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The Economist Intelligence Unit reported in March that some 33% of the world's population live in countries that support Russia in their war with Ukraine, and another 30% live in countries that are neutral on the subject. A report from Cambridge university surveyed people in 137 countries and found that of the 6.3bn people who live in the 'illiberal sphere', 66% of them 'feel positively towards Russia'.

On an individual level, what motivates ordinary citizens, particularly those in the global south, to support Russia's invasion?

One reason could be that the sanctions that followed the invasion affected global food prices. But that's a slightly different thing than supporting the principle of invading Ukraine in the first place.

Another is rejection of a world view promoted by former colonial powers. But again, that doesn't in itself provide any justification for the initial invasion.

I realise there is bias in the Western media, and during the run-up to the Iraq war (big country invades small one for strategic reasons, claiming they are an intolerable threat) the view of most of us in the West was slightly different.

But are there any valid reasons to support Russia's invasion?

EDIT: I added a second source which surveyed people's opinions of Russia, not just the alignment of their governments. Note that only a subset of those polled were polled after the Ukraine invasion.

EDIT: I understand Russia's sound strategic reasons to dominate Ukraine. And I get that some people dislike the West and root for Russia (and anyone else who stands up to them). But at the moment of invasion, when one sovereign nation invades a smaller one, ostensibly unprovoked (and I don't count anti-Russian language laws, foolish though they may have been, as justifying an invasion), how can an individual who has reasonably good access to news (i.e., doesn't live in, e.g., China) think to himself "yes, Russia was right to invade, I hope they win"?

whoisit
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mdarwin
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    Its worth recognising the wording of some of these statistics "found that of the 6.3bn people who live in the 'illiberal sphere', 66% of them 'feel positively towards Russia'." - the survey wasn't carried out by 6.3bn people - its a generalisation based on those who filled in the survey - I'd add some pretty big error bars on this (both ways) to account for some selection bias and generalisation from a few thousand surveys to billions of people. I'm sure the general sentiment is correct, however, and support for Russia is common. – Lio Elbammalf Sep 12 '23 at 09:44
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    I would question any report that calls 66% of the world's population part of the "illiberal sphere". That shows quite a bias. They might as well say, "Axis of Evil" except its been used. – Tony Ennis Sep 12 '23 at 20:17
  • Note that while the question concerns support for the war by the ordinary populace, its quotations do not. One quotation mentions the official policy of countries, while the other speaks of popular opinion of Russia generally and not any war at all. – Ben Voigt Sep 14 '23 at 18:45
  • There is no "Russia's sound strategic reasons". Poutine just tried to prolong his life by repeating 2014 attack on Ukraine to stabilize his position for few years more. But... a small victorious campaign (see almost exactly same 2008 attack on Georgia) turned out to be exhausting war for 2+ years. – Free Consulting Mar 24 '24 at 09:43
  • @TonyEnnis: Agreed, but I would actually question the partition. It's somewhat like a society with slavery, which calls the slave stockades of a town the "fettered sphere" and the slave owners' part of town the "sphere of freedom". – einpoklum Mar 24 '24 at 22:54

14 Answers14

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TLDR: For real and imagined reasons, the West is less popular than it thinks it is and this is war is framed, by Russia, as them standing up to the West.

Russia has presented plenty of arguments for why its special military operation was legitimate:

  • NATO expansion to a neighboring country Russia considers its own by right. Russia is trying to return to the previous peaceful situation before Ukraine started to remove itself from Russian influence. Russia deserves respect from smaller countries.

  • "Nazis". Because of course Zelensky, who is of Jewish origin, is also a Nazi.

  • "Western domination of world affairs needs to come to an end."

  • "Hey, the West did this in Libya."

  • "It’s a battle between good and evil, in which Russia is the last powerful guardian of the good, seeking to maintain God’s Holy Laws while the decadent rest are just trying to hold a gay pride parade in Kyiv."

