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I am looking for a dataset of ensemble forecasts and the associated true observed values. For example, a dataset containing $n$ ensemble forecasts of the temperature in 24 hours and the observed temperature 24 hours later. The ECMWF datasets look promising, but as a mathematician, I am not familiar with the terminology. Clicking on a dataset, this page for example, shows that "Analysis" and "Forecast" data is available. Are either of these the ensemble members or the observations? Downloading the data hasn't helped either.

Hasnep
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    can you edit the question and clarify what is meant by true values ? –  Apr 03 '19 at 14:43
  • @gansub You're right, I should have been more clear. Hopefully fixed now. – Hasnep Apr 03 '19 at 16:28
  • reanalysis is very close to observations. You cannot do observations of entire atmospheric column from surface to top of troposphere for entire world at high resolution. So remote sensing plus surface obs + model output is the optimal way. –  Apr 03 '19 at 16:44
  • Generally model forecast skill is not measured by comparing model forecast with observations because the resolutions of surface obs and satellite are different. You do a difference between Forecast(current period) and analysis. (when equations is NOT integrated). Please take a look at this Q/A - https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/2105/is-it-right-practice-to-validate-temperature-data-with-reanalysis-data/2112#2112 –  Apr 03 '19 at 16:48
  • Part of your question is a duplicate of this one - https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/2105/is-it-right-practice-to-validate-temperature-data-with-reanalysis-data/2112#2112. So edit the question to ask the information you want. –  Apr 03 '19 at 16:51
  • Would be useful to know how you're going to use these data. As the question gansub linked to suggests, there are subtleties and gotchas in comparing these things and there may be better routes to your goal. – Deditos Apr 04 '19 at 09:41

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