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I am trying to classify a target group from controls using a SVM. I am predicting probabilities, and noticed that when predicting the target class, the SVM performance was horrible (AUC ~0.2). This made me think, if I predicted the control class, then shouldn't the performance improve - which it did.

Essentially, I have an algorithm that accurately predicts the opposite of what I want.

Is there anything inherently wrong with this, and would it be ok to use the probability that the target group are controls as a way of classifying the target group?

Additionally, does anyone have any idea why the performance is poor predicting the targets, but good at predicting controls?

jmero
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