Israeli disposition to a two-state solution

Question

Until watching this interview with Dr. Mearsheimer, I was under the impressions the Israelis were favorable abut the two-state solution as long as they weren't being attacked from the Palestinian territories. He is saying they are not and insist on a one-state "Greater Israel" that would be an apartheid state, because democracy/equality would quickly dilute the Jewish hegemony. Furthermore, he claims that Israelis want to ideally ethnically cleanse it of Arabs, driving them into Egypt and Jordan, which appears similar to the Hamas plan, but from the other side.

I am looking to check if what he is saying is correct.

Are Israeli more interested in one segregated state than in a two-state solution?

The thing is that various entities in Israel may say stuff like that, even if it's not official gov't policy; see e.g. https://politics.stackexchange.com/a/82211/18373 ; https://thehill.com/policy/international/4294715-netanyahu-suspends-minister-who-suggested-dropping-nuclear-bomb-on-gaza/ — the gods from engineering, Nov 06 '23 at 17:35
He's not necessarily wrong about the 2 state solutions current popularity. But polls in that regard have been different at different times. And just because some whackos believe in ethnic cleansing and annexations, which is a separate consideration from a 2 state solution, doesn't mean he should be presenting it as the views of "Israelis" in general. If you are asking about 2 state solutions, ask about it. If you are asking about ethnic cleansing and annexations ask about that instead. Otherwise, it will be very difficult to understand what answers are about. — Italian Philosophers 4 Monica, Nov 06 '23 at 18:08
I think here one really needs to distinguish between "Israelis" and "the Israeli government." Maybe Mearsheimer does, even if the question does not. Does Netanyahu and his coalition largely want to drive Palestinians out of Palestine and into Egypt and Jordan? I have heard a lot of things that make me think that many of them do. However, Netanyahu's approval rating has plummeted and most Israelis give him a low score on his handing of the war. So do most of them support that idea? That is less clear. — Obie 2.0, Nov 06 '23 at 18:42
Who is this Dr. Mearsheimer? A renown expert on the situation? Some random dude? Maybe the question could provide some background information participants of the interview. If for example he was some random guy, I wouldn't be surprised at all. — NoDataDumpNoContribution, Nov 07 '23 at 19:56
@NoDataDumpNoContribution: unfortunately he's rather well known. And I say that because coming up with simplistic theories of IR makes one famous these days. His claims that Israel wants this or that are based on that line of seeing the world, BTW, i.e. states have immutable goals, don't matter who runs them, according to M. — the gods from engineering, Nov 07 '23 at 20:17
Voting not to close - Are Israeli more interested in one segregated state than in a two-state solution? - I think this question can be somewhat factually answered. Israel is a democracy. So we can examine the views of the political parties in Israel during elections on the two-state issue, and how much electoral representation they actually won. Second, we can examine their legislative activity on this front to push their policies on this issue. Third, we can consider the actual policies (foreign and domestic) created and implemented by the government on this issue. — sfxedit, Nov 13 '23 at 17:26
@sfxedit -- thank you, those votes to close seem in bad faith and politically motivated — amphibient, Nov 14 '23 at 18:19

score 14 · Answer 1 · edited Nov 07 '23 at 16:04

14

Question:

Israel disposition to a two-state solution.

Answer:

There have been times when a two-state solution was favored by many Israelis. That support was really dismantled by Prime Minister Netanyahu and Arial Sharon before him who were both outspoken and consistent critics of such efforts.

Israelis have grown more skeptical of a two-state solution

Only 35% of Israelis think “a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully,” according to the survey, which was conducted in March and April, prior to the latest violence in the West Bank. That represents a decline of 9 percentage points since 2017 and 15 points since 2013.

In truth though, a two-state solution has always meant different things for the two sides. There are a number of issues which the majority of Israelis even when a two-state solution was being seriously considered, never really resolved with the Palestinians. The disposition of Jerusalem and continuity of the Palestinian lands in the West Bank are two. A right of return for Palestinians who wish to return to their homes in greater Israel was another. These and other unresolved issues were major stumbling blocks never resolved, even when the two-state solution was being considered.

The thing which make the two-state solution a viable and even preferred option today for some is a reflection of how strongly they oppose the one-state option.

edited Nov 07 '23 at 16:04

Peter Mortensen

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answered Nov 06 '23 at 17:58

