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In 2024, I am projecting the Democrat to win approximately 52.8% of the popular vote. However, I’m not sure about the Electoral College. If that number is true, I expect it to be concentrated in urban and to a lesser extent suburban areas while the Republican candidate is spread out, like the 2016 and 2012 elections. Winning the popular vote while losing the electoral college is called an electoral college inversion, and given that number, how likely would that be?

Note: the original predicted 53.05%, but this is adjusted for Republican enthusiasm. The webpage containing the image is: How Will Racial Minorities Shape Future Elections?.

JJJ
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Number File
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  • Questions asking for ... predictions for future events are off-topic, because answers would be based on speculation and their correctness could not be verified with sources available to the public. Is there any way you could rephrase the question to make it on-topic? – Rick Smith Nov 26 '19 at 13:47
  • The predictions are based on voting patterns among groups of people and how the portions of their populations will change. The link is here: https://d2e70e9yced57e.cloudfront.net/wallethub/posts/28065/projected-party-winner-of-future-elections-based.gif – Number File Nov 26 '19 at 13:50
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    Your projections have, in every year, both Republican and Democratic candidates receiving greater than 50% of the popular vote. That is somewhat unlikely. – Just Me Nov 26 '19 at 14:01
  • The 1st column is using 2004 data. The second used 2012 data. The 2012 is both more recent and more favorable. – Number File Nov 26 '19 at 14:08
  • That doesn't mean anything. The candidates were not the same in 2012 as they were in 2024 and the 2012 candidate actually lost support from his 2008 run. That said the pendulum swing is generally consistent. – hszmv Nov 26 '19 at 14:17
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    I'm not sure there's a direct correlation between popular vote (which includes turnout in California) and chances to win. Really the election comes down to several key swing states like: Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania... Look at the polling in those states. – SurpriseDog Nov 26 '19 at 14:23
  • @RickSmith You do realize there's publicly available academic research on this very topic based on historical trends right? https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266218904_Election_Inversions_by_the_US_Electoral_College – SurpriseDog Nov 26 '19 at 14:58
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    I'm curious how did you project and find that number?! I mean people in D.C. have no idea what's gonna happen tomorrow and you are saying that you calculated the chance of Dems to win 2024 presidential election?! – Mithridates the Great Nov 26 '19 at 15:39
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    @AloneProgrammer Its worse than that. The included gif shows projections out to 2060! with the same party winning every election of course. Let's just say that I am very dubious. - I've learned in life to never take a set of assumptions and try to project them out to the future year over year. That never works well for anyone. – SurpriseDog Nov 26 '19 at 16:46
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    Relying on the math to continue forever, makes the very wrong assumption that civilization is made of groups blindly making the same choices over and over again. In reality these groups are intelligent actors that can see the same predictions of the future you can and are strategizing to change the course of that future. Not to mention the unexpected turns of history. – SurpriseDog Nov 26 '19 at 16:52
  • @AloneProgrammer - The .GIF is located on this page: How Will Racial Minorities Shape Future Elections? – Rick Smith Nov 26 '19 at 18:40

2 Answers2

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How likely is it for a Democrat to win the Presidency if he/she gets 52.8% of the (popular) vote?

This article from Vox suggests a Republican advantage of 16% at a 3.0 point margin, so nearly an 84% chance for a Democrat to win at 52.8%

The astounding advantage the Electoral College gives to Republicans, in one chart, Sep 17, 2019.

In close elections, Republicans are favored to win even when they lose the popular vote.

In modern elections where one party prevails by just 2 points in the two-party popular vote, “inversions are expected in more than 30% of elections.” That number rises to 40 percent in elections with a 1 percentage-point margin.

Republicans, moreover, are far more likely to benefit from an inversion than Democrats. “In the modern period,” the study suggests, “Republicans should be expected to win 65% of Presidential contests in which they narrowly lose the popular vote.”

This Republican advantage can shift elections where the Democrat was a fairly clear winner in the popular vote. “A 3.0 point margin favoring the Democrat,” the study concludes, “is associated with a 16% inversion probability.” In other words, Republicans will win nearly one in six presidential races where they lose the popular vote by 3 points.

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Rick Smith
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  • Thanks. That is a good valid sourced answer. 84% chance if adjusted model is correct. – Number File Nov 26 '19 at 15:02
  • However 10% was projected for Trump victory with such a loss. And, he won. So, it is realistic to say a Republican could win in 2024 if that person gets the vote out in key states with such a margin. – Number File Nov 26 '19 at 15:44
  • @NumberFile: Even if the chance of winning is 1%, that still means it can happen. That's literally what a non-zero probability means. – MSalters Nov 29 '19 at 17:31
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Nate Silver gives the odds of an electoral-popular vote split at less than 12% if there's a popular vote margin of greater than 2% based on the research of Nicholas R. Miller.

  • there’s about a 25 percent chance of a split if the national popular vote is decided by about 1 percentage point, and that the chance is cut in half when the margin is 2 percentage points.

Of course, this article was written in May of 2016, so we all know how well that prediction turned out.

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    I could be wrong, but I believe you that the 2016 was the only time the popular vote winner won by 2% but lost the Electoral College. NPR gives the hypothetical lowest vote possible at 23% of the Popular vote to win the Electoral College, though this is on paper. In reality, you might have a better chance of winning the lottery, while getting mauled by a shark, during an alignment of all planets including Pluto. – hszmv Nov 26 '19 at 14:46
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    As Nate Silver himself would probably point out, something with a 12% chance of happening still happens about one time out of eight. – Michael Seifert Nov 26 '19 at 18:44
  • @MichaelSeifert Not only 12% - How about (literal) coin flip odds happening 14 times in a row? That's 1 in 16,000 odds but it happens, repeatedly and publicly. 12 That's why when a scientific study comes out with p=0.05 (1 in 20) and the media jumps all over it, I don't. I wait for confirmation. – SurpriseDog Nov 26 '19 at 23:34