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I have two variables which may have a nonlinear relationship, according to the descriptive statistics.

The independent variable has a positive and significant coefficient in the OLS regression. When a square term is included in the model this becomes negative and insignificant while the square term becomes positive and significant.

Can I argue that these variables have a nonlinear relationship?

Nick Cox
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1 Answers1

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You need to be careful with the way you phrase this question. And, in general it would be helpful to see the output of the tables you are describing.

If I understand you correctly, you are saying that you fit models of the form

Model A: $\quad y = b_0 + b_1 x + e$

Model B: $\quad y = b_0 + b_1 x + b_2 x^2 + e$

where $y$ is the dependent (response) variable, $x$ is the independent (explanatory) variable and $e$ is the error term (residuals unexplained by the model) and the $b_i$ ($i \in \{0,1,2\}$) are coefficients.

Both A and B are linear models because the coefficients appear as additive terms. From what you say, under Model A, the $b_1$ term is significant and positive. Under Model B the $b_2$ term is significant but not $b_1$.

To preserve marginality the $b_1$ term must be retained in Model B when $b_2$ is significant, even if $b_1$ itself reports as non-significant. You can think of this informally as: you can't have $x^2$ unless you already have $x$. That result is telling you that inclusion of the $x^2$ term provides a better fit to the data than the model without the $x^2$ term. This indicates that curvature is a feature of the relationship between $x$ and $y$. In that sense the relationship is non-linear. But the fitted model is still a linear regression model, albeit one which allows a degree of curvature to be accommodated via a polynomial term.

Nick Cox
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goangit
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    Good points. In addition, the situation should be much clearer if you plot the data and the fitted line (Model A above) and quadratic (Model B). You should do this, regardless. Note that $x$ and $x^2$ are hardly independent of each other (indeed, they are inevitably correlated in most situations) so $x$ and $x^2$ may be fighting each other for market share, especially if the relationship is only slightly curved. – Nick Cox Nov 28 '14 at 12:55
  • @NickCox Thanks for the edits. I had been thinking about the "competition for significance" between these terms while writing but failed in the moment to find the right phrasing. Also, I hadn't realised that TeX was an option, good to know. I presume it's a limited subset. Do you know offhand where I can look to see what syntax is supported? – goangit Nov 28 '14 at 13:15
  • I just use TeX I know and see if it's accepted. I've seen this reference http://math.stackexchange.com/help/notation but I've never followed it up. – Nick Cox Nov 28 '14 at 13:19
  • (+1) Welcome to our site, goangit! – whuber Nov 28 '14 at 14:11
  • Thanks @whuber, it's a pleasure to be here. Still fumbling my way around :-) – goangit Nov 30 '14 at 08:27