0

I have a stochastic process $X_{t}$ that has probability $p(t)$ that $a < X_{t} < b$ with $p(t)$ a decreasing function. I want to find the random variable $D_{t}$ which describes the duration $X_{t}$ has been within $a$ and $b$ up until $t$. Let $Y_{t} \sim$ Bernoulli($p(t)$) denote whether $X_{t}$ is in the interval then $D_{t}$ can be given by: $$D_{t} = \int_0^t Y_{u} \ du$$

Is there any way I can recover the PDF or CDF of $D_{t}$? I've tried by taking the limit of the Poisson-Binomial distribution/infinite convolutions but haven't had any luck. My intuition tells me that $$\mathbb{E}[D_{t}] = \int_0^t p(u) \ du$$ but I'd really like to have the PDF/CDF.

Update:

Thanks to comments, I realize I need to add additional information:

I also have that the joint density for two points in time $t_{1} > t_{0}$ is given by $$f_{X_{t_{1}},X_{t_{0}}}(x_{t_{1}},x_{t_{0}}) = f_{X_{t_{1}-t_{0}}}(x_{t_{1}}-x_{t_{0}}) \cdot f_{X_{t_{0}}}(x_{t_{0}})$$ and more generally the joint density for $n$ points in time is $$f_{X_{t_{n-1}},\dots,X_{t_{0}}}(x_{t_{n-1}},\dots,x_{t_{0}}) = f_{X_{t_{0}}}(x_{t_{0}})\prod_{i=1}^{n-1} f_{X_{t_{i}-t_{i-1}}}(x_{t_{i}}-x_{t_{i-1}})$$

  • Recover the PDF from what information? Surely the PDF must depend on the properties of the process $(X_t),$ about which you state almost nothing aside from the decreasing property of $p.$ – whuber Dec 07 '22 at 22:21
  • @whuber I know $p$, and since I could write $D$ as function of "known" random variables I figured I should be able to "know" $D$. This could very well not be the case but I don't know what else would be needed – Hudson Hochstedler Dec 07 '22 at 22:34
  • 1
    What you lack is information about full distribution of the process: $p$ gives you relevant information only about the marginal distributions. – whuber Dec 07 '22 at 22:49
  • @whuber Could you be more specific on "information about full distribution"? I know the the PDF and CDF of $X$ for any $t$ (which is how I know $p$), I just didn't include that in my question since I didn't see how that would be used. Is this what you mean? If so, I can add that to the question. – Hudson Hochstedler Dec 08 '22 at 04:06
  • See https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/160733/919 for some useful definitions and characterizations of stochastic processes. To determine $D_t,$ you need information on the joint distributions of the various $X_t$ and $X_s.$ – whuber Dec 08 '22 at 15:04
  • @whuber I think I see what you are saying. The conditional density $f_{X_{t}|X_{s}}$ is equal to the density of $X_{t}-X_{s}$ for $t>s$. So the joint density should be $f_{X_{t-s}} \cdot f_{X_{s}}$. I'm not sure if this is enough, but I can add this to my question if that is beneficial. – Hudson Hochstedler Dec 08 '22 at 18:08
  • That kind of information is crucial. Without it, your problem has no definite solution. Note that to fully define any stochastic process, you need more than just the marginals or the bivariate joint densities: you need all the finite-dimensional joint densities. – whuber Dec 08 '22 at 18:11
  • @whuber By all finite-dimensional joint densities do you mean all $f_{X_{0},X_{1},\dots,X_{n}}$ where $X_{i}$ is short hand for $X_{t_{0}}$ for any $n$? – Hudson Hochstedler Dec 08 '22 at 19:02
  • Yes: see https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/566582/919. – whuber Dec 09 '22 at 14:55

0 Answers0