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Is there a non-vulgar version of “pulled it out of their ass” ? It's a useful phrase, but not one to be used in professional environments.

For example:

There is no way John’s projections for next year’s sales are accurate. He ____.

tchrist
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Roone Scape
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Pulled it out of thin air works well. It keeps the pulled which reminds people of the phrase you're avoiding, while out of thin air means from nothing. A (probably older) variation is plucked out of thin air.

You also hear pulled it out of their rear end/backside but I guess these versions don't really help much.

Chris H
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    I've also heard the term "Pulled it out of their hat" – Gogeta70 Jan 16 '18 at 17:16
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    I've heard plucked out of thin air. – Joshua Jan 16 '18 at 22:02
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    As for versions which don't help much, I have a strong preference for "rectally derived," especially when used for numbers or analysis. – Cort Ammon Jan 17 '18 at 23:13
  • I have actually used the phrase "he pulled it out of his thin air" to great effect. People think you're going with the vulgar form but then you pull the punch at the last second. You get the effect of the vulgarity without actually using it. Especially useful if you're trying to emphasize just how woo Johns projections are. – Binary Worrier Jan 18 '18 at 12:18
  • @Gogeta70 I'd interpret that more as having pulled something off. Maybe I'm just really off-base here. – Muzer Jan 18 '18 at 17:08
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    @Gogeta70 To me, "pulled it out of their hat" implies that they had some preplanned thing waiting behind the scenes. "Out of thin air" or the original vulgar version implies conjuring it in the heat of the moment. – Dan Jan 18 '18 at 17:20
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    Along the lines of 'rectally derived' there's also WAG. However, "Wild @$$ Guess" is unacceptable in some environments. – AlG Jan 19 '18 at 15:16
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For a usage that implies that something (an object or idea, etc.) appeared from nowhere, you could say, "He pulled it out of thin air."

On the other hand, if what you want is a usage meaning that they are "bullshitting" (as in making something up), then you could say, "He fabricated it out of whole cloth."

Geoffrey
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    Is that a BE only phrase? – SonOfPingu Jan 16 '18 at 07:18
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    @SonOfPingu I'm a full-blooded American, and I use both of these phrases fairly regularly. – Geoffrey Jan 16 '18 at 07:25
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    Good to know. I've never heard it before. Regional perhaps? – SonOfPingu Jan 16 '18 at 09:15
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    never heard "He fabricated it out of whole cloth" – minseong Jan 16 '18 at 11:58
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    Whole cloth is a phase that is a little aged, but certainly fits an academic or professional situation – Dent7777 Jan 16 '18 at 17:39
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    I think "made" is more common than "fabricated." – jpmc26 Jan 16 '18 at 22:37
  • Either "made" or "fabricated" is fine, as long as it's "out of whole cloth"--that's a typical way to express this idea in academic writing. – David K Jan 17 '18 at 00:01
  • Bother - I missed this entry for Whole Cloth and created another. Best to limit yourself to one main idea per answer, but make multiple answers. That way each answer can be up/down voted on its own merits and not be tied to another answer. – Criggie Jan 18 '18 at 00:42
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    @Criggie Yeah, initially it was just out of thin ait, but i editted it to include whole cloth because I wasn't sure what meaning he was looking for since "pulling something out of your ass" can mean two different things depending on the circumstance. It's probably part of the reason that mine didn't get as upvoted as much as Chris' despite bing submitted before his. – Geoffrey Jan 18 '18 at 01:31
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"Pulled it out of their hat" - English usage, common. Says exactly the same thing but less offensively. Tone of speech does that for you - the more dripping with sarcasm and disbelief, the better. Add a raised eye brow smirk for full flavour.

