Will or would when making a predictiction

Question

When we're making a prediction, I think both "will" or "would" are interchangeable. Is there a difference between them both when it comes to making a prediction? I'm confused because both will and would are talking about a possibility. So the choice is difficult. My understanding about "will" is that a win for United is seen as a real possibility and that "would" is seen as unreal possibility (hypothetitcal).

Good afternoon and welcome to Sports Mole's live commentary of the Premier League encounter between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Manchester United. The clash is crucial at both ends of the table, with Wolves currently sitting in the bottom three, while victory for United will/would move Sir Alex Ferguson's side four points clear of Manchester City at the summit.

Does this answer your question? Difference between "will" and "would" for predictions — Kate Bunting, Oct 27 '23 at 08:01
Yes. Will assumes that United will win, would speaks of 'if they win'. — Kate Bunting, Oct 27 '23 at 08:03
@KateBunting But how do we know any degree of the certainty into the win. This is talked before the game, so we don't know for sure the final result. — Nyambek, Oct 27 '23 at 08:19
As I said, you could use will if you were super-confident of the result! — Kate Bunting, Oct 27 '23 at 09:17
Yes, that's right. But without context, it would be difficult for me how I see the situation. As I have said, this is said before the game kicks off. If the game is going on and the side go 3-0 up in the 89 minutes, and I think the opossing team are diffiucult to score. I would then say "a win for United will put them ...." — Nyambek, Oct 27 '23 at 10:38

TimR on some device · Answer 1 · 2023-10-27T14:53:03.523

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This is not a prediction:

The clash is crucial at both ends of the table, with Wolves currently sitting in the bottom three, while victory for United will move Sir Alex Ferguson's side four points clear of Manchester City at the summit.

It states what the effect of a victory for United will be; implicit in the utterance is the notion "should that happen".

Here, the notion of "should that happen" is made explicit:

The clash is crucial at both ends of the table, with Wolves currently sitting in the bottom three, while victory for United would move Sir Alex Ferguson's side four points clear of Manchester City at the summit.

When speaking of the future using will in such a context, no reasonable person would assume you're predicting the future, as the semantic focus of the utterance is on the implications of victory for United in terms of league standings.

P.S. A speaker might say "a victory will" to make it even clearer that it's not a prediction.

edited Oct 27 '23 at 14:53

answered Oct 27 '23 at 14:47

TimR on some device

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So how does "would" work in that sentence? Is "will" wrong there? – Nyambek Oct 27 '23 at 15:07
Let's say that a team needs only one more victory to win the league championship title. One could say "With one more victory they will win the title." That is not predicting a win but is emphasizing the result that a win would guarantee. That a victory is not a present reality or guaranteed to happen is implicit in the sentence. One could also say "With one more victory they would win the title." That is not predicting a win either. The verb would explicitly acknowledges that it is not a present reality and is only a future possibility. – TimR on some device Oct 27 '23 at 18:35
Both of those sentences are idiomatic. The difference is one of emphasis. – TimR on some device Oct 27 '23 at 18:39
A victory will make them the champions. The indefinite article means that it is not a prediction, whereas the definite article makes it a prediction: The victory will make them the champions. – TimR on some device Oct 27 '23 at 18:41
I'm really confused. In short, "would" is used for a hypothetical situation and "will" is used as a real possibility. Is it right in this case? – Nyambek Oct 28 '23 at 10:10
@Nyambek Both will and would can be used of real possibilities ("A win tomorrow will|would guarantee our team a place in the quarterfinals") and both can be used in hypothetical situations too: Imagine a hot air balloon with a gondola made of lead. Would|will that balloon be able to rise into the sky? No, it will|would stay on the ground! The difference is one of emphasis; it's not that one is "correct" and the other is "incorrect". will emphasizes the factual (lead is very heavy) and would emphasizes the counterfactual (there is no such balloon). – TimR on some device Oct 28 '23 at 10:41
The language is subtler and more expressive than the picture presented in books whose aim is to teach the basics, and whose chapters end with tests with a "right" answer and a "wrong" answer. – TimR on some device Oct 28 '23 at 10:49
So in this case, "will" is better because the situation is real, isn't it? Before the match no one knows who will definitely win. However "would" is also possible in that sentence because we're talking about a hypothetical situation. This makes me puzzled because when imagining a situation, I usually use "would". – Nyambek Oct 29 '23 at 03:13
@Nyambek: If you want to emphasize that it is merely possible, use would. If you want to emphasize the implications if the possibility should turn out to be the actuality, you can use "will", but there's no obligation to do so, and emphasis can be made in other ways. The verb is only one of the players on the team, so to speak. – TimR on some device Oct 29 '23 at 11:51

Will or would when making a predictiction

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