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Are there any indications why Russia decided to threaten and then invade Ukraine at the time it did?

In particular:

  • The two countries were already at war with each other since 2014. Have there been any changes in the situation which could explain the timing of the invasion?
  • Could it be related to some domestic factors in Russia which provided the Russian government with some kind of political opportunity?

To explain the context of my question: potentially the Russian government could have started their attack at any time in the past 8 years, for example in the middle of the Covid pandemic or during the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. It could also have waited longer. There is certainly a reason why Putin chose this particular time, but of course I'm aware that this reason might be unknown.

Erwan
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  • This is a different question and not a duplicate, now that Putin actually did invade. It is also highly relevant. An invasion in winter 2022 might have been smarter for 3 reasons: Russian tanks would have firm frozen ground to drive on, not mud, Europe needs gas for heating in winter making giving Russia more influence, and Nordstream2 would probably have been operational, giving Russia more and Ukraine less influence. So why now? – Ivana Jun 09 '22 at 13:50
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    @Ivana But the question doesn't make that distinction. As it stands now, you'd have to alter the question to add your inference, but that would change the meaning of the question. And the answers are unlikely to be distinct from the duplicate. – Machavity Jun 09 '22 at 14:02

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