Why did Egypt bring tanks to Rafah?

Question

According to Reuters:

CAIRO, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Egypt has sent about 40 tanks and armoured personnel carriers to northeastern Sinai within the past two weeks as part of a series of measures to bolster security on its border with Gaza, two Egyptian security sources said.

The deployment took place ahead of the expansion of Israeli military operations around Gaza's southern city of Rafah, where much of its population has sought safety, sharpening Egyptian fears that Palestinians could be forced en masse out of the enclave.

Egypt's main concern in Rafah, it seems, is the possible influx of Gazan refugees into Egypt, caused by the likely Israeli offensive in the Gazan side of Rafah. While as a sovereign country Egypt has the right to oppose such an eventuality, and be suspicious of Israel's intentions, it is unclear what purpose the tanks could serve. Are they intended to shoot on civilians? Or does Egypt have reasons to expect Hamas extending its military activities on Egyptian soil? Or do they fear IDF violating the border?

Related: has Hamas or other Palestinian groups voiced claims on the Egyptian side of Rafah (divided in two by the Israeli-Egyptian border, although this pretty much follows in the area pre-WW1 British-Ottoman agreement)?

According to Al-Jazeera:

Egypt has reportedly moved 40 tanks and armoured personnel carriers to the Gaza border to halt any potential spillover from an Israeli land assault.

Military Africa provides more details on the Egypt armored deployment near Rafah, but does not clarify the intentions.

Related:
Rafah: Are Egypt and Israel on the Brink of War?
Egypt tells Hamas it has two weeks to reach hostage deal before IDF moves into Rafah – WSJ (citing WSJ Invasion of Gaza Border City Looms as Biden Calls Israel’s Offensive ‘Over the Top’)

Answer 1

Egypt Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly told (Daily Express USA) leaders in Sinai:

We are prepared to sacrifice millions of lives to ensure that no one encroaches upon our territory.

Egyptian fears that Palestinians could attempt to flee the offensive by attempting to rush the Egyptian border (The Times of Israel, TASS).

So they intend to shoot on civilians attempting to cross the border, while seeing the tanks the civilians probably will not be doing.

But they also take some care. Egypt is preparing an area at the Gaza border which could accommodate Palestinians in case an Israeli offensive into Rafah prompts an exodus (The Guardian).

Answer 2

Egypt seems to send mixed messages - on the one hand threatening to suspend the Egypt-Israeli peace treaty, while in the same time setting ultimatums to Hamas, essentially threatening to give Israel free hand on the Gazan side of Rafah.

The New Arab reports (but citing the Israeli sources) that Egypt would not object to Israel's assault on Gaza's Rafah, and that Egypt's main concern is indeed the influx of refugees and the potential resurgence of Islamic terror groups in Sinai:

However, other Israeli media sources, as well as The New York Times, reported that Israeli officials said Cairo had informed Tel Aviv that it fears any influx of Palestinians could lead to a resurgence of Islamist "militancy". This could indicate that Egypt will give tacit acceptance to any assault that doesn't lead to Gazans being displaced towards the country.

Specifically regarding the Egyptian threats to suspend the peace agrement:

On Saturday, it was reported that Egypt had said that Israeli military activity near Rafah and the de-militarised Philadelphi corridor could lead to Cairo re-thinking the 1979 Camp David peace agreement between the two countries.

However, according to Israeli Army Radio, Egypt has been keen to emphasise to Israel that such reports are not true and that there is no threat to the now 45-year-long agreement.

CNN confirms that the Egypt-Israel peace treaty is not at risk:

Western media outlets, including the Associated Press and The New York Times, have reported that Egypt has threatened to void the peace treaty if Israeli troops invaded Rafah. Egypt’s foreign minister dismissed those reports, but said in a news conference Monday that Cairo would adhere to the treaty “as long as it remains reciprocal,” the state-run Ahram newspaper reported.

