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There're definitely people in Russia who are against the "special military operation" - c.f. protests after Putin ordered a partial mobilization.

Have any of these people explained what their preferred end state* looks like? For example, most Ukrainians are against any end state that involves ceding Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea. Are there anti-war parties in Russia that agree with cancelling recognition for Donetsk/Luhansk and returning Crimea to Ukraine?

I'm especially curious if Alexi Navalny has said anything. I know he has said "stop the war", but I'm unaware if he's described how he prefers to resolve the status of Donestk/Luhansk/Crimea.

*Definition: "end state" is the state after any formal peace treaty is signed. If no peace treaty is ever signed (e.g. the situation between North Korea and South Korea), then presumably the end state would be uti possidetis.

Tangentially related: Is there a faction in the Ukrainian parliament favoring an immediate ceasefire? and Is there a political faction in Russia publicly advocating for an immediate ceasefire? which establish that these factions do exist, but do not explain what their preferred end state is.

Allure
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    I've judiciously avoided using a certain word that people seem to automatically associate with 'desirable'. – Allure Sep 22 '22 at 08:59
  • What is meant here by the end state? If this is the state in a formal peace agreement, recognized by all sides, then it may take decades to achieve and the question is highly hypothetical. If one talks about a possible ceasefire then ceding Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea is a misleading language, since Ukraine didn't control these at the beginning of the fighting. – Roger V. Sep 22 '22 at 09:09
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    @RogerVadim "end state" is the state after any formal peace treaty is signed. If that takes decades to achieve, then presumably even the anti-Ukraine war parties in Russia are pro-war in the sense that they will not agree to meet Ukraine's preferred end state. Ukraine's preferred end state seems pretty clear (all Russians out of pre-war Ukrainian borders, Crimea returned). – Allure Sep 22 '22 at 09:13
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    It is worth clarifying this in the question. Also: one should not confuse anti-Putin, anti-war, and pro-Ukraine parties: the conflict has many dimensions: economic, historical, cultural, ethnic, etc. While these did not necessarily imply a military confrontation, they may delay ending it. – Roger V. Sep 22 '22 at 09:19
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    As an example: no one in Russia is seriously in favor of war with Japan, but there is still no formal peace treaty. – Roger V. Sep 22 '22 at 09:30
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    It's reasonable to ask what Navalny says; it's not reasonable to ask what any of the large number of people who oppose the war think because there could be a thousand or a million different answers. – Stuart F Sep 22 '22 at 09:42
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    Someone may wat to look up the quotes exactly, but... "Navalny’s unclear position on the future of Russian-occupied Crimea and often ambiguous statements regarding Ukrainian sovereignty have generated considerable pessimism among Ukrainian audiences over his possible future role in Russian politics." https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/alexei-navalny-is-a-russian-nationalist-but-he-may-still-be-good-news-for-ukraine/ That was in 2021. – the gods from engineering Sep 22 '22 at 09:49
  • And "The recent focus on Navalny’s nationalist and imperialist statements has caused many Ukrainians to recall the old political proverb that states, “Russian liberalism ends at the border with Ukraine.” [...] His refusal, for instance, to publicly support the immediate return of Crimea to Ukraine is viewed as completely unacceptable by most Ukrainians. However, this position is hardly exceptional in the contemporary Russian mainstream discourse." – the gods from engineering Sep 22 '22 at 09:50
  • @StuartF anyone reasonably high profile will do. – Allure Sep 22 '22 at 10:11
  • @RogerVadim Russia and Japan are not at war, though. If Navalny's (or whoever's) preferred end state is a ceasefire and uti possidetis, then that's an answer. If it's status quo ante bellum, that is also an answer. – Allure Sep 22 '22 at 10:13
  • Well, my point was that the question needs clarity on what is meant by the end state. – Roger V. Sep 22 '22 at 10:30
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    I don't think most people think that deeply about it. "Stop sending us to war" is pretty much going to be the extent of it for the most of them, I'd say. I don't recall Vietnam war protesters precisely defining what their end condition looks like, other than "us not going to Vietnam". – JamieB Sep 23 '22 at 13:30
  • @JamieB But the question is not about the common citizen, but "anti-war parties". It seems fair to ask what the intended end state of the current situation for these would look like. A party or movement that's against the war looks very different to the eyes in the west than a party that's against doing a bad job at war. In the same way many countries in the west don't seem to look too kindly at recent RUS refugees who were not against the war until they themselves became supposed to fight it. – xLeitix Sep 23 '22 at 13:40
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    You don't know what most Ukrainians want. – user1721135 Sep 23 '22 at 15:19
  • A month later, still no direct answer. – alamar Oct 24 '22 at 20:05

