As of time of writing, many countries have been in lockdown for weeks or months, and the economic data coming out of that is usually quite grim. I'm wondering how being in lockdown relates to poor economic data. As I understand it the standard chain of reasoning goes like this:
- Country in lockdown means people stay at home, which means they spend less.
- In turn this means the services they would otherwise have bought get less revenue, which means less profit, which means they suffer and might have to lay off employees.
- Therefore unemployment increases and more people have no money.
- Therefore we get an economic crisis and recession.
However, #1 also means that people have more money. Some of them might earn less, but as a whole unless money is actually being taken out of the economy (and how would that happen?), the amount saved across the entire economy ought to balance the amount not earned. Therefore what actually happens is more "income inequality" (quotation marks here because it's the amount of money that each person has that becomes more unequal, not income itself). And if that is what happens and income inequality is the root cause of economic crises, why am I not seeing that in the media?
I don't get it, so hoping someone can explain.
Related: Who has the unspent money? which is about similar things, but doesn't go as far as this question does.