I am hoping to understand when an instrument is appropriate. For the purposes of this question, I'm considering a simplied version of the model in AJR (2000): $$\begin{aligned}\text{GDP} &\sim \text{Exprop} + \text{Latitude} \\ \text{Exprop} &\sim \log{\text{Mortality}} + \text{Latitude}\end{aligned}$$
My questions are:
- Does latitude need to be included? (If we believe that latitude has a causal effect on settler mortality, expropriation, and GDP, then my guess would be yes, since leaving it out would leave a correlation between log mortality and the residuals of GDP, through the effect of latitude?). Similarly/in general, would we need to control for anything that could possibly affect both the instrument and the outcome?
- Do we need to assume that the entire causal effect of log mortality on GDP is mediated through expropriation? Would it not be an appropriate instrument if the log mortality -> GDP causality could be mediated through something else (e.g. genetic diversity, folk traditions not related to institutions, etc)?