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Given the annexation of Crimea in 2014: one could argue that Ukrainian officials considered joining NATO between 2015 and 2021. What if any obstacles did Ukraine face to joining NATO during 2015-2021?

A Google search of NATO membership requirements returned:

gatorback
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3 Answers3

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Hungary effectively opposed their membership, for instance, since 2018. According to the MFA of Hungary

Since 2018, Hungary has been blocking ministerial-level political meetings between NATO and Ukraine as a sign of protest over Ukraine violating the human rights of its ethnic minorities.

And more simple terms Reuters paraphrased sometime in 2019 that

Hungary’s foreign minister on Wednesday said Budapest would block Ukraine’s membership in NATO until Kiev restored the rights that ethnic Hungarians had before a language law curbed minorities’ access to education in their mother tongues.

I'm less sure what might have happened between 2015-2018. But the conflict in Eastern Ukraine was already ongoing even then. And I'm daring to quote from TASS on this, which probably is close enough to the source, a 2021 interview with the German ambassador to Ukraine:

The conflict in Donbass and the situation around Crimea, which Kiev considers Ukrainian, are obstructions for Kiev’s accession to NATO, German Ambassador to Ukraine Anka Feldhausen said in an interview for Ukrainian television on Friday.

"The fact remains - there is a military conflict in Ukraine. It is always difficult for NATO to accept new countries with such ongoing conflicts," she said.

When asked whether the conflict in east Ukraine and the situation around Crimea are obstructions for Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance, the envoy said "yes."

It is fairly correct to say that according to the principles laid out some decades ago, NATO will not easily consider membership of countries with active military conflicts.

States which have ethnic disputes or external territorial disputes, including irredentist claims, or internal jurisdictional disputes must settle those disputes by peaceful means in accordance with OSCE principles. Resolution of such disputes would be a factor in determining whether to invite a state to join the Alliance.


And the heavyweights of NATO were not exactly keen either...

“There are steps that Ukraine needs to take,” Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said in September after President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine met with Mr. Biden in the Oval Office. “They’re very familiar with these: efforts to advance rule of law reforms, modernize its defense sector and expand economic growth.” [...]

“The principal objection would be: Does such a move actually contribute to the stability in Europe, or would it contribute to destabilization?” said Douglas E. Lute, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO. “I think it’s indisputable there wouldn’t be consensus among the 30 members, even though all allies agree that Ukraine has the right to aspire to become a NATO member.”

the gods from engineering
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  • I think the "not easily" part in your penultimate paragraph is the key here. – o.m. Feb 25 '22 at 06:58
  • @o.m.: yeah, it's not an absolute showstopper, as some sometimes portray that issue. On the other hand, accession does require unanimity, so a country (like Hungary) opposing is a bigger practical issue, unless they can be persuaded (or "bought off" depending how much realpolitik you want to infuse here) by either the applicant country or their larger friends... – the gods from engineering Feb 26 '22 at 03:04
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The sources you link set out membership criteria. Ukraine still had problems regarding the economy, rule of law, etc.

NATO could have made the decision to admit Ukraine even if it does not meet the criteria, but then NATO could also have decided to defend a non-member state, and it didn't do that. NATO said that it would defend NATO members only. They are not prepared to start WWIII over Ukraine.

o.m.
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  • I'm not sure why this got downvoted. No citations, but it's rather correct factually if one bothers to find what the Western diplomats have been saying about this issue. – the gods from engineering Feb 26 '22 at 03:50
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Accession to NATO is not possible for countries with unresolved territorial conflicts. For example, this document, referring to post-URSS NATO enlargement states:

States which have ethnic disputes or external territorial disputes, including irredentist claims, or internal jurisdictional disputes must settle those disputes by peaceful means in accordance with OSCE principles. Resolution of such disputes would be a factor in determining whether to invite a state to join the Alliance.

Given that the annexation of Crimea and the self proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, Ukraine was in the state if a territorial conflict with Russia and the above mentioned republics. It's accession to NATO would then make the other 30 members into parties of this conflict as well. A conflict between nuclear powers is not very desirable.

@o.m. has brought to my attentuion one seeming exception to this rule: the inclusion of West Germany in 1955. One could argue that the situation of the West Germany was significantly different from that in Ukraine: it was not a state with internationally recognized borders that whad been violated, but rather a one newly created from the three occupation zones. Still, West Germany laid a claim to represent all of the Germany, which remained unfullfilled till 1990s.

It is hard to say whether NATO could do a similar exception for Ukraine - if it tried, it would be likely swiftly pre-empted by Russia... which might be exactly what has just happened.

Roger V.
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    It would be possible if NATO wanted. Germany joined with an obvious territorial issue. – o.m. Feb 25 '22 at 06:12
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    @o.m. This is factually incorrect: East and West Germany were created as two independent states with no territorial claims to each other. Moreover, East Germany was recognized by NATO members. – Roger V. Feb 25 '22 at 06:31
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    Are you aware of the Hallstein Doctrine? – o.m. Feb 25 '22 at 06:35
  • @o.m. are you aware that there are some differences between Ukraine and post-war Germany? You start with a sweeping generalization, and then hope to get out on technicalities? – Roger V. Feb 25 '22 at 06:42
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    My point is that NATO can admit anybody NATO wants to admit. There is no (international) law to stop them. So if NATO wants to admit a nation that wants to join, they will order their diplomats to write things up. It is a political question, not a legal question. – o.m. Feb 25 '22 at 06:44
  • @o.m. ok, I don't think your remark negates my answer, but it is certainly a relevant one. I will modify it, as soon as I am behind a desktop. – Roger V. Feb 25 '22 at 07:35
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    There are plenty of NATO members with territorial disputes, even with other NATO members, though as far as I know they are all relatively trivial. Still, they are unsettled. The examples that come to mind are France with Italy and Slovenia with Croatia, all now NATO members. But Croatia also has a border dispute with non-member Serbia, and a quick look through the relevant Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_territorial_disputes) turns up more than a few more between members and non-members. – phoog Feb 25 '22 at 09:52
  • @phoog thank you for the comment. The debate about France and Italy is about whether the top of Mont Blanc is in France or in Italy, the other debates in the list are of similar symbolic nature... except for those among the former parts of Yugoslavia, where the NATO itself imposed the borders with not-so-subtle bombing campaigns in 1995 and 1999. I could add it to my answer... if you think it is important. – Roger V. Feb 25 '22 at 10:01
  • I don't know whether it's important -- I suppose that depends on why NATO overlooked these disputes, if it ever explained officially. But the borders in former Yugoslavia were certainly not imposed by NATO. Most of them predate the formation of Yugoslavia and even of the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes. – phoog Feb 25 '22 at 10:07
  • @phoog these states previously were not independent, and these borders were never agreed upon after the break-up of the Yugoslavia (hence the disputes), and they exist within these broders thanks to the NATO interference. If one goes as far back as formation of Yugoslavia and other political entities, then, by the same measure, one has to acknowledge the Russian claims to Crimea. – Roger V. Feb 25 '22 at 10:15
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    Some of the states previously were independent (Serbia), and, regardless, they have centuries of history as distinct territories (Croatia, BiH) within larger empires. For example, the present borders around Neum are due to Yugoslavia's decision, after WWII, to return to the borders of 1878. Nobody is disputing that now; the disputes are about where the borders actually lie, or about whether borders defined by rivers should change with the course of the river. That's very different from a dispute about the validity of a peaceful transfer of territory from one republic to another (Crimea). – phoog Feb 25 '22 at 11:02
  • @phoog You seem to be confounding legal borders with geografical ones. – Roger V. Feb 25 '22 at 11:24