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Islamic State oil is being more or less freely smuggled into Turkey, while foreign Jihadists are moving unhindered through Turkey into Iraq and Syria to join IS.

Kurds, however, are being prevented from moving through Turkey under any circumstances, Humanitarian or otherwise.

Are Erdogan and his party covert Islamic State sympathizers?

John Woo
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    This is so on the border of being a rant :) We expect questions to be objectively answerable. In my mind, if an answer can show a reasonable difference of opinion between Erdogan and the IS, it is an answer. – Affable Geek Oct 14 '14 at 18:47
  • You do realise that if a group is covert sympathizers then by definition we can't prove it. Perhaps they covertly sympathize with the agenda of the Lizard People. – LateralFractal Oct 15 '14 at 00:31
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    @LateralFractal Insider sources could certainly substantiate the claim, for example. – John Woo Oct 15 '14 at 08:06
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    @AffableGeek This is not a rant because I am not trying to prove that Erdogan is more hostile towards the Kurds than IS; that is simply a fact. I want to get people's best guess on what Erdogan's long term plans are. Does he want Turkey to be hegemon of a large swath of Sunni Islamist states, and could IS have a role there? Or is he just using IS to get to the Kurds so he can clean them up later, and turn back to enriching his country doing good secular business with the EU, Atatürk style? – John Woo Oct 15 '14 at 09:03
  • I'm not convinced that "foreign Jihadists are moving unhindered through Turkey". What's your sources? – yannis Oct 15 '14 at 11:21
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    @YannisRizos You don't need to back up stuff that is plastered across the media landscape. Random article here: http://www.voanews.com/content/turkey-struggles-to-block-flow-of-jihadists/2438999.html – John Woo Oct 15 '14 at 11:45
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    Is there a good reason for the downvote? Erdogan's Turkey isn't doing a lot about ISIS, and I am looking for educated guesses around his motivations. Legitimate enough for you? – John Woo Oct 15 '14 at 11:46
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    @lateral fractal I am starting to get seriously offended by the repeated slandering if Lizard people – user4012 Oct 15 '14 at 12:32
  • @DVK Some of my best friends are Lizard people. – LateralFractal Oct 15 '14 at 12:34
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    I also don't seem to be the only one wondering about Turkey: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/10/15/whose-side-is-turkey-on.html – John Woo Oct 15 '14 at 13:04
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    @YannisRizos Here's a particularly damning one, since apparently IS fighters got treatment in Turkish hospitals, while Kurds were left to die at the border. http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/10/14/a-missing-ally-against-isis/turkey-could-focus-on-isis-within-its-own-borders – John Woo Oct 15 '14 at 14:07

2 Answers2

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I can't say if they are supporting them but they have some common interest.

First, I need to say that states, unlike individuals like you and me, do not have feelings. They have a strategy (usually) and they stick to it. Ethics is not very important. Turkey is simply doing what they think is in their best interests. Their interest is simply self preservation.

My first thought was that ISIS was a threat to Turkey and that they should do something about it. Apparently it isn't. This might change in the future, but for now, the Kurds are more threatening than ISIS for Turkey. There is between 15 to 20% of Kurds in Turkey. Kurds are also a minority in Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Despite the large number of Kurds in the region, they don't have a country. Some groups like the PKK are considered enemies of the Turkish government because they want an independent Kurdistan. Not all Kurdish movements are violent but this uses violence.

South of the Turkish border, there is now an independent Kurdistan in Iraq and Syria (defacto). They are not recognized as independent but Syria and Iraq can't do anything about it right now, so they are considered independent for now. Turkey does not like that. They don't want to have Kurds going south to secure that Kurdish state. They want to avoid doing something that might make the Kurds more threatening inside their own borders or outside.

As for the oil, all countries need oil. Some will buy it from IS like we buy our oil from Saudi Arabia and most of us don't really feel bad about it. Some people are comparing Saudi Arabia to the Islamic state. Saudi Arabian applies a strict sharia that gives very little rights to women. They had several executions in the last weeks. Granted, they don't kill as many people as IS but they act the same way. We consider some countries as allies and some as enemies according to our interests.

To sum it up, no they are not sympathizer of the Islamic State. They are mostly neutral toward them.