Now, the world is a big and diverse place. People have different worldviews, access to different source of news and different emotional affinities to different countries. Some people will just give more credence to Russia's arguments than to Western ones.

Here's a February 2023 poll, conducted in a number of countries, asking people about their opinions. Mostly covers geopolitics: trust/mistrust of Western motives and influence on world affairs, as well as democratic credentials.

In many places, Russia is still remembered as being supportive against past imperialism. Africa, a big concern in the linked article's map certainly has been exposed to Western colonialism more so than Russia's. Other countries include China (a competitor to the West) and India (which has had friendly relations with Russia in the past). You can top it off with a number of countries in South America with harder left governments.

Many people just struggle to survive and couldn't care one whit about a far off war involving Europeans. Global warming is also stressing some poor countries and quite a few rich Western basically ignore it if it brings any inconveniences to themselves.

When Covid came about, Russia donated - some - Sputnik vaccines (ditto China), the West initially kept a lot to themselves. Granted the efficacy of both Russia and China's meds might have been dubious, but...

Take something as clear and scientifically objective as Covid itself. Even in Western countries with populations having full access to unrestricted information, opinions and sentiment were all over the map. Why exactly do you expect the Russia-Ukraine war to be any different?

Heck, you even have a tribe of Americans, led by Tucker Carlson et al. who think Russia's actions are understandable.

To go back on the subject of poverty. Many people in poor countries feel rich countries (the West) aren't doing all that much. In a way, the fact that Russia hardly donates anything probably means that they are not blamed for insufficient overall aid.

This is basically a "why don't people think like I do" question, scaled up to a country level. There are numerous reasons why that would be the case, the only real surprise would be if everybody agreed.

That said, since the facts in themselves - Russian aggression against a neighbor whose territorial integrity it had guaranteed - are pretty clear cut, it might be the time for Western governments to think about how their PR towards the global South needs a bit of tuning. In the event of a potential future struggle for world influence between the West and China, best to have learned how better to communicate with the rest of the world.


any valid reasons to support Russia's invasion?

No. Whatever misbehavior the West can be accused of hardly excuses Russia's aggression in Ukraine. And it most certainly does not excuse Russia from its large scale, systemic, violations of the laws of war regarding civilians and POWs. I mostly answered the title - "Why do some people support Russia's war in Ukraine?".


p.s. about the Zelensky is really a fascist argument in comments, it hardly holds much water (the Nazi version of this argument is just laughable). Before the war started, Zelensky, primarily a Russian speaker, was considered by many as weak and too accommodating to Russia. Remember, he was better, to Russia, than the primary alternative in 2019, Poroshenko. Zelensky aside, dismissing this argument is not to whitewash Bandera and his modern followers - he wasn't "just" a nationalist. But you don't invade a country just because it has fascists and some fascist politicians - we'd all be at each others' throats, all the time.

p.p.s For a light dip into the sentiments of some Indians, a sizable slice of the Russophiles the question asks about, have a look at the Hindustan's YouTube channel. It's got 5.95M subscribers. Look at the comments. It's not all astroturfers or paid trolls - why would would anyone bother investing effort into preaching to this choir???

p.p.p.s Going to look up some more information on this, but Ukraine, remember a rather poor country itself, had only limited embassy coverage in Africa and other global South countries. Russia did quite the opposite. Not engaging with countries, while it saves much-needed cash, comes at a risk. While Ukraine might have had limited cash, disengagement was a hallmark of Trump's foreign policy.

US foreign policy really at times does seem to be designed to unnecessarily provoke Russia. For example, current military exercises with Armenia. Minor, sure. Possibly principled to assist freedom and development, motherhood and baklava? Maybe. Appropriate, in realpolitik terms, at a moment when it is desirable to have the Russian bear slink back home, by having it count the cost/benefit of getting its people killed for no good reasons other than its unjustified paranoia and hubris? By no means.


