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I have 183 percentages based on the accuracy of a price prediction. (If I predict something will sell at 100, and it sells at 100, then I have sold at 100% of the prediction.) 16 times, the percentage was < 85%. I would like to know how to determine the probability of 100% of the percentages from another similar population would be < 85%. In other words, what is the likelihood that the next group of assets I buy (chosen from the same population) would ALL be under 85% actual price / target price?

whuber
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Jeff
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1 Answers1

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I believe this is:

$$ \bigg(\frac{16}{183}\bigg)^n , $$

where $n$ is size of new group.

tea_pea
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  • This does not provide an answer to the question. To critique or request clarification from an author, leave a comment below their post. - From Review – kjetil b halvorsen Mar 26 '18 at 09:44
  • I'm unsure why this is not an acceptable answer? The question is "what is the likelihood that the next group of assets I buy would ALL be under 85% actual price / target price?" Happy to delete if I misunderstood something... – tea_pea Mar 26 '18 at 12:40
  • I think he means 85% of the predicted value, not 85% probability. For an answer we would needv to know the distribution of prices, but we dont. So if you now agree in this, you could delete. – kjetil b halvorsen Mar 26 '18 at 12:56
  • It's a confusingly worded question, but after a second read I stand by my answer: 16 of the 183 samples fell below the 85% threshold. Assuming future groups are taken from the same population, each item has a 16/183 chance of being <85%. so then just needs to be raised to the power of the size of the new group. – tea_pea Mar 26 '18 at 13:26