2

What is the factual basis for Guaido and his supporters' claim that Maduro's election as president is not valid?

JJJ
  • 39,094
  • 10
  • 121
  • 182
Jerry Taylor
  • 29
  • 1

1 Answers1

-1

It's not that the actual election procedure was problematic, it's that political opponents of Maduro were jailed, or have fled the country. In those circumstances, you could not call the 2018 Venezuelan elections free or fair.

However, this is not an uncommon practice in Latin America, the middle east or so Asia. In Brazil, Lula De Silva, a massively popular pink tide, progressive politician was jailed and prevented from running for president last year too. America, Canada, the EU etc turned a blind eye to this. Based on polls, Lula would have won the 2018 election by a landslide,instead, Bolsonaro was elected, and I hope we're all aware of his record regarding political opponents, indigenous people, the environment, the lgbt community etc. So while Maduro cannot claim to have won free and fair elections, nor can Bolsonaro. The reasons why Venezuela is being targeted for regime change and not Brazil should be obvious to all.

You also have to take into context the long history of American backed coups and regime change war efforts in Latin America, always in support of far right extremists and dictators who are open to privatization of state resources by American multinationals, and the fact that Venezuela has already weathered such coup attempts, even a drone assassination attempt. I'm not saying that this excuses arresting political opponents, but it should be presented as a part of the context at the very least, if we're not to present a disingenuous, one side argument.

Icarian
  • 3,515
  • 3
  • 15
  • 21
  • 1
    Misses out a lot, most importantly the supreme court stacking and subsequent 'disqualification' of the national Assembly, and the fact Maduro has not been sworn in as required by the Venezuelan constitution. The downvote is for the conspiracy thworism going on with the Brazil segue, which also ignores the fact the situations are very different such as on a 'the country is collapsing' level. –  Mar 02 '19 at 20:29
  • The history of the US often supporting far-right dictators is true, but if you're trying to apply it to Guaidó it falls a bit short. So far as I can tell Guaidó is best described as a social democrat in the European mold. His party, Voluntad Popular, is known for radical right wing policies like supporting LBGT rights and wanting to tax large oil corporations and devote the money in a solidarity fund. If he becomes a dictator instead of, or even after, holding free elections (hopefully he won't), he probably wouldn't accurately be described as a far-right extremist. – Obie 2.0 Mar 02 '19 at 22:12
  • Further, while Trump's motives for supporting Guaidó over Maduro are indeed far from benevolent (though they seem to have much to do with trying to get a political boost heading into 2020), the situation in Brazil differs in several not-irrelevant ways. – Obie 2.0 Mar 02 '19 at 22:18
  • First, barring a candidate from running as Lula was, to say nothing of a major one, is a grave offense against democracy. However, so far as I can tell, Bolsonaro wasn't behind it, but rather took advantage of it. By contrast, Maduro has used imprisonment and the concomitant electoral disqualification as a tool to ensure he retains power, making it a much more dictatorial action. None of this should minimize the threat posed by Bolsonaro, though: with Brazil's history of dictatorship, and his open admiration for it, he stands a high chance of turning into a dictator perhaps worse than Maduro. – Obie 2.0 Mar 02 '19 at 22:24
  • Second, Maduro has gone further than mere imprisonment, including disqualifying whole parties, which would be more like barring Haddad from running as well. He's also engaged in the sort of election schemes that Bolsonaro simply didn't have the opportunity to do, as well as exercising rigid media control and numerous extrajudicial killings. There's evidence that Bolsonaro is headed in this direction, such as the suspicious murder of the activist Marielle Franco, but he's not there yet. – Obie 2.0 Mar 02 '19 at 22:30
  • Finally, the state of the county and the president's support has to be considered. Maduro's approval rating is way down from its post-Chavez highs, perhaps as low as 15%. Bolsonaro's is in the 60s, perhaps somewhat lower. This is likely a matter of economics. Brazil's economy is doing well, although Bolsonaro is likely not mostly responsible. Venezuela's is doing very poorly, and Maduro is largely responsible. While Bolsonaro could easily ruin Brazil in the future (he's already started) and lose the support of the populace, that hadn't happened yet. – Obie 2.0 Mar 02 '19 at 22:38
  • All of this means that at the current time, Maduro is far more dictatorial and far more non-democratically in power than Bolsonaro, such that there's a decent argument for calling for him to be ousted and not Bolsonaro (besides which it's far more practical - Bolsonaro will not step down, and can't be ousted non-militarily with so much support). But that's only for the moment...the odds are high that Bolsonaro will become what he obviously wants to be, an effective dictator like Maduro, during his term. Though he might become a popular dictator a la Putin, and thus hard to dislodge. – Obie 2.0 Mar 02 '19 at 22:44
  • And as far as the drone attempt, while I can't rule out the possibility that the US might have been behind it somehow, an incredible number of groups and individuals, mostly without clear US ties, have claimed responsibility. Although it could have been the US, Colombia, or other enemies of Maduro, I'm inclined to think it was probably a domestic assassination attempt. At least, it's disingenuous to present it as clearly being the US behind it. – Obie 2.0 Mar 02 '19 at 22:48