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To be fair too, you could graph Israeli terrorism deaths during the highpoints of active 2 state negotiations in the 1995-2005 timeframe and they spiked up quite a bit. Add to that Rabin getting killed by a Jewish extremist: what the majorities might have wanted was not was the extremists wanted and they acted accordingly. – Italian Philosophers 4 Monica Nov 06 '23 at 18:20
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The survey you quote is misleading, it doesn't ask about support for a two state solution but about "a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully,"- one can support a two state solution and still be skeptical about its success – Rsf Nov 07 '23 at 09:54
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"Only 35% of Israelis think “a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully,” does not equals to "Israelis want to ideally ethnically cleanse it of Arabs" – isaace Nov 07 '23 at 16:00
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@ItalianPhilosophers4Monica, That's actually wrong. Rabin died in 1995 and with him the best hope of a two state solution. Ehud Barak resurrected the hope in 1999. 1999 was marked by Israeli Palestinian cooperation's and almost no terrorist activity. Only after the Sept 2000 when Camp David Summit failed did terrorism restart. Barak was voted out of office in early 2001 and any hope for a two state solution was gone. Comprehensive Listing of Terrorism Victims in Israel so 7/1999 - 9/2000 – JMS Nov 08 '23 at 13:41
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The two state solution thus had two phases. Under Rabin which ended due to Israeli Terrorism with Rabin's murder by an Israeli settler who opposed the two state solution. and under Barak 7/1999 - 9/2000, which was marked by almost no terrorism and significant Palestinian and Israel cooperation until the two state solution negotiations at Camp David broke down September 2000. – JMS Nov 08 '23 at 13:50
@Rsf, I don't think that's misleading. – JMS Nov 08 '23 at 13:56
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@isaace, I never said or alluded that Israeli's want to ethnically cleanse "it" of Arabs. But it's certainly being discussed. Another Nakba? Israeli Intel Ministry Proposes Expelling Every Palestinian in Gaza to Egypt – JMS Nov 08 '23 at 14:05
@JMS Don't pretend to know all the details. Nor did my comment go into those details. But Rabin did get killed and the 2nd Intifada did make sure that there was no appetite for Israeli compromise and that hardliners and extremists got an ever bigger role in diplomacy. – Italian Philosophers 4 Monica Nov 08 '23 at 17:05
@isaace If you notice, my comment under the Q was precisely about this issue. That one wouldn't know what an answer was responding to: the 2 states polling numbers? Or the claims of ethnic cleansing? This A only seems to address the first. That's a flaw with the Q as posted, and a good example of the more reasonable reasons users dislike multiple sub-questions in one Q. – Italian Philosophers 4 Monica Nov 08 '23 at 17:09
I'll leave my comment as is, thank you very much. Accepting your logic means that the only times 2 state was ever considered was 1996-1999, because terrorism was fairly high the other years. See bar graph The drop in 2006+ was due to that rather contentious wall whose 2004 ICJ ruling everyone refers to. Now, I do know, and don't dispute, that terrorism deaths went up when talks collapsed, but that's not the same thing as saying things were always rosy the rest of the time. Anyway, why did your user get deleted and reappear? – Italian Philosophers 4 Monica Nov 08 '23 at 17:33
@JMS it might be misleading or not, but the survey doesn't reflects what people want but what they think will happen (or not happen). – Rsf Nov 09 '23 at 10:06
@Rsf, The point is the survey does reflect what people want although it doesn't state it. If you don't think there is any way a neighbor will live next to you peacefully, it reflects on your willingness to make hard sacrifices in an attempt to pursue exactly that. – JMS Nov 09 '23 at 12:12

Jacob3 · Answer 2 · 2023-11-07T19:49:26.827

Israel, as a democratic country, allows every citizen to have and express their own views. So any question like this, actually asks for a variety of answers.

The 2 most common views in Israel are either a full two-state plan or a two-state plan in which Israel retains the military control over the whole area, but allows the Palestinians to govern all their affairs other than military. Since the Hamas takeover of Gaza, fewer Israelis remain believing in the regular 2-state plan, but rather in the 2nd option. Deviating from preferability towards possibility.

There are also many people who don't think there is a natural solution to the conflict, not one state and not two states.

No party that made it into the current parliament, has the official political goal of expelling all Arabs from the river to the sea.

See Netanyahu explaining his view in his interview on the Lex Fridman podcast. (40:00-50:00); https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpC7SVDXimg

score 6 · Answer 3 · answered Nov 07 '23 at 10:11

A good starting point to answer this is the Two State Index by the Geneva Initiative. It shows a low probability to a two state solution and the reasons for it, but you will not find the one state solution mentioned there as a problem.

Linked from there you will find this article from 2022 that can give more background, and again it does mention a small and slow "sliding towards a one state solution" but also that it is still a minority and explains why such a solution is not really feasible.

score 4 · Answer 4 · answered Nov 07 '23 at 18:20

Dr. Mearsheimer [claims] that [the Israelis are not favorable towards] the two-state solution ... and insist on a one-state "Greater Israel" that would be an apartheid state, because democracy/equality would quickly dilute the Jewish hegemony. Furthermore, he claims that Israelis want to ideally ethnically cleanse it of Arabs, driving them into Egypt and Jordan, which appears similar to the Hamas plan, but from the other side.

John Mearsheimer is incorrect. A sizable fraction of both Israelis and Palestinians do support a two-state solution, although in both cases they represent a minority. Israelis do not support ethnic cleansing.

References:

Only 35% of Israelis think “a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully,” according to the survey, which was conducted in March and April, prior to the latest violence in the West Bank. That represents a decline of 9 percentage points since 2017 and 15 points since 2013.

Two-state solution? Israelis have grown more skeptical | Pew Research Center

Hamas’ unprecedented attack against Israel and the outbreak of war has refocused international attention on the long-running Arab-Israeli conflict. In the months and weeks leading up to the Oct. 7 attack, about one in four Palestinians (24%) living in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem said they supported a two-state solution to the conflict, with an independent Palestinian state existing alongside Israel.

Support for a two-state solution among Palestinians has more than halved since 2012, when nearly six in 10 (59%) endorsed the idea.

Palestinians Lack Faith in Biden, Two-State Solution | Gallup

So, how is he incorrect? Simple majorities on both sides [presently] don't want a two-state solution,, according to the polling you've shown. And you don't discuss his eviction sub-thesis with data. You just state somewhat vaguely "Israelis do not support ethnic cleansing". That's probably true wrt to Israeli Arabs. Do you have data wrt non-citizen Palestinians. — the gods from engineering, Nov 07 '23 at 20:27
Citing pre-October 7th polls is very irrelevant. The overwhelming majority of Israelis post 7/10 are against a two-state solution. — Stop Gaza Genocide, Jan 21 '24 at 00:58

Israeli disposition to a two-state solution

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