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Part 1: Suppose we have some sample data (univariate). We believe that this data came from a Normal Distribution. Using MLE, we can show that the mean estimator will be unbiased but the variance estimator will be biased:

$$L(\mu, \sigma^2 | x_1, ..., x_n) = \prod_{i=1}^{n} \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi\sigma^2}} e^{-\frac{(x_i-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2}}$$

$$l(\mu, \sigma^2 | x_1, ..., x_n) = -\frac{n}{2} \log(2\pi) - \frac{n}{2} \log(\sigma^2) - \frac{1}{2\sigma^2} \sum_{i=1}^{n} (x_i - \mu)^2$$

Taking the derivative with respect to $\mu$ and setting it equal to zero gives:

$$\frac{\partial l}{\partial \mu} = \frac{1}{\sigma^2} \sum_{i=1}^{n} (x_i - \mu) = 0$$

$$\hat{\mu} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} x_i = \bar{x}$$

Taking the derivative with respect to $\sigma^2$ and setting it equal to zero gives:

$$\frac{\partial l}{\partial \sigma^2} = -\frac{n}{2\sigma^2} + \frac{1}{2(\sigma^2)^2} \sum_{i=1}^{n} (x_i - \mu)^2 = 0$$

$$\hat{\sigma}^2 = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} (x_i - \bar{x})^2$$

However, we can see that this will be a biased estimate:

$$E[\hat{\sigma}^2] = E\left[\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} (x_i - \bar{x})^2\right]$$ $$E[\hat{\sigma}^2] = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} E[x_i^2 - 2x_i\bar{x} + \bar{x}^2]$$ $$E[\hat{\sigma}^2] = \sigma^2 - \frac{\sigma^2}{n} \neq \sigma^2 $$

Usually, we can correct for this bias by adding a correction factor - but let's not to do this for argument sake. For example, perhaps this is some complex distribution and its difficult to verify if the estimator is biased or not.

Part 2: It seems to me that the variance of the mean estimate will also be biased, since it will depend on $\hat{\sigma}^2$ (i.e. $s^2_{MLE}$ ): $$s^2_{MLE} = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}(X_i - \bar{X})^2$$ $$\bar{X} = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}X_i$$ $$\text{Var}(\bar{X}) = \text{Var}\left(\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}X_i\right) = \frac{1}{n^2}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\text{Var}(X_i) = \frac{1}{n^2}n\sigma^2 = \frac{\sigma^2}{n}$$ $$E\left(\frac{s^2_{MLE}}{n}\right) = \frac{1}{n}E(s^2_{MLE}) = \frac{1}{n}E\left(\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}(X_i - \bar{X})^2\right) = \frac{1}{n}\cdot\frac{n-1}{n}\sigma^2 = \frac{n-1}{n^2}\sigma^2$$

$$E(s^2_{MLE}) = \frac{n-1}{n}\sigma^2 \neq \frac{\sigma^2}{n} $$

My Question: Suppose we take this biased estimator $s^2_{MLE}$ and calculate it many times using random bootstrapped samples, thus creating an empirical sampling distribution of $s^2_{MLE}$. In this situation (i.e. using the biased estimator), will the properties of this bootstrapped/empirical sampling distribution (e.g. average variance) be equal to the calculations had we used the unbiased estimator (adjusted with the correction factor)?

That is, in finite samples - can the bootstrap method overcome limitations stemming from flawed parameter estimation? Or will the bootstrap still produced biased results if the underlying estimation is done incorrectly? Can the bootstrap correct the bias of an "incorrect estimator" in certain situations?

  • 2
    Yes, one of the original objectives (and a standard output) of the bootstrap is a bias correction. – whuber Feb 25 '24 at 14:21
  • Wow, thats really cool! Is it possible to mathematically prove this? – Uk rain troll Feb 25 '24 at 15:20
  • @pnaxso: See https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/393098/bootstrap-based-bias-correction, https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/488217/use-bootstrap-mean-to-remove-bias-from-the-statistic, https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/129478/when-is-the-bootstrap-estimate-of-bias-valid – kjetil b halvorsen Feb 25 '24 at 19:45
  • Be careful, as there are several types of bootstrap. Some of them can handle both bias and skew in estimates, but other commonly used bootstrap methods can exacerbate such problems. In addition to the links provided above by @kjetilbhalvorsen, look at the discussion in this answer, which includes some links to relevant literature, and to the rest of that page. – EdM Feb 25 '24 at 19:55
  • Thanks everyone! Can someone please help me put together an answer for this question? I am combing through all this information right now... – Uk rain troll Feb 25 '24 at 20:20

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