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I'm having a difficulty to figure out how to distribute 2 percentages fields in 3. Let's say we have 2 teams. I think they both have chances 50/50 means that the draw has the percent of 50, 25 for the first team and 25 for the second team. So i'm stuck in finding the formula to calculate Draw chances. Another example, if i believe that first team win percent is 70% and second team win is 30%. What would be the % for the draw?

I have tried to divide each team % by 3 and multiply by 2, then deduct sum of these results from 100%, but obviously, in every case I get 33% for the draw. For example I get 33% for the draw in case if chances of both teams are 50/50, instead of 50 for the draw, 25 for first team and 25 for the second team.

Here's a screenshot of the Available and Required data. As you can see, i have an input data only for Team A and Team B. Is there a way to find the Draw value?

enter image description here

Thank you!

UPDATE: Used BINOMDIST() to obtain following result: enter image description here

Zaur
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1 Answers1

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The word field is puzzling. (Maybe a faulty translation into English.) I will try to guess what you are trying to do. If I guess incorrectly, please edit your Question to explain more clearly and try to give your own solution; even if your try is not exactly correct, it will may give someone a clue toward a more useful answer.

If you believe each of two teams has an equal chance of being chosen, and you make 100 random choices, then the split will not always be 50 for Team A and 50 for Team B. In $n = 100$ random choices the number $X$ of times Team A is chosen has the distribution $X \sim \mathsf{Binom}(n=100, p=1/2).$ Here are results, sampled in R, of $10\,000$ such counts for Team A among 100 choices.

set.seed(121)
x = rbinom(10^4, 100, 1/2)
summary(x)
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
  30.00   47.00   50.00   49.99   53.00   69.00 

The most likely value of $X$ is $50,$ and half of the time the number of choices for Team A will be between 47 and 53. But you should not rule out getting as few as $35$ or as many as $65.$ Here is a histogram (blue bars) of my simulated results. Red dots indicate the the theoretical binomial probabilities for each value of the random variable $X.$ [Even with as many as $10\,000$ iterations the practical results do not exactly match the theoretical binomial probability model, but the model still provides a useful guide for what results to anticipate.]

hist(x, prob=T, br=cp, col="skyblue2", main="50-50 Random Choices")
 k = 0:100; pdf = dbinom(k,100,.5) 
 points(k, pdf, col="red")

enter image description here

By contrast, if you believe Team A will be randomly chosen $70\%$ of the time (a 70:30 split), then the appropriate binomial distribution for random choices of Team A out of 100 is $X\sim\mathsf{Binom}(n=100, p=0.7).$ Results for $10\,000$ such choices are shown below. On any one choice the probability of choosing Team A is $\frac{70}{70 + 30} = \frac{70}{100} = 0.7 = 70\%.$

set.seed(2021)
x = rbinom(10^4, 100, 7/10)
summary(x)
  Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
 50.00   67.00   70.00   70.06   73.00   87.00 

enter image description here

BruceET
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  • Thankks! By Field I meant actually cell in Excel sheet. – Zaur Jan 06 '21 at 09:28
  • SOK. Are binomial samples with success probabilities $p=.5$ and $.7$ what you had in mind? It seems you can simulate binomial samples in Excelee this page – BruceET Jan 06 '21 at 09:45
  • Yes, correct. I have never done binomial simulations. Can you please, advise where to start with? – Zaur Jan 06 '21 at 09:45
  • Link in last comment. Or google `binomial distribution Excel' for many other Internet pages. I don't use Excel for statistical work, so I shouldn't try to write a demo here. – BruceET Jan 06 '21 at 09:47
  • Oh, ok! Thanks! I didn't see the link. I will update my question to show my current result with the BINOMDIST function of Excel. Not sure if it is correct, but results seem more reliable! – Zaur Jan 06 '21 at 09:53