Statistical Analysis Stack Exchange
Statistical Analysis Stack Exchange

Questions tagged [risk]

Risk has several meanings in different contexts within statistics

Risk has several meanings in different contexts within statistics and is often used in combination with other terms, such as Bayes risk.

According to Everitt & Skrondal (2002), risk is a term often used in medicine for the probability that an event will occur, for example, that a person will become ill, will die, etc. In decision theory, risk describes a situation in which an agent is facing a random variable with known outcomes and their probabilities (Luce & Raiffa, 1958) or either known or unknown probabilities that exist and can be estimated or somehow else arrived at (Knight, 1921).

References:

  • Everitt, B., & Skrondal, A. (2002). The Cambridge Dictionary of Statistics (Vol. 106). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Knight, F. H. (1921). Risk, uncertainty and profit (Vol. 31). Houghton Mifflin.
  • Luce, R. D., & Raiffa, H. (1958). Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey. New York: Wiley.
215 questions
5
votes
1 answer

How can I estimate the likelihood of being in a traffic accident on the US101 by day of week and time of day?

My plan is this: Find source of data about when and where accidents occurred on the US 101 Find a source of data about traffic volume on the same road Subset the data to include only accidents that occurred on the US101 between San Francisco and…
William Gunn
  • 151
  • 4
2
votes
1 answer

Relating lifetime risk to prevalence of a disease

I am somewhat confused about lifetime risk. The National Kidney Federation released data saying that the lifetime risk of a white American male needing dialysis was around 3%. However, considerably less than 1% of the population actually are on…
arif khwaja
  • 21
2
votes
0 answers

Estimating risk parameters from observed choices

My background is in labor economics/applied micro but I am currently working with data collected from a field experiment. My experimental/micro skills are rusty to say the least. In my data, I observe individuals choosing one of the choices $A, B,…
o.k.
1
vote
0 answers

Risk function equation

How to show risk function = (3-theta)^2? I tried using the mean squared error formula to no avail.
critterTI
  • 11
1
vote
0 answers

How does the risk calculation of the EMA / Paul-Ehrlich-Institut regarding AstraZeneca vaccine side effects look like?

When the german government announced that they would stop administering AstraZeneca because of potentially deadly side effects, I was wondering what kind of risk calculation would be happening in the background. I made a quick, probably…
Thomas Hirsch
  • 111
1
vote
0 answers

Independent and Identically distributed random variables with value at risk

Suppose that $W_1$ and $W_2$ are i.i.d. and $P(W_i>x)=x^{-1/2}$ and $x$ is greater than or equal to $1$ and $i=1,2.$ How do you show that $P(W_1+W_2>x)=(2\sqrt{x-1})/x$? I know it involves calculus either differentiation or integration but I am not…
ikolo
  • 11
  • 1
1
vote
1 answer

Relative risk calculation for effect modification testing

I was trying to replicate an example from Knol et al (Knol 2012, Int J Epidemiol, Recommendations for presenting analyses of effect modification and interaction) but I dont get the same results as the authors, who give the following example data…
Erik
  • 25
1
vote
1 answer

Difference between uGarchRoll Value at Risk and manual calculations

I am forecasting an equity return density using the uGarchRoll commandin R studio, specifying the standardized t-distribution as error distribution. The uGarchRoll command already forecasts the Value at Risk. However I find that the values…
RDA
  • 11
1
vote
0 answers

Risk communication and in epidemiology

I have looked at the risk of hospital admission in the general population and in those with lung disease when exposed to an environmental toxin. The patients with lung disease are also part of the general population. My results look as…
user1754610
  • 133
0
votes
0 answers

Estimating CVaR for non-Gaussian distributions

Calculating CVaR needs Gaussian distribution, however, what if the distribution is not Gaussian? Or the distribution is unknown? Can I use many Dirac Delta functions to estimate a distribution and estimate the CVaR？
GoingMyWay
  • 1,361
  • 3
  • 14
  • 29