Questions tagged [cointegration]

Two or more non-stationary, integrated variables are cointegrated if there exists a linear combination of those variables which is integrated of a lower order, e.g. stationary.

Two or more non-stationary, integrated variables are cointegrated if there exists a linear combination of those variables which is integrated of a lower order, e.g. stationary. This implies that there is some equilibrium relationship between these variables.

Formally, for a $k\times 1$ vector of $I(d)$ variables $x_t$ with $d=1,2,\dots$, cointegration requires that there exists a vector $\beta$ such that $\beta^\top x_t$ is $I(d')$ with $d'<d$. For $\beta^i$, $i = 1,...,r$, $x_t$ is cointegrated with cointegrating rank $r$ and $\beta^i$s are called cointegrating vectors. A relevant special case is when $x_t$s are all $I(1)$ (e.g. random walks) and $\beta^\top x_t$ is $I(0)$.

Note that usually $\beta$ is normalized by restricting one of its elements by setting it equal to one. Also variables must be integrated of the same order, e.g. an $I(1)$ and an $I(2)$ variable cannot be cointegrated. However, between a set of three (or more) variables which are not integrated of the same order there may be a linear combination of the first two variables that cointegrates with the third.

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Cointegration-based feature selection

I have a basket of time series (stock prices). I want to find the N (fixed or not) time series that will best replicate the basket in the sense that combination of them will be best cointegrated with the basket. Beside using the N series that have…
Zarbouzou
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Help for Johansen cointegrating vectors test

I used the Johansen cointegrating procedure to see how many cointegrating vectors are available in the long run and obtained ONE cointegrating vector from Maximum Eigenvalue statistic and FOUR cointegrating equations from the Trace Test statistic.…
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Cointegration between more than two variables

If four variables are cointegrated, does this mean that each two of them are cointegrated? Can we regress only two of the four variables assuming they are cointegrated, or do we need to check for cointegration of the two variables? For me if four…
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Linear combination of processes yielding higher order of integrarion

Is it possible to have an integrated random walk process by linearly combining finite number of random walks? Is it possible to have a random walk process by linearly combining I(0) processes? Thanks
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Eviews VECM with a cointegrating rank of 2

Using Eviews, I have performed a Johansen cointegration test on three variables, suggesting 2 cointegrating relationships. I am now trying to estimate a VECM model, but when following Brooks (2014) pg. 410, the author finds 3 cointegrating…
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Co-integration for processes integrated of order zero

I read that two (or more) time series that are integrated of order 1 (or higher) can be co-integrated. I have three time series, and all three of them are stationary processes. Can they be co-integrated?
Mary
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How to proceed after not finding cointegration with Johansen?

I am trying to determine if 3 stock indices are cointegrated. After running the cointegration test it fails to reject no cointegration. I have used AIC to determine the appropiate number of lags, but at different lags I get some cointegration. What…
Adrian
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Pairs Trading: What statistics to use for analysis of Cointegration using ADF Test?

I have just begun to study Pairs Trading strategy as a part of my assignment for an internship. My purpose is to analyse any two stocks/commodities for possible co-integration. I made a VBA code where I take the OLS of the data and test the residual…
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(A,B) is cointegrated while (B,A) is not cointegrated

I'm using the Engle Granger Cointegration Method to analyse stocks and do some pairs-trading studies. While some pairs (stock A, stock B) are cointegrated with a p-value < 0.05, sometimes (stock B, stock A) returns a very high p-value. I'm using…
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Is is ok to use credit spreads to account for a drop in time series for vector error correction model?

I am doing a time series analysis on a quarterly basis from 1990 to the third quarter 2012. Some of the time series had a drop in 2008 because of recession then resumed upwards. This drop is rather steep. I am thinking of using credit spreads since…
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Phillips-Ouliaris test in R by po.test

Phillips-Ouliaris Test is a cointegration test, and in my understanding it should be commutative. That is, the test result for series x and y and the test result for series y and x should coincide. However, the `po.test' function in tseries package…
Gura
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Why cointegrate a variable if we make it stationary?

So I have a data set, it containss 4 variables (GDP, consumer price index, interest, house price index) and around 88 sample. Quarterly data from years 1995-2007. Two of them look like this https://i.stack.imgur.com/GXyiP.jpg and I difference…
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Cointegration Johansen test with the presence of exogenous variables

I have a system 4 I(1) variables. Normal Johansen test in Eviews tell me there are two cointegrated relationship. Yet, if I include an exogenous variable, namely log(oilprice) the test gives me three cointegrations. I am not sure I understand the…
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i have a problem while interpretation of my results, when there is no cointegration

how can i intepret these results as both trace statistics and max eigen values inticate that there are no cointegration
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Westerlund cointegration test results

I have 2 questions on the Westerlund cointegration test. I have panel data from year 1995 to 2015. 1) How do you decide the lag? So for example, if i were to include 3 lags, it says i need at least 22 observations But i have some series that have…
Olivia
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