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Ukraine war of February 2022.

With hindsight it seems that the Americans knew a lot about the Russian plans long before the war started. Sure, they saw them amassing the troops on the border, but it wasn't the first time it happened. Now, they almost anticipated their battle plans. Is it possible that the Russians prepared them in advance to ensure their neutrality?

NoDataDumpNoContribution
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FluidCode
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  • There may be different kinds of amassing troops. Maybe the pattern of the troop concentration was different this time and more clearly indicating an attack. The US probably also has spies in Russia. I don't think though that Russia intentionally revealed their plans, they would surely rather win the war. Also, it may just be a "lucky" guess. In an alternative universe, Putin may not have given the command to start the war. Surely there were elements of uncertainty and the US warnings did account for them by using language to say that it's only their opinion. – NoDataDumpNoContribution Feb 28 '22 at 09:16
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    Exactly what special knowledge did they have? The routes for Russia to invade Ukraine are fairly obvious, particularly coupled with knowledge of the locations of Russian forces which was also very obvious from satellite/airborne surveillance. – Stuart F Feb 28 '22 at 10:12

1 Answers1

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I doubt this is fully verifiable to the public, but there are many conceivable ways, some obvious (and verifiable), others speculative.

The obvious way is via satellite monitoring. Google Maps includes satellite images of the whole world, and it's obvious that the US military will have even better capabilities. They can, therefore, see the Russian military units in action. This kind of reconnaissance can be seen in some news articles, e.g. this.

The other way is espionage. You can be sure the US (and Ukraine/Russia) are constantly attempting to spy on each other. It's possible that one or several of the Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine right now are secretly US spies, and they relayed information about the upcoming attack.

Is it possible that the Russians prepared them in advance to ensure their neutrality?

Given that Russia did not inform China prior to attacking, this is extraordinarily unlikely.

Allure
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  • "Given that Russia did not inform China prior ..." China has no troops deployed nearby and much less power on the international stage. – FluidCode Feb 28 '22 at 09:47
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    While I expect the US military has better capabilities, most detail imagery on Google Earth/Google Maps is from flyover cameras on planes, helicopters and drones. There is satellite imagery of course but it’s very low resolution, not enough to make out individual buildings, let alone troops and vehicles (although a very large lit up camp in an otherwise dark area would be visible even for commercial satellites). – Cubic Feb 28 '22 at 12:08
  • Not to mention that Biden, as has been asked here, made a large number of claims about what Russia was up to. Some of which were bound to happen once Putin decided to move past negotiations. – Italian Philosophers 4 Monica Mar 01 '22 at 01:11
  • "Given that Russia did not inform China prior ..." There seem to be suggestions coming out that Putin may well have informed Xi Jinping at the beginning of the olympics. –  Mar 01 '22 at 23:57
  • @WolfieSmith if that were the case, China would likely have warned their citizens in Ukraine before the attack. – Allure Mar 02 '22 at 00:02
  • @Allure, I think you overestimate the Chinese desire to protect a miniscule amount of citizens outside its own borders, especially when the opportunity to watch Europe fight itself arises. Bear in mind they did give them instructions to fly the Chinese flag so the Russians would not hurt them on the day of the invasion. –  Mar 02 '22 at 00:19
  • ...and Russia and China signed a pact on the first day of the Olympics, promising to aid each other to defend against US aggression by any and all means necessary... –  Mar 02 '22 at 00:21
  • @WolfieSmith yes, while many other countries prudently got their citizens out of the soon-to-be conflict zone. But why go there? Here's a source that says Russia didn't inform Ukraine. https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/chinese-embassy-in-ukraine-tells-citizens-to-display-chinese-flags-on-vehicles To quote "Asked if Mr Putin had told China that he was planning to invade Ukraine, Ms Hua said Russia, as an independent power, did not need to seek the consent of China." – Allure Mar 02 '22 at 00:23
  • ...and in this same pact China promised to not interfere with Russia over Ukraine, and Russia promised to not interfere over Taiwan in return. –  Mar 02 '22 at 00:24
  • This invasion, from the point of view of China, is perfect. They get to judge the reaction of NATO before they do the same over Taiwan - if it goes well for Russia, they get Russian support when they go for Taiwan, and if it goes badly for Russia they can still deny everything on the world stage. –  Mar 02 '22 at 00:31
  • @Allure, your source is a Chinese government spokesperson who, in polite diplomatic terms, refused to answer the question asked of them by answering a different one. Telling somebody of your plans is not the same as asking them for permission. –  Mar 02 '22 at 00:40
  • @WolfieSmith still better than no source. And here's another source if you are really interested: https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/china-was-woefully-unprepared-for-the-russia-ukraine-war/ – Allure Mar 02 '22 at 01:19
  • @Allure, all that article tells me, outside of editorial supposition, is that even when it was blatantly obvious to the whole international community that an invasion was imminent, China still thought it's citizens would be safe from Russian aggression as long as they displayed their nationality. It's only as the invasion went wrong that they lost focus and panicked over a new public stance. –  Mar 02 '22 at 01:29
  • @WolfieSmith you are free to believe whatever you want. I will not argue with you. – Allure Mar 02 '22 at 01:31
  • @Allure the NYT seems to come to the same conclusion as me, so I'm not alone, at least.. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/us/politics/us-china-russia-ukraine.html –  Mar 02 '22 at 03:31
  • @WolfieSmith I don't see anything in that article saying that China knew of the invasion before it happened. Please quote the exact sentences. – Allure Mar 02 '22 at 03:33