I wonder if there isn't also a "dirty laundry" effect. Consider this: Abu Ghraib, Iraq War, CIA-backed death squads in Central America... These are all parts of very public discussions, carried out in English, by people living in the perpetrator country. Anyone interested in world affairs can have a look to see what crimes were carried out, as recognized by Americans themselves. That's the nature of free speech in democracies, criticizing Western war crimes. Ask Chomsky (who has parlayed his dislike of the US into a lucrative career criticizing it, in the US).

Contrast that with countries that have limited free speech and suppress criticism of war crimes by their armed forces. To an outsider, they will look better. How much public soul-searching did Russia engage in when they razed Grozny in 1994 and 1999? Sure, they talked, a lot, about Russian military losses. What about Chechnyen (Russian citizens) civilians ones? Were Russians as assiduous in questioning their armed forces behavior in Syria as Westerners were critical of civilian casualties in Mosul, kicking out ISIS? We talk about Afghan civilian losses from 2001-2021 (NATO): 50k? Let's double that to 100k. Estimates for Afghan civilian deaths 1980 - 1989 (USSR) run from 500k to 2m. Is that the occasion for a whole lot of Russian soul-searching? Is Bucha?

Not that I am aware of, and if they were, the discussion was carried out mostly Russian, a language spoken by not that many people outside Russia.

This is not to say the West can't be massively self-righteous most of the time. That is already a core part of this answer. It is just that our misdeeds are largely part of our public record while Russia's is less easily accessible. Especially now, with their new censorship laws.

Italian Philosophers 4 Monica
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  • What do you mean "led by" Carlson? People were talking about how Russia has some justification well before he started speaking on it. As far as fascism goes, most people don't even actually know how to define fascism, so when the term is used, it's almost always for emotional impact, not because the definition fits. Good answer – Liam Clink Mar 02 '24 at 20:53
  • Eww, Chomsky... Talking about atrocities, I specially love his endorsements of Mao and Pol Pot regimes. – Free Consulting Mar 24 '24 at 09:15
  • @FreeConsulting I mentioned Chomsky to contrast his success and earnings in the US with the fates that others - cough, Navalny, cough, might encounter when they try to do the same in Russia (or China). BTW, I would love if you could post a link to his endorsing Pol Pot. I found Manufacturing Consent a good book but I very much recall that - when he asks if others might expect it to criticize the USSR's own propaganda as well, he basically says: well, they're not great, but we are not talking about them here and let's get back to the baaaad baaad USA. – Italian Philosophers 4 Monica Mar 25 '24 at 01:12
  • That comparison... Navalny was hero while Chomsky is just typical judeocommunist who loves everything red while sitting in comfy America. – Free Consulting Mar 25 '24 at 02:48
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    The comparison is simply based on the observation that both men criticized the power structures in their country. One gets thrown in jail on dubious charges, near-assassinated with a state-level nerve poison and ends up dying under rather suspicious circumstances, at a convenient time. The other? Feted intellectual with a comfortable life on the speaking circuit. Doesn't say say anything about whether or not they were right in criticism, merely noting how much safer it is to criticize the US internally than it is to do the same in RU and how the dirty laundry is not equally visible in both – Italian Philosophers 4 Monica Mar 25 '24 at 03:13
  • His writings follow a consistent pattern: Chomsky excels at illuminating crimes... but only the crimes of the right villains. Yes, that's pretty much my take on the guy. Occasionally clever (but remember that Manufacturing Consent has 2 authors) but biased as heck. – Italian Philosophers 4 Monica Mar 25 '24 at 03:19
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The source you refer to only considers the national positions of the countries, not citizens opinions. Most of the citizens of the global south have their own problems to deal with, and do not have the time or capacity to think about how one random country is attacking another.

The national positions in most cases reflect the natural position of the respective country on the US-Russia spectrum. That is, most countries have not suddenly started supporting USA because Russia invaded Ukraine. China is closer to Russia than US; Europe is closer to the US than Russia (except Belarus and Turkey), etc.

