The essential difference is:
The perfect tense defines a time space between Now and Thursday, and then states that the main action will complete before the end of the period. Whether this finish time of the period and hence the painting includes part of Thursday is not defined, so the painter could still be painting on Thursday morning. It also does not define anything about whether then painting will be done in one long chunk or in stages, it is only the conclusion of the action before the finish that is important.
The simple tense merely states that the action will take place, and then states that this period starts Now (will) and completes sometime on Thursday (until), with the proviso that 'until' implies that the poor painter will continue painting 24 hours a day.