The tanks and other forces are supposedly to be used against possible influx of Palestinians across the border:

For Egypt, the prospect of millions of Palestinians pouring into the country brings memories of the 2008 border crisis, when hundreds of Gazans stormed into Egypt after the border wall was blown out and torn down. The Palestinians had been running out of fuel, food and other supplies after Israel closed Gaza’s border crossings.

The concentration of forces by Egypt technically violates the peace treaty, but is likely done in coordination with Israel:

The security buildup on the Egyptian side is technically not in line with both countries’ security agreements, but it is likely taking place with Israel’s blessing, Gad said.

“It seems that this is a step approved by Israel as a way to calm Egyptian fears,” Gad said. “Egypt would not deploy (more forces) without Israel’s approval.”

Gad said an Israeli ground campaign in Rafah itself wouldn’t constitute a breach of the treaty, but an operation in the Philadelphi Corridor would.

Air defense systems
Asian media outlets tend to see the Egyptian moves as directed more towards possible military confrontation with Israel than as directed against refugees. Defense Security Asia reports that the tanks are not the most surprising development:

The move to deploy the S-75 Dvina (NATO reporting SA-2 Guideline) air defense systems to the border with Gaza has surprised many, as Egypt has never done so before, except during its wars with Israel, decades ago.

The move to deploy air defense systems to the border with Gaza has surprised many, as Egypt has never done so before, except during its wars with Israel, decades ago.

However, I couldn't cross-check this information.

Heavily fortified border
It is worth noting that the Egypt-Gaza border is already heavily fortified:

Currently, there are three barriers along the Egypt-Gaza border. The most recent of these — a concrete wall about six meters high — was erected late last year after work was carried out on one of the two walls that were already in place, according to the Sinai Foundation. Strips of earth were also dug about 200 meters from the fence. Over the past decade, as part of a broad anti-terrorism campaign in northern Sinai and the tight blockade of Palestinian territory, the Egyptian army has erected another iron and steel fence and another concrete wall, which is six meters high and dug six meters deep underground. Behind this, Cairo has established a three-mile restricted zone into which only military, police, and border guard forces are allowed to enter.

"Buffer zone" at Gaza border
The Sinai Foundation for Human Rights reports that Egypt is constructing a "buffer zone" adjacent to the Egypt-Gaza boundary:

Watan-The “Sinai Foundation for Human Rights” stated today, Wednesday, that it has obtained information from a relevant source indicating that the Egyptian authorities have begun building a secure buffer zone surrounded by walls in eastern Sinai to accommodate Palestinians from Gaza in the event of a mass displacement of the sector’s residents, suggesting that there are undisclosed preparations and that the resettlement plan is being implemented.

[...]

The human rights foundation quoted two local contractors as saying that construction work undertaken by local companies, commissioned by the “Sons of Sinai” construction company owned by businessman close to the authorities, Ibrahim Al-Arajani, aims to establish a walled area with a height of 7 meters.

This suggests that Israel is likely to cooperate with Israel. The timeline for construction (10 days) seems to correlate with the two-weeks deadline that Egypt has given to Hamas to reach an agreement with Israel:

Egypt warned Hamas that it must reach a hostage-for-ceasefire deal with Israel within 2 weeks, or Israel will move into Rafah, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Egypt challenges at Gaza border
The situation in Gaza poses Egypt with a set of challenges, sometimes pushing it in opposite directions:

• Preserving its peace with Israel, which is strategically and economically important for Egypt
• Being seen as a protector of Palestinian people - a must for an Arab-majority and Muslim-majority country
• Avoiding a refugee crisis - difficult to handle financially and likely to be a long-term one (like the refugee camps in Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan - note that in Lebanon and Jordan these eventually led to civil wars, which is relevant in view of the following points)
• Avoiding Islamist Muslim Brotherhood - the main opponent of the current regime - to be reinforced by Hamas (which is historically an offshoot of the Brotherhood)
• Avoiding revival of the Islamist Sinai insurgency
• Preserving order in Sinai - a sparsely populated region, populated mostly by Bedouin tribes that largely ignore the Egyptian government.

(See for more background: No Exit: Egypt’s Dilemma on Gaza )

Answer 3

What purpose did these tanks have?