There are lots of conflicts happening in the world. Countries far away from the Ukraine war care about it just as much as they care about the coup in Niger.

whoisit
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    A decent answer, but while one can concede Russia (around position number 50 out of slightly 200 in terms of GDP per capita) as rich, though "middle-income" might be closer, the same is not really true of Ukraine (around position 100). It's more one rich country attacking an average country. But the distance argument is spot-on, as is the "people are not their government" argument. Most people in the world have no idea what the background of the war in Ukraine is, and are just going off of what they hear politicians say, to the extent that they care. And yes, that includes most opposition. – Obie 2.0 Sep 12 '23 at 04:49
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    @Obie2.0 Fair point, I didn't know that Ukraine wasn't rich. – whoisit Sep 12 '23 at 06:07
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    I understand all your points but you haven't answered the question. Assuming a country has a more positive view of Russia, then Russia invade a sovereign nation unprovoked (AFAIK), why would people in that country back Russia? By contrast, when US and UK invaded Iraq, they lost a lot of popularity worldwide. – mdarwin Sep 12 '23 at 12:10
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    @mdarwin The US, UK were hardly ever popular in the global south to lose popularity. The criticism was mostly from European people. Citizens in the global south were not concerned then, and are not concerned now about what's happening elsewhere. – whoisit Sep 12 '23 at 18:38
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    This seems like a very reasonable answer but it seems to be somewhat contradicted by the second source link OP posted. Also people in general can have strong opinions about issues that do not directly affect them, and that they themselves cannot affect. – Ivana Sep 13 '23 at 12:01
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    Europe and the US has a far more vicious history towards the global south, with 100 or so coup d'etats, 30 trillion or so trade displaced, millions of slaves, many wars... why would they rationalize short term like the USSR or US propaganda wants them to? They just side with the historical least resented nation. – bandybabboon Sep 13 '23 at 19:10
  • @whoisit, I don't think that is actually the case, at least not generally. I interact on a daily basis with people from the "global south," and many of them have clear opinions about the war. In fact, the number of people who have a somewhat-to-quite positive opinion of Russia is unequivocally higher than in the West. As for the reasons, I'd say the most significant one is anti-Americanism or anti-Occidentalism. – m e Sep 14 '23 at 14:28
  • @bandybabboon - Right, regardless of the morality of the actual conflict, they will side with the nation that has historically interfered the least in their affairs and done the least harm to them. Probably some country that used to be part of the Soviet Union, with its at least nominally anti-colonialist stance, and since then has had too little economic power to interfere in their affairs with mercenaries and coups and the like, but that also has good trade with them for essentials like grain. So, uh...Ukraine, then? – Obie 2.0 Sep 15 '23 at 00:54
  • Oh, and would you look at that? A majority of governments in every continent did in fact vote in favor of the initial UN resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine. Wow, who'd have thought it? – Obie 2.0 Sep 15 '23 at 00:56
  • @obie2.0, yes indeed, cultural memory spans many generations, and the physical destruction caused by anarchic empire and decades of bank debt in neo-colonialism are ubiquitous too. Even french culture celebrates the french revolution and berates the british defeat of napoleon, and taking sides in that kind of argument, or the current war of the superpowers, is naive and destructive. Some nations were enemies with frequent war for many centuries, and an emotional investment in nationalism is the cause. Debt to the US and EU took 30% of many of those nation's govt budgets for decades until 2005 – bandybabboon Sep 16 '23 at 12:28
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Frame challenge. Quoting from the referenced article,

There has been a large shift in stance among countries that lean towards Russia, whose number has increased from 29 to 35

Leaning towards Russia does not mean supporting Russia's war in Ukraine. It just means that maintaining healthy economic and political relations with Russia is more important to these countries than whatever war is happening half a world away.

Unless you redefine what words mean, wishing to be on friendly terms with Russia does not mean supporting every action that Russian Federation's government takes.

alamar
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22

When you cast the conflict as "Russia Vs Ukraine", you've already made an assumption that many around the world are not making.