user276543
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    To me that means "surprisingly pulled it off/succeeded". In a similar phrase to "he pulled it out of the bag". Whereas I get the feeling OP was asking for something meaning "he made it up/it was a lie". –  Jan 16 '18 at 11:57
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    I'd agree with @Bilkokuya, "pulled it out of their hat" has more a feeling of "ace in the hole" to me than got through on bluster – anotherdave Jan 16 '18 at 19:51
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    Would also agree with @Bilkokuya - I wonder if there's some confusion with 'talking through their hat', to talk about something with no real understanding of the subject matter. To pull it out of the hat (in UK English) would be to 'produce something surprising and unexpected that helps you succeed' (see, e.g. Collins UK.) – Withnail Jan 17 '18 at 11:01
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    Agreed with the other comments, this means surprisingly pulled it off and succeeded (think a magician pulling a rabbit out of their hat) and this is even demonstrated by the more dripping with sarcasm and disbelief, the better advice. If it's sarcastic, it's not what the question is asking for. – Josh Jan 17 '18 at 20:34
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    I've seen "pulled it out of a hat" many times to mean exactly what is asked by the OP. I saw a mathoverflow answer the other day that referred to this as the "Stetson Harrison method"[see (1)] As for sarcasm, either term (hat or arse) can be used sarcastically, or not. The various contexts (such as a "surprising victory") in this answer/comments are suited by either phrase. Perhaps some are thinking of "hat trick"? [ref 1]: https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Stetson-Harrison%20methodhttps://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Stetson-Harrison%20method – Darren Ringer Jan 17 '18 at 21:40
  • This saying might be a minced down version of the original. I mean, I always thought the hat must have been up their ass... since that's where you'd locate their head... Anyway, the "thin air" version might be the cleanest. – zahbaz Jan 18 '18 at 08:14
  • @DarrenRinger You might have a circular argument there. I think you actually saw my answer to this question yesterday, regarding the Stetson method. – pipe Jan 18 '18 at 12:16
  • @pipe It was on mathoverflow (Google yields multiple results on this domain containing the phrase "Stetson Harrison method": https://www.google.com/search?ei=_KVgWuSDIpHusQW7h77YBQ&q=%22stetson+harrison%22+site%3AStackexchange.com&oq=%22stetson+harrison%22+site%3AStackexchange.com&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3254.5407.0.5525.18.18.0.0.0.0.113.1517.13j4.17.0....0...1c.1.64.psy-ab..5.0.0....0.ar5WfmqKR4U), and the link I posted previously was an urbandictionary page from 2007. – Darren Ringer Jan 18 '18 at 13:49
  • @DarrenRinger Ok, I see no results from mathoverflow on that link, which is why I got suspicious. – pipe Jan 18 '18 at 13:53
  • @pipe I don't know this site network as well as I thought: I confused mathoverflow with math.stackexchange.com (where it actually was seen) – Darren Ringer Jan 18 '18 at 13:54
  • I read that phrase as meaning randomly chosen, as "picking things out of a hat" is literally a method used to select something randomly. (Put people's names in a hat and pull one out.) – Stephen R Jan 19 '18 at 16:45
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If you really want to sound professional without anyone knowing that you made everything up you can say:

The data comes from applying the Stetson-Harrison method

From the entry on Urban Dictionary:

Stetson-Harrison method

A general method for estimating various numerical values. The values are pulled out of a hat (Stetson), i.e. made up. The purpose of Harrison is to increase credibility.

I do not know how well known this is outside a nerdy subset of the academic world, but a lot of my friends would know what this means. YMMV.

Community
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pipe
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Johnson's estimates were cut/made from whole cloth.

That's a metaphor dating from when material was more expensive, and it was common for one item of clothing to be recycled into other items once it was worn out.

A tailoring metaphor, in that the suspicious estimates were not based on any pre-existing estimates or numbers. Instead every part was new and unrelated to prior work.

Criggie
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    I had a really hard time understanding how this idiom works until I compared it to "from thin air" which has the same implication: that there was nothing proceeding the creation of the story or claim, no facts to base it on. – Segfault Jan 19 '18 at 00:02
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The following express contempt in varying degree for unsupportable claims, or at least a need for caution.

  • Pure speculation (science).
  • Unsupported optimism (science, engineering).
  • Rainbows and unicorns (politics).
  • Fiction presented as fact (politics).
  • Lies, damned lies, and statistics. (politics - Benjamin Disraeli)

Another variant of "...out of thin air" uses plucked:

...while the underpinning notion is sound (that denser gases increase heat retention) typical climate models have been force-fitted to recorded data with constants and scalars plucked from thin air, and fail to predict even the past...

In this excerpt the meaning is "selected without any scientific basis".

And now, for your entertainment, the inimitable Sir Humphrey Appleby:

Unfortunately, although the answer was indeed clear, simple, and straightforward, there is some difficulty in justifiably assigning to it the fourth of the epithets you applied to the statement, inasmuch as the precise correlation between the information you communicated and the facts, insofar as they can be determined and demonstrated, is such as to cause epistemological problems, of sufficient magnitude as to lay upon the logical and semantic resources of the English language a heavier burden than they can reasonably be expected to bear.