Vincent
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    I think you are making a logical error; your assumption that states never have a normative process that goes beyond self preservation does not prove that this is true for Turkey. I for one would disagree; things like national identity and history are strong forces and place strong limits on what states can and cannot do strategically, and even on what they want to do. This is the point of the question: What does Erdogan want? Does he want to create a Sunni Theocracy and have IS as an ally, or is he simply using IS to get the Kurds so he can clean them up later? – John Woo Oct 15 '14 at 08:57
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    Turkey gave access to its airspace and bases to the US forces fighting IS. You might say that they aren't doing everything they can, but you can't say they aren't doing anything at all. – yannis Oct 15 '14 at 11:10
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    @YannisRizos I don't know about the airspace, but Turkey certainly did not give access to its bases. Susan Rice claimed that, but Turkey promptly denied. – John Woo Oct 15 '14 at 12:43
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    I don't think that Erdogan wants to create a religious state and I'm not sure why you think this could happen. – Vincent Oct 15 '14 at 14:45
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    @Vincent Because of his increasing authoritarianism, his courting of literalist religious voters, the suspicious failure to keep the border closed to IS militants while successfully keeping out the Kurds, the low priority placed on fighting IS even after the hostage exchange was complete, the lack of a crackdown on IS oil sales, the rolling back of Atatürk era secular policy, his reorientation towards the middle east and away from the EU, and rumors that he might envision himself as the restorer of the Ottoman caliphate. So why do you think this is so far fetched as to dismiss it out of hand? – John Woo Oct 22 '14 at 13:22
  • @JohnWoo Because you are mixing very different things. The last point is the only one that would be directly really relevant but it's a rumor and the kind of silly things you would expect to hear from some quarters no matter what. Increased authoritarianism and conservatism certainly seem true but not specifically evidence that Erdogan wants to create a theocracy, let alone that he could. – Relaxed Oct 23 '14 at 10:05
  • The rest is foreign politics as usual (which was Vincent's point), it's certainly plausible that Turkey sees IS as useful or less threatening than the Kurds without this implying anything one way or the other regarding Erdogan's intents for Turkey itself. – Relaxed Oct 23 '14 at 10:07
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    @Relaxed The aggregate is not irrelevant, it shows that Turkey is shockingly cozy with ISIS. It's not silly to consider Erdogan is an Islamist, merely to conclude prematurely. I'm looking for some insight into Turkey's long term strategic goals, of which ISIS seems to be a part of (you don't let the World's most wanted terrorists frolic on your soil for tactics). Platitudes like "Business as usual" and "countries don't have feelings" are great at making you look like an aloof expert, but how about actually sharing the reasoning in detail? If Erdogan is clearly no Islamist, why not? – John Woo Oct 23 '14 at 11:37
  • @JohnWoo But the point is that there is nothing “shocking” about that. You're assuming any proximity with ISIS must reveal something deep about Turkey, its elite or ideology but it isn't so. I have no problem imagining a secular state supporting them covertly if it serves some purpose. Countless have done similar things in other situations before. ISIS is just a player among others. – Relaxed Oct 23 '14 at 11:57
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    @Relaxed okay this is feeling weird but I think your and Vincent s point is starting to sink in. But doesn't it matter that ISIS propaganda mentioned a black flag over Ankara and Washington? The other rebels just want Syria. And do you think they would still be "just another player" to Turkey if they were equally militant and globally oriented Shiites, Druze, Christians, Jews, or Atheists? – John Woo Oct 23 '14 at 15:09
  • @JohnWoo [This article] says that Turkey has agreed to let some of the Kurdish forces to pass into their territory to defend Kobani. Iraqi Kurds are welcome but not the P.K.K. Apparently, they are in good terms with Turkey.

    Black flag over Ankara: that was surely not Turkish propaganda.

     – Vincent Oct 23 '14 at 15:27
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    @Vincent: Yeah the corridor came about after I asked the question. The Ankara black flag was (as written) ISIS propaganda, not Turkish propaganda, and my assumption that ISIS is universally considered unlike any other player was this first-the-levant-then-the-world rhetoric. Doesn't this matter to Turkey? – John Woo Oct 23 '14 at 15:34
  • @JohnWoo It should IMHO. – Vincent Oct 23 '14 at 15:35
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According to the Soufan Group, Turkey has in fact up until the recent attack on Sucuk tolerated rather than supported the Islamic state, by keeping their borders open to IS reinforcements and recruits, turning a blind eye towards IS recruitment activity within Turkey, and allowing the sale of IS oil, and preventing the U.S. from attacking them from their air bases.

The reasons are (a) the belief that IS would not attack within Turkey because Turkey is mainly Sunni, and (b) that they were useful for fighting Bashar al Assad's Alawite (on offshoot of Shia) regime.

Interpreting this information myself, hurting the Kurds appears to have been more a desirable side effect rather than the main reason for helping IS. Turkey's fear of Assad would suggest their main worry is Shia influence, and, to that effect, Iran.

This strategy now imploded, as IS mainly fought other rebels in Syria, and now Turkey itself.

John Woo
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    Interesting link which I already posted twice on this side. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-l-phillips/research-paper-isis-turke_b_6128950.html – Noor Feb 08 '16 at 16:50