An alternative analysis is that this conflict is "Russia Vs The West". The West being the liberal capitalist world, centred on the USA but also including other main capitalist nations like Britain, France, Germany, and Japan, and various clubs of the same like NATO, AUKUS, the EU, and so on.

A great deal of the world doesn't see the West in rosy terms. They've either been colonised by the West, been invaded by the West, or at some point their relatives have died fighting the West or in some kind of Western attack.

In contrast, Russia (by inheritance from the Soviet era), is often seen as a benefactor that once helped tame the West.

Once starting from this different place, a much larger range of opinions are possible.

For some around the world, this is simply a faraway war. For others, it's "trouble at the mill" again - the West and Russia duking it out as usual, without particular preference for either. For others still, it's Russia finally making a stand against Western aggression.

Russia (again from Soviet inheritance) also has a very strong history as a multi-ethnic nation. Most of the world probably struggles to understand why Russian absorption is such a bad thing.

That sending of Ukrainian children away from the frontlines the West calls "genocide" (or less rhetorically, as "forced assimilation")? A lot of the world have experience of either sending their children away from the frontlines of Western chaos, or wanting to do so. Their view will be that this - taking in children from frontlines and treating them well - is a sign of civilised behaviour on Russia's part and an earnest desire for unity, not barbarism.

This is especially given that the Soviets built most of the place. The Zaporizhia nuclear plant they keep talking about keeping safe? The Soviets built that. The Kakhova dam? The Soviets built that - twice, once after destroying it against a Nazi onslaught. The Azovstal steelworks where a large Ukrainian force staged a last stand? The Soviets built that.

Insofar as Ukrainian independence gets considered at all, it is likely interpreted as a confected conflict that the West always provokes to weaken other regions of the world and weaken anyone who opposes the West.

That is, many will be inclined to view Zelensky as a Western puppet regime, not seeking "independence" at all, but seeking Western alignment, with Western capitalists already carving up its natural resources as in Iraq. Or like Karzai in Afghanistan, grifters who maintain power only with the barrel of the American gun.

Insofar as anyone can sustain the view that Zelensky isn't Western-backed and the conflict not Western-confected, the whole dispute is likely regarded as a charge of the light brigade. Ukraine have picked a conflict with a massively stronger immediate neighbour, over whom they can never prevail independently, and entirely over narcissistic minor differences.

I don't think many people do analyse it in this way local to Ukraine though. The geopolitical analysis, involving the West as one of the combatants, predominates.

