Questions tagged [mape]

The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is a point forecast accuracy measure. As a percentage, it can be compared between forecasts for time series on different scales, and it is easily interpreted. However, it is asymmetric (underforecasts' MAPEs are bounded at 100%, while overforecasts' are unbounded), potentially leading to biased forecasts. The MAPE is undefined if any actual is zero.

For forecasts $\hat{y}_1, \dots, \hat{y}_N$ and corresponding actuals $y_1, \dots, y_N >0$, the MAPE is defined as

$$\text{MAPE} := \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^N\frac{|\hat{y}_i-y_i|}{y_i}.$$

The MAPE is typically expressed as a percentage.

The MAPE has some shortcomings that should be kept in mind.

Variants on the MAPE (Tashman & Green, 2009, Foresight) include using the forecast instead of the actual in the denominator, or using the average of the forecast and the actual, yielding the so-called "symmetric MAPE" (sMAPE), which has a different kind of asymmetry (Goodwin & Lawton, 1999, IJF).

Alternatives to the MAPE as a point forecast accuracy measure include the , the and the .

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Can I use sMAPE when my actuals and prediction have postive and negative values?

I used several datasets and make predictions on it with many algos (ARIMA, Theta, Smoothing, etc.). Until now the current outome as well as the predictions (of the datasets) were strictly positive (always greater than 0). To evaluate the quality of…
S12000
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MAPE comparison between 2 or more runs of model

I am new in analytics field. Our team runs multiple model which does the demand forecasting for multiple product. To check whether the model is performing good or bad we calculate the MAPE and decide about model performance. I have multiple…
RohitM
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