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Climate models seem to pretty useful tools for predicting future climate. Considering constant refinement of the models and Moore's law, it is conceivable that today's climate models are far more accurate than the ones developed a decade or two ago.

However, it would be interesting to how accurate 20th century climate models actually were.

To what degree of accuracy did 20th century climate models predict the temperatures of today?

If they were inaccurate, to what degree were they off the mark?

Vikram
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  • I'm not able to find any other questions (or any other resources on the internet, based on some quick Googling) that specifically refers to models that were developed in the 20th century. That's why I'm unable to find a source @Christian, and so this question may be still valid without having to post a source, which some answerers may have more knowledge of.

    As for what "accuracy" means, I think it can be defined by some kind of numerical parameter such as confidence level or statistical significance in predicting average surface temperature or ocean temperature.

     – Vikram Jan 04 '17 at 07:01
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    @Vikram Thanks for editing. According to your own research, apparently no one but your friend seems to believe this claim. Unless the claim has some significance for a number of people, it's off topic here. I'll give a look as wells to see if I can find some evidence of that. It's a good question, worth answering, if notable. – Sklivvz Jan 04 '17 at 12:27
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    There is only one meaning to "accurately predict": whether the actual measured temperatures and numbers are within the margins of errors specified in the models or not. That's why in science measurements and predictions are never pure numbers, and should always have an associated uncertainty. – Sklivvz Jan 04 '17 at 12:29
  • this page maintains a big list of "failed" climate model predictions, but I'm not sure it establishes notability – Sklivvz Jan 04 '17 at 12:37
  • @Sklivvz there was an Economist article that showed empirical observations penetrating the models' predictive margin floors. http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions –  Jan 04 '17 at 14:20
  • @KDog The article does not seem to refer to the models made in the 80's and 90's. – Sklivvz Jan 04 '17 at 16:07
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    @Sklivvz Under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) established the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) as a standard for studying the output of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). CMIP provides a infrastructure of climate model diagnosis, , intercomparison, and data This framework enables a community of scientists to analyze GCMs. Virtually the entire international climate modeling community has participated in this project since its inception in 1995. http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/guide_to_cmip5.html –  Jan 04 '17 at 16:35
  • @Sklivvz That is a list of quotes and public statements rather than a list of actual models. – Vikram Jan 04 '17 at 17:26
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    I think this question deserves reopening. I have edited the body of the question to be as unbiased as possible. Please consider. – Vikram Feb 08 '17 at 10:43
  • @Vikram Lack of bias is not the key criterion here, but notability. We're not here to answer questions that we are interested in, but to address claims that people have made. The new wording is an interesting question for an appropriate science forum, but doesn't establish a notable claim for us to be skeptical of. – IMSoP Feb 08 '17 at 14:02
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    I think I would have marked this as a duplicate of this, which in turn is a duplicate of this. – Oddthinking Feb 08 '17 at 14:42

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