Steve
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    I find this answer fascinating. First can you explain what you mean by "Ukraine have picked a conflict" ? Even if you accept that Ukraine is a puppet regime, have they actually provoked a conflict? Have they attacked Russia in any way which justifies an invasion? – mdarwin Sep 12 '23 at 12:07
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    @mdarwin, an anti-Russian brownshirt force had been operating in the years up to the outbreak of war, and the differences the Zelensky regime has with Russia is not limited to things like economic ideology, but concern ethnic separatism and suppression of the Russian language (with a separatist, rather than unitary, purpose), so certainly there were provocations. Finally, a refusal to give a guarantee on the NATO question appears to have been the actual trigger for military action. – Steve Sep 12 '23 at 13:19
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    It doesn't really matter that the arguments supporting the theory don't stand up to light scrutiny. This question is about why people hold the belief. The fact that it's indefensible doesn't change the fact that people believe it. – bharring Sep 12 '23 at 13:23
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    @bharring Agree. Upvoted, the question is why people hold these beliefs, not whether they are correct or not, and this as good a claim as any. – Italian Philosophers 4 Monica Sep 12 '23 at 15:15
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    "The Soviets built that" -- That's the old "Soviet Union == Russia" fallacy. "The Soviets" included the Ukraine, so saying "the Soviets built that" and actually trying to invoke the picture that "the Russiand built that" is not in good faith. – DevSolar Sep 13 '23 at 13:06
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    Also, the Soviet Union "built things" with the resources of the Soviet Union. Those resources came from somewhere. Like all the grain for Moscow that came from Ukraine during Holodormir. – bharring Sep 14 '23 at 12:53
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    And even before it's had to call "unity" when it's even back then only achieved at gunpoint. And that's not even going into the origins of what is today called "Russia" in the first place. Steve here is trying to sell the one (Soviet) side of the story as the lone "facts", something that should make any historian suspicious because there are never simple facts in history. – DevSolar Sep 14 '23 at 14:13
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    @Steve the anti-russian language laws, flirtation with NATO, and differences with Russia may have annoyed Russia, but I don't see how these provocations justify an invasion. – mdarwin Sep 22 '23 at 21:57
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    @mdarwin, the issue isn't annoyance, it's perceived Western interference. A refusal in the final instance not to join an aggressive foreign alliance, NATO, is something that those on the wrong side would tend to regard as justification for war. – Steve Sep 22 '23 at 23:10
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    As for anti-language laws, suppressing Ukranian goes back to Tsarist times, and introducing anti-Ukranian language laws "once Ukraine is conquered" was communicated explicitly as a goal of this "special operation", so this is the pot calling the kettle black. Likewise is claiming NATO being an "aggressive alliance". Also, the current Ukranian push towards NATO membership did not come about until the Second Yatsenyuk Government, i.e. post Crimea annexation / Russia-backed armed separatists in Donbas. Of course Ukraine would look for protection. In a line, stop spreading Putin's lies. – DevSolar Sep 25 '23 at 09:51
  • @DevSolar, I was careful to clarify the evil: anti-language laws with a separatist purpose. That is, attempting to manufacture disunity by artificially suppressing the use of an already unifying language. As for an "aggressive alliance", I'm not so much suggesting Russia isn't aggressive, as suggesting that the war has been taken directly to their frontier in this instance, and the tenets of MAD based on relative security have been violated. When it last happened in 1962-63, each side stepped back and put the nuclear weapons a little further back. (1/2) – Steve Sep 25 '23 at 10:08
  • As for suggesting it is natural that Ukraine should have sought a protection that has now induced its destruction, that obviously doesn't follow at all. Clearly, the risk of invasion was an important disciplinary measure upon Ukrainian politics and (from Russia's perspective) an important control upon the degree of US interference. It also gave the possibility of building unity between people in that region again by "roughly wooing" Ukraine back into the Russian fold. The Ukrainian regime attempting to avoid those possibilities (by joining NATO) has simply precipitated the invasion. (2/2) – Steve Sep 25 '23 at 10:16
