In Bayesian statistics, logistic regression can be facilitated by priors, a link function, and a likelihood choice of either the Bernoulli or Binomial distributions.
My question is whether this design choice affects assumptions of independence per observation.
Consider runners running a race, and we are interested in the completion rate (full course within X minutes.) Each runner in observed data will have run the race at least once. However, some runners have run it dozens of times whereas others have run it a handful of times.
Given this context, I have two assumptions.
- The Bernoulli likelihood would assume that each run of the race, regardless of runner, was an independent trial. (eg a single data generating process generating iid samples.)
- The binomial likelihood would assume independence of runners. (Y iid data generating processes, each conditioned on runner y.)
Are my assumptions here valid?