Israel did fire across the border by accident.

There's no way to answer your question with the precision you ask. They are there both as a show and "just in case".

We can get a hint though from the Egyptian media what some of the "just in case" might be, and why deployment was (at least announced) now rather than before:

Security sources announced that Egypt has dispatched up to 40 tanks and armored personnel carriers to North Sinai during the past two weeks in order to enhance security on the border with Gaza. [...]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked the army and the Ministry of Defense to submit a plan to evacuate civilians from the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.

Netanyahu’s request comes amid Western and Egyptian warnings about the danger of Israel carrying out large-scale operations in Rafah, which is sheltering hundreds of thousands of people displaced from their homes as a result of the war on the Strip.

And if you think Israeli media or officials have been anymore transparent on this...

An Israeli official told Reuters that restructuring of security on the border, where he said a small number of tunnels remained, was under regular discussion by the two countries.

Israel would try to organize for the movement of displaced Palestinians northwards within Gaza ahead of any military operation there, the official said.

Egyptian security sources have played down any discussions and said they are prioritizing efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza. The state information service called accusations of smuggling “lies” intended to give cover to Israel’s objective of occupying the border buffer zone, known as the Philadelphi Corridor.

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BTW, it's not the first such news (although the reported numbers may be greater now). ToI also reported on Oct 31

Egypt has stationed tanks and armored vehicles near the Rafah border crossing into Gaza.

Pictures show dozens of the vehicles stationed near the border.

Only 4 vehicles (1 tank & 3 IFV/APCs) are visible in the accompanying photo though. But photos in the Pakistani Dawn article of the same time show more (at least 3 tanks and 10 APCs).

The fact that they're not dispersed but more or less in "parade formation" indicates that they were there mainly to show the flag, at least then.

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Anyhow, since I got multiple comments on this: the first (black and white) photo is one of the confrontations while the Berlin wall was being built (those didn't all involve tanks though).

And while Egypt already has something like that in place on their border with Gaza, reports are now that Egypt is building a 2-mile wide "buffer" zone behind it. Its purpose is not totally clear at the moment, but it could eventually contain some Palestinian "human spillover" from Gaza. Whether Egypt is actually planning to use the latter buffer or is building/razing it "just in case" too is subject to much speculation (and little official information) at the moment.

Rumours related to the latter are swirling. While Egypt seems to still be officially denying they are making any such preparations, some Western newspapers like the WSJ report it as a confirmed fact that Egypt is planning to host/contain up to 100,000 Palestinian refugees in that buffer "in the event of a mass exodus of residents of the Strip", based on the accounts of anonymous Egyptian officials. (Whether those preparations are somehow related to increasingly public Biden-Netanyahu divergence on the final stage of the war in Gaza and its aftermath is also a matter of conjecture at this point.)

Answer 4

Speaking about the tanks specifically, this is form of "gunboat diplomacy". When a state wants to find a diplomatic solution to an issue, but feels that the other involved states might be fractious or disinclined to negotiate, common practice is to make a conspicuous display of military hardware to remind everyone that there are consequences for unruly behavior.

Teddy Roosevelt summed it up in his "talk softly and carry a big stick" ideology. Egypt isn't moving the tanks in lieu of some imminent tank battle. Egypt is moving the tanks the way an irritated man might crack his knuckles and grunt 'ahem' to make sure he has everyone's attention.

Answer 5

To prevent Palestinians from crossing into Egypt. Egyptians will fire into the Palestinian crowd if it attempts to cross the border.

Allowing Palestinian civilians crossing into Egypt would clear the stage for Israeli getting rid of Hamas, which is contrary to the Egyptian interests.

Answer 6

Egypt has 3 major goals in bolstering its Rafah borders:

1. Prevent the genocide of Palestinians by Netanyahu's government.
2. Prevent Israel from capturing the Philadelphia Corridor or the Salah Al-Din Corridor.
3. Prevent Hamas from using Egypt as a sanctuary.

Prevent the genocide of Palestinians by Netanyahu's government.