  • @DevSolar, and in case it isn't clear, I'm against liberal-led balkanisation of states and disablement of democratic politics. The liberal loves to attack the state, because a unified state imposing policy upon the economy, is the only thing capable of controlling their attacks on ordinary people and imposing the popular will upon the rich. I'm in favour of nation-building, and I'm in favour of smaller nations being tried by military strength if necessary to build states out. – Steve Sep 25 '23 at 10:19
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    @Steve STOP LYING, for crying out loud. At least make an effort to be believable, or do you think us all that stupid? 1) Ukraine doesn't have WMD's (it relinquished them to Russia in exchange for the promise of territorial integrity), so talking about MAD is just misdirection. No "war" was taken "to the borders" of Russia. 2) Russian is not seen as a "unifying language" by those who matter here (Ukranians). 2012, legislation was passed allowing Russian to be voted official language by individual oblasts, and was voted such in several. That law was repealed after Russian invasion of Crimea. – DevSolar Sep 25 '23 at 10:28
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    So, again, misdirection / lies. 3) "Induced its destruction"? So you admit that Russia attacked a neighboring state with intention to destroy not only its territorial integrity, but its existence in total? 4) "Risk of invasion as an important disciplinary measure" in clear violation of UN charta, international law, and agreements signed by Russia no more than half a century ago (so Ukraine would relinquish its WMD's). 5) Unity by threat of force is not unity. – DevSolar Sep 25 '23 at 10:32
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  • "Disablement of democratic politics", when the independence of Ukraine was overwhelmingly voted in favor of? What's that "unity" then that you keep harking on about? Oh, yeah, yet more misdirection. 7) "Imposing the popular will upon the rich" is, last time I looked, both the whole point of EITHER Communism OR Democracy, so all that leaves is Dictatorship. Dropped the mask here a bit, did you?
  • – DevSolar Sep 25 '23 at 10:38
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  • "Smaller nations being tried by military strength" is, again, against the UN charta and international law. It's a casual justification of Japan 1937 and Germany 1939. And it's what Soviet Russia, and now, Russia, keeps doing -- diametrically opposed to what NATO is doing. So, please, spare us all the smoke and mirrors of calling NATO the aggressor here. If you feel "trying by military might" is OK, you'll have to live with the rest of the world forming alliances to oppose your aggression. So stop whining about it and trying to play the victim of anything.
  • – DevSolar Sep 25 '23 at 10:40
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    Basically, Ukraine is currently asserting itself "by military strength". By your own words, you should be OK with that. Why then lie about "brownshirt forces", "suppressing unifying language", or "choosing to be in the other camp" as justifications for war? Russia tried to annex Ukraine ("try by military strength", I just have to repeat this a couple times more to really believe you actually said that), because it (and you) felt it had the right to do so just because they believed they could. There's all the reason Ukraine needed to wish for NATO membership, right there. – DevSolar Sep 25 '23 at 10:47
  • @DevSolar, believe what you want. Re 1) I've explained the logic by which NATO is menacing Russia's interests. Countries go to war to protect those interests. I don't see what is false about that, or even unlikely about it. Re 2) my understanding is that the Ukrainian state was allowing brownshirts to menace those in the east of the country where sympathy for Russia is strongest. It's laws are irrelevant. In Northern Ireland, the beatings, killings, and outrages were all officially illegal. (1/3) – Steve Sep 25 '23 at 10:58
  • Re 3) I accept Russia has attacked the Ukrainian state - I'm not sure if they intended complete extinguishment and annexation (rather than regime change, say), but I accept they may do, probably depending on their appetite for pacification. Re 4) I accept Russia is renouncing international law as it is, although it is not seeking governance over any territory it didn't have in 1945 when it agreed to international law. (2/3) – Steve Sep 25 '23 at 10:58
  • Re 5) I accept that mere force doesn't create unity, but there's always a temporary impedance as smaller states are conquered and the citizenry integrated. I see no evidence of an intention to treat citizens of the annexed regions in a different way than Russian citizens generally. 3 long comments is enough, but in terms of Ukraine defending itself, I'm not impugning the courage of the soldiery - I oppose their Western liberal backers, and I know if the liberals back it, it's bad for working people. They'll be busy carving the place up now, under treaties of "international law". (3/3) – Steve Sep 25 '23 at 11:00
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    I accept Russia is renouncing international law as it is - So you have no grounds whatsoever to complain about anything. It is not seeking governance over any territory it didn't have in 1945 when it agreed to international law. - International law didn't spring into existence with the foundation of the UN. There was the League of Nations, for example, which Soviet Russia got kicked out of in 1939 for invading Finland. (They never did play nice, did they?) Anyway, how about I claim Germany in its borders of 1939? Or Italy claiming the Roman Empire? Ridiculous. – DevSolar Sep 25 '23 at 11:20
