Questions tagged [bic]

The definition of the Bayesian information criterion is usually given as $$\operatorname{BIC} = -2 \text{ln}(L) + k\text{ln}(n)\,,$$ where $\ln(L)$ is the maximized log-likelihood of the data given a particular model, $k$ is the number of free…

I have fit time series data to two models using SPSS. Their BIC values are as follows: Normalised BIC, Winters: -.111, ARIMA: .048 I understand I must pick the lowest BIC value as this tells us the best model. I am wondering how to…