A branch of statistics that studies the likelihood of uncertain events occurring.
Questions tagged [probability]
98 questions
5
votes
2 answers
Conditional probability in Kaplan, Menzio (2014)
This is question about Kaplan and Menzio's shopping time model.
Pages 7,8: Unemployed search once or twice (for a seller).
$\psi_u$:probability of searching twice, searching once with prob $1-\psi_u$
$\nu$ is the probability of finding a seller.…
FooBar
- 10,712
- 1
- 29
- 60
5
votes
0 answers
How to interpret the proof that information cascades will form?
I am reading the 1992 paper of Bikchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch on information cascades. They claim and prove that, given an environment of sequential decision making, an information cascade will always form. The proof is in the appendix of their…
Rega Sota
- 51
- 1
3
votes
1 answer
A question about conditional expectation involving independence
If the vector $(u,v)$ is independent of the vector $x$, then I would like to show that
$$E(u|x,v)= E(u|v)$$
The only thing I can derive from the definitions is that if $(u,v)$ is independent of $x$, then $E( (u,v) | x)= E((u,v))$.
I can no longer…
PSE
- 133
- 3
2
votes
1 answer
Something Terrible is Happening - But When Is it Likely to have Happened?
We live in continuous time $t$ and something terrible is happening at a poisson rate of $r(t)$.
How can I compute the length $T$ such that with a probability of $P$ (for example, 0.99), at least one terrible thing has happened?
I know that for a…
FooBar
- 10,712
- 1
- 29
- 60
2
votes
3 answers
Investment and probability
Being a mathematician, I am familiar with probability calculations, but I need to ask a question related to investments and probability, and how this is handled seen from an economics view.
Given a project which involves two tasks, task 1 and task…
Paul
- 123
- 2