  • @DevSolar, who's complaining? I'm not Lavrov. I'm being perfectly straightforward with you about both the logic of the conflict, and about my own views. We are a long way from the circumstances in which international law was agreed - the liberals are back in charge, dissolving and balkanising states and attacking workers. And I'm quite happy to support those in the world who have the audacity to reject that. Look at Biden - do you really think after half a century in politics, he is boosting trade unions, reonshoring work, and criticising free trade, other than because of the chaos? – Steve Sep 25 '23 at 11:51
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    You can hark on about "the liberals" all you want (and ignoring that you are using this term in a rather US-centric way, which doesn't really apply here). The question is about why people think this war is justified. Your answer boils down to "might makes right", which is about the poorest justification one could imagine. Especially considering that Russia's military is being humbled and humiliated on a daily basis. – DevSolar Sep 25 '23 at 12:03
  • @DevSolar, I'm just thinking through "might makes right", since it's not immediately how I would have phrased my position. What do you think international law is? Do you think it exists for anything but the convenience of the mighty? And do you think the world cries when the laws laid down by a mighty evil are smashed? I'm "justifying" by explaining that most of the world sees Ukraine as nothing but the theatre in which major powers engage in trial by combat, and your objections in terms of law are mostly spurious because people around the world don't have any regard for liberals as judges. – Steve Sep 25 '23 at 12:53
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    Can we please not use terms like "roughly wooing"? If you want to use the concept, use the normal term for it. Doing so would obviously show just how unbelievably wrong the argument is, though. There is a reason the word is toxic to conversations. – bharring Sep 25 '23 at 13:27
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    As for NATO threats, pre hoc ergo promptor isn't even a fallacy, it's just stupid. Blaming the invasion in 2014 on Ukraine's response to said invasion is just crazy. – bharring Sep 25 '23 at 13:29
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    Brownshirts and other such suppression by the Ukrainian government before the original invasion is only slightly more reasonable: Ukraine had a Russian-friendly government until days before the invasion, so you'd be arguing they were the State that was anti-russian. – bharring Sep 25 '23 at 13:30
  • Oh, my dude... Ukrainian "separatists" achieved their goals 22 years before the very act of war by Russia. Nowadays Russia supports Ukrainian separatists (puppet """people republics""" at the eastern border). – Free Consulting Mar 24 '24 at 09:32
  • @FreeConsulting, I thought Russia had annexed those "republics" and absorbed the population as Russian citizens (not promoted their separate existence from both Russia and Ukraine)? The separatists don't seem to have achieved their goals, since their separate existence is now being extinguished (or at least their territorial extent and coverage of population is being curtailed) after less than even a single lifetime. – Steve Mar 24 '24 at 10:29
  • @Steve, they silently (w/o referendum) waived their sovereign status approx. half of year after blitzkrieg plan failed perhaps to allow Russia to harvest some cannon fodder. Russia have to win the war before coup d'etat to be proud of these new lands or celebrate victory against Ukrainian Nationalists, tho. The annexation of Crimea peninsula at least was much more definite **gray zone intensifies** – Free Consulting Mar 24 '24 at 11:09
  • @FreeConsulting, the intrinsic Ukrainian military capacity to resist was vanquished early on. It's now simply a conscript army fighting on behalf of Western liberals, who do not dare to escalate to nuclear war, and do not want to back down, so they bankroll things just enough to keep the meat grinder going and hope that Russia eventually fractures politically under all-round pressure not just on the battlefield, but also from propaganda, from sabotage, from sanctions, and so on. (1/2) – Steve Mar 24 '24 at 11:28
  • However, China will not allow Russia to fracture in this conflict, because it wants the fate of Ukraine to be a living advertisement, to the Taiwanese, of what happens when you get into bed with Western liberals from afar. Moreover, it is American politics that are seemingly fracturing sooner than Russian politics - Putin just romped home in an election, whereas Biden is down in the polls, Trump is back up, and Trump explicitly wants to cut Ukraine loose. (2/2) – Steve Mar 24 '24 at 11:29
  • Yeah, yeah, liberal prince Trump will step in and will save le petite Poutine in distress soon. Look like a wise plan for war XD – Free Consulting Mar 25 '24 at 09:35