Questions tagged [probability]
280 questions
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Isn’t everything absurdly improbable?
Isn’t every event by definition improbable in the sense that each event precedes an infinite series of causes that could have (theoretically atleast) been different?
We think of someone winning five lotteries as extremely improbable and a rare…
user62907
10
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Is all of probability fundamentally subjective and unneeded as a term outright?
What is the real probability that a person will be murdered tomorrow somewhere in the world? It seems like there should be a right answer to this. In fact, most of us would bet tens of millions of dollars that atleast one person will be murdered…
user62907
10
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3 answers
What justifies probability in the case of a onetime experiment?
If I have an "experiment", the results of which can be classified clearly into "outcomes" (like rolling a die), then I can make a concrete and verifiable empirical claim that "if you repeat this experiment many times, the frequency of this outcome…
Jack M
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What is the probability difference of an event that has one chance vs. multiple chances to happen?
For example, what is the probability that John will land a coin on heads two times in a row on Tuesday if he only gets to do two tosses? Clearly it’s 1/4.
Now, what is the probability that we will ever have a rock form naturally be shaped exactly in…
Baby_philosopher
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Why is probability used to make decisions?
If I am offered two bets to choose one from, and either wins $100 or losses $100, I would want to know the chances of winning in order to decide which one to pick. For example, if one bet has a 90% chance of winning, and the other has a 30% chance…
Legendre
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How can one make sense of the gambler’s fallacy if probability is ill defined?
The gambler’s fallacy suggests that in the cases of independent events such as coin tosses, the next coin toss’s probability does not depend upon previous ones.
…but there are different definitions and interpretations of probability. If you go the…
user62907
3
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2 answers
How do we know if something is generated from a random process?
Suppose a machine outputs a digit between 1 - 9 over and over. You try to figure out if it's random. The most natural definition of random seems to be that it exhibits no pattern. You simply look at the data, check whether there's some pattern…
user62907
3
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5 answers
Are there probability distributions that are analytically derived?
Consider the simplest example, flipping a coin. Is the relationship between the symmetry of the coin and the 50-50 probability synthetic or analytic?
asmani
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Can we fully expunge the notion of probability from philosophy?
Can one reason about things without involving this concept altogether? Although the answer to this is trivially yes since the theory came about only 400 years ago, my question is moreso whether one loses anything by expunging this concept…
user62907
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How improbable does an event have to be before we can say it didn't happen by chance?
What is the probability threshold below which we can confidently say that a blind process did not create the supposed event?
For example, how many heads in a row would we need to say that it did not happen by chance. Keep in mind when I say "did not…
user62907
2
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1 answer
Frequentist notion of probability
The or rather one of the Frequentist interpretations of probability claims that the statement "The next coin toss )that is executed under conditions X) has a probability of 90% to land heads" simply means: "The next coin toss belongs to an infinite…
Sebastian
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Wondering about Probabilities
I'm wondering the existence of probabilities in general, either in maths ou other.
①➡ I have three balls(1, 2 and 3) inside a bag, and I close the bag. I mix the balls and I take one out. How do I know which one I grab before I pull it out? I had…
Inês Barata Feio Borges
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Is there a scientific real world content in probability beyond the math' theory of probablility?
To clarify what I am asking, it is best to make an analogy with another mathematical discipline: geometry.
In old days there was no clear separation between mathematics and real world science e.g. physics. On the other hand, euclidian geometry was…
Ulysse Keller
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Is it valid to consider previous trials when deciding whether a rare event occurred by chance?
Is it valid to consider a rare event more likely to have been produced by chance if previous trials exist?
Suppose John tosses a coin and thinks his mind can cause it to land on heads. He tosses the coin and it lands on heads 10 straight times.…
user62907
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3 answers
Do previous trials of a chance driven process affect whether or not the current trial was intentional?
Suppose 500,000 lotteries were played before yesterday. Yesterday, Jane played the lottery and won. Today, she played the lottery and won again.
Person A, let's call him the conspiracy theorist, might say: "This is incredible. How did she win two…
user62907