An object approximately the same size as Pluto, Eris, was discovered only 8 years ago (in 2005). Are there any Pluto-sized objects remaining to be discovered, and if so, how far away from the Sun would they have to be to not have been detected already?
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@RhysW my understanding (and I could be wrong) is that this question is about what limits us in observing more pluto or eris sized planets. – Oct 01 '13 at 09:46
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@UV-D: That's my understanding as well. We can be confident that there are no undiscovered Pluto-sized objects in the inner Solar System; if they existed, we certainly would have seen them by now. The question is, what is the corresponding level of confidence for such objects in the Kuiper Belt? – Keith Thompson Oct 01 '13 at 20:18
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So far, more than 2,000 Kuiper Belt objects, or KBOs, have been cataloged by observers, but they represent only a tiny fraction of the total number of objects scientists think are out there. Astronomers estimate there are hundreds of thousands of objects in the Kuiper Belt region that are at least 60 miles- (100 kilometers-) wide or larger. NASA does not give a reference where we might find estimates of the number of larger objects. – Keith McClary Nov 14 '20 at 20:50
2 Answers
This is a part answer to your question, as it is difficult to answer without speculating, so here are some facts/observations related to your question.
Asides from Pluto/Charon, Eris, Triton (could be a captured Kuiper Belt object), Makemake and the football shaped Haumea, most of the Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) are according to the article "Kuiper Belt Objects: Facts about the Kuiper Belt & KBOs" (Redd, 2012):
thousands of bodies more than 62 miles (100 km) in diameter travel around the sun within this belt, along with trillions of smaller objects, many of which are short-period comets
and is believed to have a total mass of only a tenth of the Earth, according to the article "Forming the Kuiper Belt by the Outward Transport of Objects During Neptune's Migration" (Levison and Morbidelli).
Here is a list Of the many Transneptunian Objects that have been documented, detailing their absolute magnitudes.
In regards to one of your main questions - according to Redd (2012), the challenge in their detection is
Because of their small size and distant location, Kuiper Belt Objects are a challenge to spot from Earth. Infrared measurements from NASA's space-based telescope, Spitzer, have helped to nail down sizes for the largest objects.
I would add, their irregular elliptical orbits* and extreme (compared to the major planets) inclination to ecliptic make it that much more difficult to detect them. Additionally, according to "The Edge of the Solar System" website, further difficulties include low surface reflectivity.
- An example of a possible KBO with an extremely elliptical orbit is Sedna, which is believed to take over 10,000 years to orbit the sun; is smaller than Pluto, but was observed at about 90AU (3 times further than Pluto).
So, there could be many small Pluto-sized 'dark' worlds in highly elliptical irregular orbits in the Kuiper Belt and beyond. However, beyond those listed, we have not seen that many and the total mass theorised does not support the idea of too many in existence, but that does not mean that they are not out there.
There are no discovered TNOs that would be as large as Eris (which is a little bit smaller than Pluto) or larger, but recent observation lead to a new estimate of Haumea's equatorial diameter that could be 2322 km (1443 mi) and thus about as large as that of Eris. However, Haumea has an extremely weird shape, it is very flattened on the poles and its equatorial diameter is in one axe shorter and in the other axe longer (the diameter I mentioned). Haumea's mass is a third of Pluto's.
Other than those three bodies Pluto, Eris and Haumea, it is unlikely they will discover anything at their sizes or larger beyond Neptune, except for the hypothetical planet IX whose existence is assumed from the orbits of scattered disc objects. The planet would either be a super-Earth or a mini-Neptune or it might also be a primordial black hole.
So the claims that there would be so many Pluto-sized objects in the Kuiper belt are just plain wrong.
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1Do you have a source for it being "unlikely they will discover....."? – Steve Linton Nov 14 '20 at 21:13
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@SteveLinton They already discovered all objects the size of Eris or larger whose orbits are entirely in the Kuiper belt (and Eris isn't, it just crosses it but its aphelion is outside the belt) so any undiscovered Pluto-sized KBO would have to either be very dark for some reason, or would just be a Kuiper belt crosser/close-comer like Eris or Sedna. – John Nov 15 '20 at 07:45