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The modern way to get to Bayes' theorem is through conditional probability. How did Bayes get to it? I've read, with crossed eyes, his 1763 paper and I cannot see conditional probability or his theorem in any recognizable form. Price's appendix comes nearly there. Is it implied and I just can't see it? Or worse still, it is explicit and I can't see it. (I'm not even going to try Laplace.)

TonyK
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    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Essay_towards_solving_a_Problem_in_the_Doctrine_of_Chances#Outline gives a kind of answer, I think. – kimchi lover Jul 08 '23 at 12:03
  • @kimchilover: Thanks, this was helpful. At least it pointed me at a few things to reread. – TonyK Jul 09 '23 at 21:45

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