5

I am looking at some software code that performs conditioning on random variables. For example, one can have a set of random variables which have a multivariate normal distribution associated with them and then you can condition on a given variable to take on a certain value and then get the associated conditional distribution for the rest of the variables.

Now, I notice that distributions which are univariate do not have this method implemented. But for the sake of completeness, for example for a univariate Gaussian when we actually observe that the variable takes on a certain value, shouldn't the conditional distribution be a point mass with zero variance?

Luca
  • 4,650
  • 1
    @Luca said: "for example for a univariate Gaussian when we actually observe that the variable takes on a certain value, shouldn't the conditional distribution be a point mass with zero variance?". No. The observed value is just one of the possible realizations of the r.v. It doesn't determine its distribution. – Zen Feb 23 '14 at 00:43
  • @Zen: Thanks for the answer. I guess the conditional probability does only make sense when thinking of a joint distribution over a set of random variables. – Luca Feb 23 '14 at 01:13
  • 2
    See https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/584907/919 for a software solution. – whuber Aug 22 '23 at 13:47

1 Answers1

2

Let $X$ be a random variable with density function $f(x)$. You ask about the conditional distribution of $X$ given that $X=x$. And, intuitively, since there is no uncertainty left, we now simply know the value of $X$, the conditional distribution is a probability atom of 1 at $x$ (contradicting the comment by @Zen).

Some details. Since we cannot conditioning directly on an event of probability 1, take first a small region containing $x$ and denote it $dx$. Then $$ \DeclareMathOperator{\P}{\mathbb{P}} \P(X \in dx \mid X \in E) = \frac{\P(X \in dx \cap X \in E)}{\P(X \in E)} = \\ \frac{\P(X \in E \cap dx)}{\P(X \in E)} $$ and in the density case, shrinking $dx$ to $x$, in the limit we get the conditional density $$ \frac{f(x)}{\P(X \in E)} $$ Now, if we take $E = dx$, the quotient is 1, and in the limit shrinking $dx$ to $x$ we get a probability atom at $x$.

  • I had to do a double-take on the notation $X \in dx$, but I see it is an element of the tangent space. – Galen Aug 21 '23 at 23:08