Peter Wone
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Conjured out of thin air. Conjured a solution right there and then.

Or something along those lines.

  • con•jure (ˈkɒn dʒər, ˈkʌn- for 1–5, 8–10, 12; kənˈdʒʊər for 6, 7, 11 )

    v. -jured, -jur•ing, n. v.t.

    1. to affect or influence by or as if by invocation or spell.
    2. to effect or produce by or as if by magic: to conjure a miracle.
    3. to call upon or command (a devil or spirit) by invocation or spell.
    4. to call or bring into existence by or as if by magic (usu. fol. by up).
    5. to bring to mind (usu. fol. by up).
    6. to appeal to or charge solemnly. v.i.
    7. to call upon or command a devil or spirit by invocation or spell.
    8. to practice magic.
    9. to practice legerdemain.

http://www.dictionary.com/browse/conjure

Viktor Mellgren
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I find "making things up" to be (1) more straightforward; and (2) less vulgar.

Compare and contrast.

There is no way John's projections for next year's sales are accurate. He ____ is making them up.

emory
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    Very surprised that this obvious and correct answer hasn't been voted up more. – David Richerby Jan 19 '18 at 13:18
  • @DavidRicherby it should not be surprising at all. the answer is only one day old. the current top voted answers are all about one month old. thus about 30X more people have read them. – emory Jan 19 '18 at 16:10
  • Actually, they're about three days old. But you're right that I was wrongly assuming the answers were all posted at about the same time. Even a couple of days is a significant difference and enough for the usual effect of people voting up the first decent answers they see and then getting bored before they reach the bottom of the page. – David Richerby Jan 19 '18 at 16:17
  • I like this direct method. – Stephen R Jan 19 '18 at 16:46
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    The OP was asking for an equivalent idiom, though, ... admittedly just speak plainly is often a good suggestion to make but in this case there are multiple idiomatic equivalents. – Will Crawford Jan 20 '18 at 01:19
  • @WillCrawford The question says nothing about idiom. It's tagged idiom but that's to help people who might be searching, and the phrase "pull something out of your ass" is idiom. If the asker wanted an equivalent idiom, they should have asked for that, not for "a non-vulgar version". – David Richerby Jan 20 '18 at 12:10
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    I presumed that they wanted an equivalent but non-vulgar phrase, and that would be pulled out of a hat** :) – Will Crawford Jan 23 '18 at 18:32
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    Perhaps *just making them up* is better then. – Will Crawford Jan 23 '18 at 18:34
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Slightly more polite, but conveying the same meaning: rectally generated

Chris Cudmore
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"I wonder where they pulled that from.", or "Where did you pull that from?".

If asked to explain exactly what you mean you can reply with:

"I wonder where they bought that from.", "Where did you buy that from?", or "I don't buy (sh)it.". You can also suggest that they should return it.

Rob
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1.There is no way John's projections for next year's sales are accurate. He materialized them.

When Mrs. Bell fell ill, the Bell Witch caused a bunch of grapes to materialize out of thin air for her to eat. (Poltergeists: and Other Hauntings by Nigel Cawthorne, Rupert Matthews)

2.There is no way John's projections for next year's sales are accurate. He invented them.

(Oxford Living Dictionaries) verb 1.1 Make up (an idea, name, story, etc.), especially so as to deceive someone.

Origin: Late 15th century (in the sense ‘find out, discover’): from Latin invent- ‘contrived, discovered’, from the verb invenire, from in- ‘into’ + venire ‘come’.

Bread
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You can use Out of left field for a nonbiological formulation

asrgarga
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    Perhaps you should add that this phrase is primarily used in American English. It is also less well known because of its origins from baseball terminology and is not an accurate substitution here as out of left field usually carries a more "unexpected" meaning to it instead of "made up", which is what OP is asking for here. – HsMjstyMstdn Jan 16 '18 at 15:39
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    Doesn't really mean the same thing. "Out of left field" refers to something unexpected and strange, not to something you made up. – Kevin Jan 17 '18 at 03:58
  • @HsMjstyMstdn It's well-enough understood in British English. We know what it means, even though we've no clue why it means that. – David Richerby Jan 19 '18 at 13:21