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I've seen quite of lot of reporting about the number of republicans who agree with Trump that the election was rigged or stolen.

Politico Reuters Vox (Jan)

In this question the most popular answer asserts that poor behaviour by party leaders would be punished at subsequent elections. The quote below references behaviour around committee assignments, it is not directly about the Stop the Steal situation.

But then the retribution would be swift and severe. The majority party would become the minority party at the next election. Only those in bluest of blue districts when the Democrats are in the majority (or those in the reddest of red districts when the Republicans are in the majority) would see such a move as a good thing.

Is there any polling on if Trump's behaviour has had an effect like this?

Is there any data on voters intending to change their future party preference based on the actions of Trump or the Republican leadership during the 'Stop the Steal' period?

Jontia
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    I guess part of the question is, do Trump supporters generally consider his behaviour to be “bad”? – Tim Feb 07 '21 at 14:06
  • You're misinterpreting the answer you are referencing. That answer says that, when the current minority party ceases to be in the minority (which is bound to happen, it's a matter of when), then they will use that power in the same way that it was used against them. – Joe C Feb 07 '21 at 14:22
  • Do you have any polls more recent than November 2020? A lot has happened since then. – SurpriseDog Feb 07 '21 at 15:05
  • @JoeC the other question answer says 'the retribution would be swift and severe. The majority party would become the minority party at the next election' that very much seems to be about voters. – Jontia Feb 07 '21 at 15:10
  • @SurpriseDog Jan 8 to 11th any better? https://www.vox.com/2021/1/11/22225531/joe-biden-trump-capitol-inauguration – Jontia Feb 07 '21 at 15:14
  • It's better, but I suspect a poll asked directly after the shocking events at the Capitol would suffer from a social desirability bias (aka the "Shy Trumper factor" which caused an A+ pollster to estimate Wisconsin at Biden +17 - a truly monumental polling error). A poll in February, now that things have calmed down a bit would be more accurate. – SurpriseDog Feb 07 '21 at 15:34
  • @SurpriseDog you think a 72% republican voters and 50% GOP members agree election was stolen, in a poll after the events on the 6th Jan represents a shy Trumper effect? – Jontia Feb 07 '21 at 15:45
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    I think any poll with a severely non socially acceptable answer will be vastly underrepresented. See also: Any poll about sex, virginity, drug use and so on... – SurpriseDog Feb 07 '21 at 15:52
  • My answer to the linked question addresses extremely bad behavior on the part of politicians, and assumes key voters will act sanely and reject that extremely bad behavior. That assumption might not be valid. That said, more than enough voters did reject Trump and did give the Democrats a tie in the Senate. Moreover, a number of voters in states where political alliance is required have switched their alliance from Republican to independent. This does not mean these former declared Republican voters won't continue to vote for candidates of their former party. – David Hammen Feb 07 '21 at 15:59
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    Georgia (was it Georgia?) senate elections were a good indication that the Republicans were punished for Trump's behaviour. – gnasher729 Feb 07 '21 at 16:02
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    @gnasher729 That's correct. It was Georgia, and also Alabama in 2018. That Alabama election was a very special case. The Republican primary chose a candidate who was about as unelectable as could be for that special election. The Republicans would have fared much better had they chosen a college football coach with zero background in politics back in 2018. They did choose a college football coach with zero background in politics as their candidate in 2020, and he won. – David Hammen Feb 07 '21 at 16:05
  • There is perhaps a problem here, in the assumption that being a "Republican voter" is fixed. A cursory search finds lots of stories about an unprecedented number of voters dropping Republican registration: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/536113-tens-of-thousands-of-voters-drop-republican-affiliation-after-capitol – jamesqf Feb 07 '21 at 17:44
  • @jamesqf being a republican 2020 votes is fixed. But the GOP membership drop, of just under 1% is a useful data point. – Jontia Feb 07 '21 at 17:56
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    @jamesqf It's hard to say whether that dropoff is because of people frustrated with Trump or rather that they were frustrated with Republicans not coming to Trump's aid. Someone who blames Trump for the riot and leaves the party over it is indistinguishable from someone who is upset with the Republican establishment for not rallying around Trump and leaves the party over it. – Ryan_L Feb 07 '21 at 20:07
  • @Ryan_L: Repulbicans not coming to Trump's aid? The great majority of elected Republicans have done just that. Though something might be learned by examining the increase of other party registrations. If lots change from Republican to Democrat, Libertarian, or Green, we might conclude that Trump's the problem. If to more right-wing minor parties, the opposite. – jamesqf Feb 08 '21 at 17:19
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    @DavidHammen Moore was as unelectable as could be? I think if he had been outed as gay and/or atheist, that would have hurt him more than being outed as a child predator. – Acccumulation Feb 09 '21 at 06:46
  • @jamesqf From what I've read, many of the self-declared Republican voters who have changed their voter registration in those states whose voter registration rules require party alignment have re-registered themselves as independents. – David Hammen Feb 09 '21 at 08:34

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What polling I've seen suggests that Trump still holds (lessened) sway within the GOP, but there are a lot of difficulties judging the meaningfulness of polling this far out from the next election cycle even in the best of cases, and current conditions do not represent a 'best case' scenario for pollsters. Things to consider:

First, Republicans are still in crisis after the events of January, making attitudes fluid. The ideology/mythology surrounding Trump has run up against reality is some seriously jarring ways: the (for most people) unexpected violence on Jan 6, Trump's implicit concession by leaving the White House, the various expected outcomes that simply did not materialize (proof of voting fraud, martial law, retention of congressional control, action by Pence or state legislatures, the 'righteous' removal of Biden by other means, etc). Many people are still clinging to the Trumpist worldview, but that worldview is producing a tremendous amount of cognitive dissonance, and cognitive dissonance on that level usually leads to schism: some die-hards will double down on the original vision, while the less committed will start to deflect, deny, and depart (note the numbers of capitol rioters and far-right groups who have explicitly stated they feel betrayed by Trump, and rejected his leadership). Whether or not Trumpism will still have the influence needed to alter Congressional races two years from now — after an ongoing drain of those who flip away from an increasingly disturbing and losing position — is an open question.

Second, Trump himself is notoriously transactional, and has never shown any indicators of long-term planning or loyalty. In two years time, Trump may decide it's in his personal interest to back Cheney and toss Greene under the bus, and those who are still influenced by him will follow suit. Trump may even decide that he is sick of actual politics, and turn his influencing capabilities to other avenues. So even if polls suggest that significant numbers will remain loyal to Trump, it isn't at all clear that Trump of 2022 will have any political continuity with Trump of 2021.

Third, a lot rides on Biden's first 100 days. Trump based his politics on the exploitation of grievance; Biden's agenda is largely (though subtly) aimed at removing the grievances that Trump exploited. Note, for example, how he talks about revitalizing communities that have traditionally been dependent on the fossil fuel industry by bringing in green-tech jobs, making an outwardly progressive policy point attractive to a significant section of the GOP base. If Biden succeeds in removing those grievances, Trump's style of politics will lose impact (at least outside of certifiably aggrieved groups, like white supremacists and conspiracy theorists). Biden (I think) is counting on the fact that most people, most of the time, just want good prospects, and that giving them those prospects will ease a lot of political tensions.

Ted Wrigley
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    I think this is useful and interesting, so it has my +1. I'm just not sure it's more than "wait and see" as an answer. – Jontia Feb 08 '21 at 21:58