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Let's say we want to calculate the standard error for a statistic that proportion of heads per 1000 coin flips.

So let's say we flip a coin 200 times. We see heads 50 times.

$\hat{\mu}$, our estimate for the mean of the statistic, is 0.25 * 1000 = 250.

How do we calculate our estimate for the variance or the standard error?

Do we use n = 200 or do we use n = 200/1000 since our variance is proportional to flips / 1000? Do we need to transform every observation to be divided by 1000?

If we use $E[X/1000 - \hat{\mu}/1000]$ then the variance is tiny. So that doesn't make sense.

In general, I'm confused on this point.

Update

@Glen_b My thought was:

We assume the variance of each trial is $\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})$, or over all trails is $n\hat{p}\hat{q}$.

We want to sum the variances of the trails and adjust for our rate.

So $Var(\sum_i^n {X_i}) = \sum_{i=1}^n n\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})/rate$ (rate=1000).

We seek $Var(\sum_{i=1}^n {{X_i}\over{{n}\over{1000}}})$ We can then, by propagation, pull out the ${{1000 \cdot 1000}\over{n^2}}$.

${{1000 \cdot 1000}\over{n^2}}Var(\sum_{i=1}^n {X_i})$

Plugging what we showed three lines earlier and canceling $n$ and $1000$:

${{1000}\over{n}}\sum_{i=1}^n \hat{p}(1-\hat{p})$

Our SE is thus:

$\sqrt{{{1000}\over{n}}\sum_{i=1}^n \hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}$

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    Hint: is there a difference between the proportion of heads per 1 coin flip, 10 coin flips, 1000 coin flips? – Alex J Jul 19 '23 at 04:27
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    You're looking at a binomial random variable times a constant. Use properties of variance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance#Propagation – Glen_b Jul 19 '23 at 04:36
  • @Glen_b Just Var(phat*n_flips)/(1000^2) ? – Estimate the estimators Jul 19 '23 at 04:50
  • I think there is a misunderstanding here. OP is asking "what is the proportion of heads per 1000", to which I would respond "there is no difference between a proportion of heads per 1, per 100, per 1000." There is a difference if you are interested in the variance of the COUNT of heads per 1000, though, which is where @Glen_b's answer comes in. – Alex J Jul 19 '23 at 05:13
  • Indeed. That is what I'm asking. I could no doubt have asked the question better. Unfortunately, have to ask these q's late at night when I'm spent.. @AlexJ – Estimate the estimators Jul 19 '23 at 06:48
  • @Glen_b, for the standard error, it seems we should divide by the observed number of counts, n, and only use the propagation against the variance formula. I'm saying this because we still only have n random variables to sum when computing the variance of the statistic, even if we propagate by a larger constant. ref: https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/89154/general-method-for-deriving-the-standard-error – Estimate the estimators Jul 19 '23 at 07:02
  • What I was getting at: 1. "So let's say we flip a coin 200 times. We see heads 50 times." -> $X=$ number of heads. $\text{Var}(X)$ is the variance of a binomial. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution#Properties - the $n$ you need is the number of trials in the binomial experiment that generated $X$. $;$ 2. $\text{Var}(kX) = k^2 \text{Var}(X)$. Suitable choice of $k$ will give $kX$ equal to whatever rate or proportion you care to look at and then the variance will follow from that choice of $k$. The standard error of that estimated rate will be the square root of that. – Glen_b Jul 19 '23 at 11:23
  • @Glen_b Dont we need to still divide by n for se? – Estimate the estimators Jul 19 '23 at 14:10
  • I draw your attention to "Suitable choice of k will give kX equal to whatever rate or proportion you care to look at" ... if your $k$ didn't have an $n$ in it, maybe you made a mistake. – Glen_b Jul 20 '23 at 02:07
  • That makes sense. @Glen_b Can you take a look at what I added to the original question? I attempted to solve. – Estimate the estimators Jul 20 '23 at 22:42

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