From the statements of Israeli government representatives, political leaders and leaked documents, it is now very clear that Netanyahu government's primary goal in invading Gaza was the planned Genocide of Palestinians there - the unjustified killing of civilians, the unnecessary bombing of infrastructure and scale of destruction is clearly meant to make the region temporary uninhabitable and forcefully drive the remaining Palestinians away from the region into Egypt and other countries. (Israel has also been carrying out controlled demolitions in Gaza territories suggesting future plans to occupy them.)

Egypt has been categorical that it will not cooperate with Israel on this, nor be forced into it:

Egypt categorically rejects the Israeli policy of forced displacement of the people of Gaza whether within the Strip or across the border into Eygpt's Sinai, the chairperson of the Egyptian State Information Service, Diaa Rashwan, stated. ... In a press briefing, the official reiterated Egypt's rejection of the Israeli policy centered around the forced displacement of Palestinians within the Gaza Strip. Rashwan also rejected attempts to transfer Palestinians to Sinai or pressure them to move there via hostile practices ... _{(Ref. 1)}

As the IDF expands its operations into the areas of Rafah, which is on Egyptian border, Egypt is now especially concerned because more than half of the Gazans have been driven into this area by Israel:

“In recent days, thousands of Palestinians have been fleeing to the south to Rafah, which is already hosting over half of Gaza’s population of some 2.3 million people,” said OCHA spokesperson Jens Laerke. _{(Ref. 2)}

More than half of Gaza’s population is now crammed in Rafah, a town of originally 250,000 people right on Egypt’s doorstep. Their living conditions are abysmal — they lack the basic necessities to survive, stalked by hunger, disease and death. _{(Ref. 3)}

Without a strong military presence at the border, Egypt rightfully fears that IDF could further force many of the desperate Gazans to attempt to flee into Egypt. There are also fears that Israel may even attack its border to facilitate this:

Egyptian official Diaa Rashwan ... stressed that Cairo "will not allow the passage of this plan regardless of the results, and no one can impose a fait accompli by force," indicating that "the Egyptian state has all the tools that enable it to preserve its land and national security." _{(Ref. 1)}

If Israeli forces try to forcibly herd Palestinians into Egypt, it is very likely that Egypt will take limited military actions against the IDF to prevent this. Egypt is also in touch with international organisations and Palestinian factions to ensure that the Palestinians in Gaza are well aware that their borders are closed and will not accept refugees (as it has said many times publicly also).

Note: Genocide isn't just the physical act of killing people, but also an attempt to wipe out the political and cultural identity of a group of people by persecuting and chasing them away from their land.

Egypt (and Israel) knows that Israel cannot kill all the 2.5 million Palestinians in Gaza, and that is why it is trying to make them desperate enough - by creating conditions of poverty, homelessness, starvation, and disease - to migrate. By public statements, diplomatic missions and now militarily reinforcing its borders at Rafah, Egypt has sent an unambiguous message to the international community that it will not unnecessarily accept refugees or support Netanyahu's genocidal plans to force them to leave Gaza. If Netanyahu's government still tries to use the IDF to force the refugees in Rafah to go to Egypt, it will stand out as a strong evidence of Netanyahu's regime to commit genocide against Palestinians.

Obviously Egypt is betting that Netanyahu is not so deranged as to go to war with Egypt, earn the condemnation of the international community and lose the support of it allies.

Thus, by closing its borders and reinforcing it with its military, Egypt has deliberately created hurdles in Israeli government plans to chase away the Palestinians to Egypt. It has also brought more international attention on the IDF operations in Rafah. This has now forced the Netanyahu's government to re-evaluate it political and military plans and consider diplomatic options:

Negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza have resumed in Cairo, Egyptian media say. Senior officials from the US, Israel, Egypt and Qatar are meeting as Israel faces strong international pressure to stop its bombardment of the southern Gaza city of Rafah. _{(Ref. 4)}

Prevent Israel from capturing the Philadelphia Corridor or the Salah Al-Din Corridor.

