propagation of uncertainty

I have a problem to understand the concept of propagation of uncertainty. To be honest there are two issues am confused about. (1) Do we need to use sum of uncertainties or sum of squares? (2) Derivation from Taylor approximation produces approach…
Celdor
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How to deal with nested uncertainties?

Suppose I have some quantity $Z$ I'm estimating that has an uncertainty $\sigma_Z = f(X)$, where the function $f(X)$ is known. Say that $X$ also has some uncertainty $\sigma_X$ (which has some numerical value). Can I calculate a numerical value for…
wht
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Determine significant figures from a scale/weight reading

(Hope this is the right forum, otherwise please bear with me) This is not a homework assignment but just some of the stuff you come across and stop to wonder.. Either I forgot how to do it or my old school books forgot to teach me. Say I have a…
Norfeldt
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Uncertainty propagation in open equations

I don't know if this is the proper place for asking this kind of questions and I apologise in advance if it isn't, but anyways: is there a way to propagate linear uncertainties (i.e. through first-degree partial derivatives) for functions in an open…