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Inspired by the question How can we estimate the real support of the war among Russian citizens? and discussion therein.

Is there an estimate how many Ukrainians (on Ukrainian-controlled territory, anyway) would support, or demand, an immediate ceasefire and peace talks based on present zones of control? Based on the rational argument of preventing more deaths, or "a principled position to stop the war as immoral and/or too self-destructive accepting the current and potential future costs"?

This may obviously be hard to get since Ukraine has actual martial law in place to conduct the defensive war, and the consensus in Ukrainian state seems to be that the war has to go on, so people voicing opposite position may be seen as trying to sabotage these efforts. So the preference would be to independent sources, ideally ones with base of operation outside Ukraine.

Timur Shtatland
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alamar
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    The question seems to be based on the assumption that Ukraine is as unfree as Russia. Do you have sources to back that assumption? – o.m. Dec 27 '22 at 13:50
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    @o.m. Ukraine is fighting an existential war in the state of emergency. Under emergency laws, you can't use many of the freedoms even if you had them before; such as electing a new government or arguing that maybe the efforts it take to fight such a war are better spent elsewhere. – alamar Dec 27 '22 at 14:11
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    "a principled position to stop the war as immoral". Offensive war is immoral. Defending oneself is justified. Letting your children be abducted, your women raped and your civilians muredered is immoral. – Tadeusz Kopec Dec 27 '22 at 15:41
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    I feel this question is suitable here only if you can provide sources of polling data done in Ukraine, and then seek our opinion on it. Otherwise, your question is indeed a duplicate of https://politics.stackexchange.com/q/74956/45056 and you should refer to that. If you are not satisfied with the answer ask in the comment there for more clarifications. – sfxedit Dec 27 '22 at 17:28
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    @TadeuszKopec None of those concerns prevent ceasefire based on already established front lines. That sounds like something which may be polled for. – alamar Dec 27 '22 at 18:06
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    Does this answer your question? How do Western countries know that Ukrainians massively support the continuation of resistance? – sfxedit Dec 27 '22 at 19:59
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    @alamar Polling data is one thing. But as we saw in Afghanistan - I had a similar question about it - polls do not actually fight wars. The fact that Ukraine is holding out would seem a strong indicator that, as a whole, they are fairly highly committed to this fight. At the troop and civilian level. Although I do suspect that at least some people may not have been entirely enchanted to be liberated in some of the recovered territories, if they either willfully collaborated or were forced to collaborate. – Italian Philosophers 4 Monica Dec 27 '22 at 22:57
  • Ukraine does not control a dozen of towns in multiple regions for almost a year now, if only behind Feb 24 borders. People have to shop for groceries, go to child care/school, earn a living, get retirement benefits - which makes almost everybody a collaborationist. – alamar Dec 27 '22 at 23:10
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    @alamar It's not about going to groceries in occupied areas, it's about helping to hunt those, that were on proscription lists – Tadeusz Kopec Dec 28 '22 at 10:20
  • Why? You buy groceries on occupied territory with Rubles instead of finding a way to defect to Ukraine proper. That makes you complicit. – alamar Dec 28 '22 at 12:04
  • This question appears to ignore the opinions of Ukranian refugees in other countries. Was that deliberate, or did you only intend to exclude areas under Russian control? – Joel Harmon Jan 01 '23 at 19:38

1 Answers1

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The most recent poll results conducted by Gallup (a widely known, independent organization not based in Ukraine) are below. They indicate that the majority of Ukrainians want to fight to liberate all of the territory of Ukraine from the Russian invaders.

A clear majority -- 70% of all Ukrainians interviewed in early September -- say their country should continue fighting until it wins the war with Russia. Just over one in four (26%) favor negotiating to end it as soon as possible. [...]

Ukrainians who said their country should fight on until victory were asked a follow-up question about what would have to happen for Ukraine to declare victory. About nine in 10 (91%) said that victory would entail Ukrainian forces retaking all territory that Russia has seized since 2014, including Crimea.

Ukrainians' Views on the Future of the War With Russia

Ukrainians' Definition of Victory in the War With Russia

RJ Reinhart, "Ukrainians Support Fighting Until Victory", October 18, 2022: https://news.gallup.com/poll/403133/ukrainians-support-fighting-until-victory.aspx

The above results agree with the results of another recent poll, this one conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (based in Ukraine), below.

A new nationwide poll released this week underlined the current mood of defiance across the country. Conducted on October 21-23 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the survey found that 86% of respondents supported the continuation of Ukraine’s military counteroffensive and rejected negotiations despite Russia’s escalating airstrikes against civilian targets.

Peter Dickinson, "Poll: 86% of Ukrainians want to fight on despite Russian terror bombing", October 25, 2022: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-defiant-as-putins-terror-bombing-plunges-cities-into-darkness/

Dickinson cites the original poll results, in Ukrainian (translation mine):

Despite the Russian shelling, which destroys infrastructure and takes lives, 86% of respondents answered that the armed fight should still continue, even if the shelling continues. In particular, among them, 71% completely agree with this opinion (the remaining 16% rather agree).

By comparison, only 10% of respondents answered that it is necessary to proceed to negotiations to stop the shelling as soon as possible, even if that means making concessions to Russia.

Anton Hrushetskyy, "Russian shelling of Ukrainian cities: continuation of armed fight or a shift to negotiations", October 24, 2022: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=1151

Timur Shtatland
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    It's a bit odd to see 26% for negotiations asap and also 90% for retaking Crimea. While one can understand wanting to get Crimea back, Russia is nowhere near beaten enough to negotiate on any basis of restituting Crimea. – Italian Philosophers 4 Monica Dec 28 '22 at 01:15
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    @ItalianPhilosophers4Monica (a) To clarify the reported percentages, 26% of the total respondents were for negotiations asap, and 70% of the total respondents were for continuation of fighting until victory. Out of these 70%, 91% were for retaking all Ukrainian territory including Crimea (which makes it 70% * 91% = 64% of the total respondents). (b) I agree that Russia is not willing to negotiate on Crimea now. But it is possible for Ukraine to simply kick the Russian invaders out of Crimea in the same fashion it kicked them out of Kyiv oblast, Kharkiv oblast, as well as Kherson. – Timur Shtatland Dec 28 '22 at 14:57