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My data is monthly CPI(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS). Here is the original plot: enter image description here

There is an exponential trend here, but variance isn't necessarily increasing with the trend. I tried a log transform, and here's what I got: enter image description here

The first 1/3 of the plot's variance increased, but the exponential trend is gone; however, neither the original plot nor the log transformed plot are normal. I've only learned log and Box-Cox transforms, so they're the only ones that I can use. Should I be transforming my data here? This data is the only variable that I'm using in my forecast.

  • You probably shouldn't do anything until your goals are clear? What are you trying to do with the series? 2. There's no point in considering normality when the mean is changing; you have different distributions at each time point.
  • – Glen_b Nov 25 '17 at 22:46
  • Sorry for not being clear. I'm trying to forecast using this series.
  • – mistersunnyd Nov 25 '17 at 22:46
  • transformations are based upon the relationship between a model's errors and the expected value ...see https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/18844/when-and-why-should-you-take-the-log-of-a-distribution-of-numbers for more – IrishStat Nov 25 '17 at 22:38
  • Thank you for answering, so are you saying that I should first find a model with the raw data, then look at the residuals, and then transform? Also, in your link, the answer stated that logging a non-linear model to make it linear would be justified (true for me), but it also stated that logging is only justified when variance increases with mean(not true for me). I'm a bit confused. – mistersunnyd Nov 25 '17 at 22:46
  • You should edit your question to include such information. Often with CPI people would look at modelling differences of the logs, though for some CPI sub series there may also be seasonality. Are you interested in forecasting only from the past history of this variable or are you planning to use other variables to help forecast it? – Glen_b Nov 25 '17 at 23:59
  • I am only using this variable to forecast. – mistersunnyd Nov 26 '17 at 00:18
  • Again you should edit your question to include that information. – Glen_b Nov 26 '17 at 00:39