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Just looking at the TV and I am seeing that the British Parliament rejected the Brexit deal (cannot find an online source yet for this, although multiple sources show this vote result as very plausible).

Does this mean that Brexit is not going to happen or is this only one of the possible scenarios in the near future?

An answer to this question is interesting especially when the UK can legally cancel the Brexit process.

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Alexei
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    I've voted to close this as off-topic because you're asking about the broad spectrum of future events that may fall out from the vote on the plan. There branch cases for what could now happen with brexit are multitudinous. – Drunk Cynic Jan 15 '19 at 19:55
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    @DrunkCynic - I am asking if Parliament's decision involves (logically / legally) that Brexit is not going to happen or there are many other possibilities. Your comment suggests that the answer to my question is: no, this does not mean that Brexit process is automatically cancelled. – Alexei Jan 15 '19 at 19:58
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    @DrunkCynic The core of the question is whether the Parliament vote concerns the terms of the deal or the Brexit itself, which makes it pretty narrow and definitely answerable. – Dmitry Grigoryev Jan 16 '19 at 08:50
  • It seems to me that you are basically asking, "If Britain doesn't approve a Brexit deal, does Brexit still occur?" Is that what you intended to ask? – jpmc26 Jan 16 '19 at 09:30
  • Do you perhaps mean "imply" instead of "involve"? I don't think the question makes sense given the dictionary definition of involve. – Martijn Heemels Jan 16 '19 at 09:56
  • Sorry if someone else has already linked this. but BBC News wrote a helpful guide. A list of possible outcomes with simple explanations: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399 – AJFaraday Jan 16 '19 at 10:13
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    Let us hope and pray that my definitely-not-a-slave friends across the pond start to understand how much they don't want to undo the progress of World War 2. – Spencer Williams Jan 16 '19 at 16:19
  • @SpencerWilliams World War 2 contained “progress”? Such rhetoric would make me want to get out of any union with Germany very, very fast. – Golden Cuy Jan 16 '19 at 20:53
  • My pet hypothesis is that UK politics will be 99% handwringing over Brexit until whenever EU dissolves so that technically the UK will be in the process of leaving the EU indefinitely and kids in 200 years will read about this in "weird laws" clickbait like those laws that let you legally shoot a Welshman with a longbow in one village somewhere if it's a Sunday and you're wearing red. – millimoose Jan 16 '19 at 23:34
  • @AndrewGrimm "World War 2 contained “progress”?" - Obviously not, everybody just held their breath until it was over. – R. Schmitz Jan 17 '19 at 14:58
  • @R.Schmitz Spencer said "undo the progress of World War 2". – Golden Cuy Jan 17 '19 at 22:50
  • @AndrewGrimm France not becoming part of comintern, France and UK cementing their WW1-based "political friendship", Germany and Italy becoming democratic, laying the ground work for the creation of NATO with the "allies"... Those are just some things off the top of my head, so yeah, there was a lot of political progress. After all, "War is the continuation of politics by other means". – R. Schmitz Jan 18 '19 at 10:19

3 Answers3

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Parliament has already voted on Article 50 and Article 50 has already been invoked. If nothing else happens between now and March 29th, EU membership ends for the UK. That was the case whether this vote took place or not. So that's the simplest answer with what is known to factually and legally be in place at this time. Anything else borders on wild speculation.

ouflak
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  • EU parliament can still push the membership ending to 30th June – Jules R Jan 17 '19 at 15:16
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    I'm fairly certain that such a move would count as something else happening. – ouflak Jan 17 '19 at 15:22
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    Also, I don't think the EU parliament can do so on its own; if anything the UK would have to agree. The only unilateral action available seems to be the UK retracting its Article 50 notice. – MSalters Jan 17 '19 at 17:03
  • Of course, EU parliament would do it on UK requirement, not on its own. – Jules R Jan 18 '19 at 07:59
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No, it does not. Under the European Union (Withdrawal) Act, 2018, the UK will still leave the EU on 29 March at 23:00 GMT. Only a further Act of Parliament to amend it will change this, and as of this writing, there is currently no Bill active in the Commons to do this.

Joe C
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  • It might be worth referring to the specific "meaningful vote" section of the act (section 13) as well. – origimbo Jan 15 '19 at 21:15
  • As far as I can see, Section 13 doesn't make any mention of "exit day". Which would therefore confirm that it doesn't change as a result of this vote. – Joe C Jan 15 '19 at 21:46
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    Indeed. Although it does guarantee there will be an open motion brought by a government minister within 21 days (actually on Monday 21st January [for Reasons]) onto which members of the house will attempt to hang all kinds of interesting amendments. – origimbo Jan 15 '19 at 21:52
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    Yes, though these potential amendments fall outside the scope of this question. They may become relevant to a similar question next week, though, depending on what happens then. – Joe C Jan 15 '19 at 21:55
  • It has, though, been confirmed by the European Court that the UK Government has the right, up to 29th March 2019, unilaterally, to cancel the Article 50 notification. My understanding is that this would not require an Act of Parliament. The Government can also negotiate with the EU to defer the date of departure. – WS2 Jan 16 '19 at 20:42
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    @WS2 It would require the Withdrawal Act to be repealed, which would be by means of a European Union (Withdrawal) (Repeal) Act. – Andrew Leach Jan 17 '19 at 21:22
  • That is correct. The EU's ruling stated that any repeal of Article 50 is subject to the individual member state's constitutional requirements. In the case of the UK, it would require the European Union (Withdrawal) Act to be either repealed or amended. – Joe C Jan 17 '19 at 21:27
  • @AndrewLeach But I take the same view as Tony Blair did on the Today programme this morning. Article 50 will be extended to accommodate the exclusion of "no deal". The pound tonight is trading at Euros 1.140. And that can only be because Philip Hammond and Mark Carney are assuring the currency markets that there will be no no-deal. If no-deal became a reality the pound as well as Sterling debt would be dumped across the world. – WS2 Jan 17 '19 at 22:33
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    @WS2 There is a place for arguing in favour of an Article 50 extension and against no-deal, but this question is not it. Legally, even an extension would require amending the European Union (Withdrawal) Act, as it specifies the date and time of departure. – Joe C Jan 17 '19 at 22:35
  • @JoeC I'm not arguing for it. I am providing evidence as to why "no-deal" is very unlikely to happen. When 580 out of 650 MPs as well as the EU reject "no-deal", I see no conceivable way that it can take place. – WS2 Jan 17 '19 at 22:40
  • @WS2 In that case, seeing as it is not related to my answer, you should post it as an answer in its own right. – Joe C Jan 17 '19 at 22:42
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Assuming a government can be formed after tomorrow's vote of no confidence or the vote fails: Under the recent amendment controversially allowed by the speaker, the prime minister will be required to go back to the house with a new plan or plans for consideration. With that said the PM may still try to continue with a version of the current arrangement.

The following options exist

  • No agreement will be reached and the UK will leave the EU on the 29th of March. Note this is currently the default position.
  • Brexit is delayed until a deal can be reached that parliament can agree on (or for as long as the EU will allow it if they will at all).
  • Parliament will pass a bill to withdraw Article 50 and the UK will remain in the EU (IMO it seems like this might happen so that brexit can be retried with more proper understanding of what is possible, etc.)
  • Parliament will eventually agree to the current deal (given the scale of the defeat this may be unlikely)

In order to reach one of the above, there may well be a referendum either considering no deal brexit v the current deal, or no deal brexit v the current deal v remain. There may also be a general election if the vote of no confidence is successful.

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Steve Smith
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