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I am trying to find a formula that I can use to find out what my consumption will be based on what the temperature might be, based on the comparison of what the consumption/temperature has been in the previous years. How else would I know if I made an energy efficiency improvement has worked?

I can't use energy consumption alone as the savings could have been a product of a milder winter. Which is why it needs to be normalized in comparison to the average temperature for that month.

So, if we made an improvement to the thermal efficiency of the roof and would have previously consumed 300mw of power in the month of December; but instead are consuming only 200mw. How do I mathematically prove that it was due to the efficiency of the new roof and not a milder winter.

Where would I find resources to help me with these types of calculations and formulas?

*note: I understand formulas written in Excel type format better than the customary graphical layout.

Example Historical data is as follows:
Year/Avg Temp for Month/Electrical consumption
2014,12c,300mw
2015,-8c,450mw
2016,-4c,400mw

Frank Barcenas
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  • Would you please post a link to the historical data? – James Phillips Feb 20 '19 at 19:36
  • @JamesPhillips Here is an example of what I'm talking about. Based on the historical information, what can I expect to consume at -10c for example. – Frank Barcenas Feb 21 '19 at 20:49
  • With only three data points, I would recommend using Excel LINEST to fit a straight line to the data. If you had more data points it might be possible to find a different function, but if the data is noisy or highly variable a straight line may be your best option - a scatterplot of the data can be a useful guide. My straight line fit gives a value of about 454.8 for -10c. – James Phillips Feb 21 '19 at 21:18

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