2 Answers2

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A. Navalny said on February 24, 2022:

The war with Ukraine has been unleashed to cover up the robbery of Russian citizens and divert their attention away from the country’s internal problems, from the degradation of its economy

Seems logical to think that the end state would be a peace agreement without achieving the goals intended for this war. Trying to understand that exactly the "robbery" means, there are over $300 billion of Russian central bank assets that have been moved out of the country. Enough to colonize the Moon with $4.2 billion per Artemis launch. These can potentially be viewed by the opposition as money that the Russian government have stolen from the own people, by extracting them from the economy and putting aside. This happened before the war, before the sanctions. The money are now frozen (as per sanctions for Ukraine invasion).

Later, Garry Kasparov said in an interview from August 2022 (emphasis in the original transcript):

We cannot study Alexei Navalny’s point of view because he is in prison, but Leonid Volkov, indicated, during a debate with myself, that the matter was closed after 24 February and Crimea is Ukrainian

Hence the answer could probably be that A. Navalny and his staff members currently suggest the removal of Russian forces from the territory of Ukraine. This differs from what A. Navalny said about the Crimea before the invasion when he claimed that people living there should decide.

Stančikas
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  • Comments deleted. Please remember that Politics Stack Exchange is not a discussion forum. Comments on answers should aim to improve the answer, not to debate its subject matter. – Philipp Sep 23 '22 at 09:15
  • I'm not sure I understand your Trying to understand [what] exactly the "robbery" means sentence, the vast majority of the sanctions were enacted after the date assigned to that quote, and contextually it seems to be referencing internal problems, which would be an odd followup to "sanctions stole from the people". – DBS Sep 23 '22 at 13:18
  • I include the sentence because lots of previous comments addressed this money. EU/USA think to hand the money to Ukraine now, to repair the damage as done by Russia. – Stančikas Sep 23 '22 at 14:56
  • Well if you as a B give A's money to C that's theft. So they need an a-OK from Russia to do so, or basically suffer a default. – alamar Oct 24 '22 at 20:06
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Partial & somewhat tangential answer: it seems that in 2019, most Russians preferred independence for Donetsk/Luhansk. That makes it seem like the preferred end-state of anti-war parties in Russia is also independence for the two regions.

The survey also asked Russians whether they supported a similar annexation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, where Russia-backed fighters have been battling Ukrainian forces since April 2014 and now hold parts of both provinces, including their administrative centers. More than 13,000 people have died in the fighting, and more than 1 million have been displaced.

An overwhelming majority said that the separatist-held areas should not be part of Ukraine: 29 percent supported annexation, and 46 percent said they should be independent states. Just 13 percent said they should remain part of Ukraine.

Tons and tons of caveats to this, though, the two major ones being 1) 2019 is not 2022, and 2) independence for Donetsk/Luhansk - and they were independent for a few months prior to being annexed into Russia recently - presumably won't stop the war, because it's still incompatible with Ukraine's preferred end state.

Update: An October 2023 poll suggests that most Russians are OK with ending the war if they can keep the occupied territories, and want to keep fighting otherwise. The poll also says that most Russians feel that "protecting residents of Ukraine's Donbas region - home to a large minority of ethnic Russians - [is] the main reason for starting the war."

This suggests that the preferred end-state for Russia is annexing the separatist regions into Russia. They might also accept UN-administered referendums on whether to remain in Ukraine.

This state is, of course, incompatible with Ukraine's preferred end state, hence the war will likely go on.

Allure
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