One of the criticism that Netanyahu's government has constantly faced from the opposition is that his policy of supporting Hamas has also allowed the group access to weapons that Hamas (and other Palestinian groups) apparently amassed. To counter this criticism, Netanyahu has preferred to publicly blame Egyptian authorities for allowing Hamas to "smuggle" weapons into Gaza from the Rafah border. And it has proposed that it wants to regain control over certain border areas that it had relinquished to Egypt in the past.

December 23, 2023: The IDF has allegedly informed Egypt of its intention to occupy the Rafah border area and asked Egyptian soldiers to evacuate the area, Arab media reported. The IDF informed Egypt of its intention to occupy the border area on the "Philadelphi" Rafa route and asked the Egyptian soldiers to clear the border, as reported on Saturday in the Arab media. The report also stated that the IDF emphasized to the Egyptians that from now on, the IDF would not be responsible for the security of Egyptian forces in the area while the IDF is attempting to occupy the border area and emphasized that the military operation in the area will continue whether Egypt agrees or rejects it. _{(Ref. 5)}

Egypt has been blunt that Netanyhu is just lying about this, and it will not allow this. The current bolstering of the border at Rafah is also meant to prevent and dissuade Israel from occupying its border areas, in case Netanyahu becomes more desperate due to his political failures:

Egypt stated, on Monday evening, that “any Israeli move towards occupying the Philadelphia or Salah Al-Din Corridor in the Gaza Strip will lead to a serious threat to Egyptian-Israeli relations”. This came in a statement issued by Diaa Rashwan, head of the State Information Service (SIS) ...

“The recent period witnessed several statements by Israeli officials, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, containing false claims and accusations. ... Israel’s insistence on promoting these lies is an attempt to create legitimacy for its attempt to occupy the Philadelphia Corridor or the Salah Al-Din Corridor, in the Gaza Strip along the border with Egypt, in violation of the security agreements and protocols signed between it and Egypt ... We must firmly emphasise that any Israeli move in this direction will lead to a serious and grave threat to Egyptian-Israeli relations. In addition to being a country that respects its international obligations, Egypt is also capable of defending its interests and sovereignty over its land and borders,” he said.

The Egyptian official stressed that his country’s borders “will not be pawned by a group of extremist Israeli leaders who seek to drag the region into a state of conflict and instability.”

He continued, “This Egyptian red line (not harming the Philadelphia Corridor) is added to the previous red line that Egypt has repeatedly declared, which is the categorical rejection of forcibly or voluntarily displacing our Palestinian brothers to Sinai, which it will not allow Israel to cross.”

Netanyahu previously said Israel must control the Philadelphia border area between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. The Philadelphia Axis, also called the “Salah Al-Din Axis”, is part of a buffer zone under the Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel in 1979. Its width is no more than 100 metres and extends 14.5 kilometres from the Mediterranean Sea to the Karam Salem Crossing. _{(Ref. 6)}

Prevent Hamas from using Egypt as a sanctuary.

The Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood that had once captured power in Egypt. El-Sisi's military coup had removed this group from power in 2013, and since then has ruthlessly suppressed the group. Despite strongly supporting the Palestinian cause, Egypt thus has no interest in providing any sancturay to Hamas. There are fears in the Eyptian regime that as IDF intensifies its operation in Rafah, some Hamas operatives may try to enter Egypt from the Rafah border, and setup base in Sinai, from where it could launch future attacks on Israel. This could not only bolster the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and be a treat to Egypt's internal security, but attacks on Israel from Sinai could also endanger the Eypt - Israel peace treaty.

References:

1. Egypt rejects Israeli plots to forcibly displace Palestinians to Sinai

2. Rafah a ‘pressure cooker of despair’ in Gaza

3. UN relief chief: As crisis enters fifth month, further fighting in Rafah risks claiming more lives and exacerbating humanitarian needs

4. Israel Gaza: Ceasefire talks resume as Rafah under fire

5. IDF asks Egypt to evacuate its forces from Rafah border area - report

6. Egypt: Any Israel move to occupy the Philadelphia Corridor is a ‘threat to relations’